Saturday, June 20, 2015

Terrorism and airstrikes follow the failure of peace talks in Yemen. Yahoo/AFP.

Civilians near the wreckage of a car bombing. Yahoo/AFP.

A car bombing and airstrikes have followed the collapse of peace talks in Yemen. Yahoo/AFP. The car bombing killed two people outside of a Shiite Mosque in Saana, the capital, which has been taken by the Houthi rebels. ISIS has taken responsibility for the attack, which comes during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. ISIS also took responsibility for bombings on Wednesday that killed 31 people. In the port city of Aden, Saudi Arabia sent in more airstrikes targeting the Houthi rebels. Aden is currently a major battle zone between the Houthi rebels and government loyalists, with the Saudis supporting the government. The violence comes after the peace talks in Geneva fell apart with no agreement being reached. Both sides blamed each other for the failure. The Houthis wanted an end to airstrikes and the Yemeni government wanted the Houthis to withdraw. Neither side would accept the other sides demands. So far, the war in Yemen has killed 2,600 people and has left 80% of Yemen's people in need of aid. 

My Comment:
I'm not too surprised that the peace talks failed. Though I do think both sides want an end to the war, I also think that neither side is weak enough to give up. The Houthis have captured a decent portion of Yemen and feel they deserve to hold onto what they have captured. The Yemeni government is not in as good of a position, but they have very powerful allies, and the threat of Saudi Arabia and other coalition member deploying ground troops. Nobody is exactly on the brink of collapse either, both sides have military advantages and neither is very close to winning the war on the battlefield alone.

With both sides feeling like they are in a relative position of strength it is not at all surprising that neither would back down. Especially when you consider what the demands were. Giving up all the territory the Houthis captured is not going to be acceptable to them. And stopping the airstrikes is not going to be acceptable to the Saudi government. Something is going to have to happen on the ground to change those demands or make either side back down.

In the chaos that is Yemen right now it appears that ISIS is expanding to yet another country. I would mention that it is always wise to give all claims of responsibility from ISIS with a large grain of salt. They like to take credit for attacks they had nothing to do with, just because of the publicity. It's a good strategy for them, since they reap the rewards without having to actually do anything, but it makes it difficult to get an actual accounting of  who is responsible for what. 

I do know that ISIS is active in Yemen now and it is possible that they did conduct these attacks. Since the targets were Shiite Muslims I would say that it is a strong possibility. Every other faction in the region would mostly leave Shiite civilians alone, with the only exception being al-Qaedea's Yemeni faction, the AQAP. Since ISIS has a major goal in fermenting tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims, these attacks was most likely committed by them. 

Either way, the fact that ISIS had gotten a foothold in yet another country undergoing a civil war shows a very strong pattern. In countries where their is instability and a large Sunni Muslim population, ISIS seems to always crop up. Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Afghanistan and now Yemen as well, the organization has shown up wherever there is the opportunity to do so. There should be a lesson there against any further "wars of choice" in the Middle East. Whenever there is a power vacuum, something will fill it, and right now that something is Islamic extremism. 

Finally, it seems like Yemen is going to be another one of those countries where everyone shows up to fight a war. Not only are there the two main factions, the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels, everyone else in the region has a stake in the outcome as well. The Saudis and many of the Arab states are fighting with the government against the Houthis and their Iranian sponsors. Al-Qaeda has their most effective group in the region, though the AQAP just had their leadership destroyed by yet another faction, the United States. Add ISIS into the mix and you have a situation that's not unlike Syria. And we all know how Syria ended up... 

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