Iraq's plan to take Mosul from ISIS is probably a pipe dream. The Daily Beast.

Troops on patrol. The Daily Beast/AFP/Getty.

Iraq's plan to retake the city of Mosul from ISIS is a fantasy. The Daily Beast. Iraq's general in charge of the plan says the offensive will begin this year. The troops are being positioned even now and consist of three whole divisions, a couple of  additional battalions, some Sunni irregular troops and perhaps even some special forces units. In total, the general says he has 30,000 troops to use in the attack. These estimates were met with skepticism by western experts who say there is no way that Iraq has that many troops in the area. One of the divisions, the 15th, was almost destroyed during the last battle for Mosul and exists mostly on paper. There is also little evidence that troops are being moved for the offensive. 

There is some question if the residents of Mosul even want to be liberated. Not only are they afraid of the Shiite militias, who have a record of abusing Sunni civilians, they are concerned about the inevitable destruction that any major battle would cause. It also seems unlikely that the Shiite militias and the Kurdish military would be interested in fighting for Mosul, a Sunni city far away from their bases of power. 

My Comment:

The plans this Iraqi general came up with were so unrealistic that I almost believe that the entire article is just disinformation. Iraq just does not have the forces ready to attack the city. The regular Iraqi Army was all but destroyed in the battle of Mosul and was pretty much finished off during the fall of Ramadi. They still have forces but their morale has been destroyed. And what forces remain are in Anbar, trying to take back Ramadi, or at least stop the ISIS advance. 

And the article is right, the Shia militias and Kurdish Peshmerga have little reason to take back Mosul. The Shia militias are primarily Iranian proxies and their goal is to spread Shia Islam, not recapture a Sunni city. And after what happened during the recapture or Tikrit, where the militias looted and burned the city and murdered civilians, do we even want them to help? And the Kurds goal is primarily to defend the Kurdish people. Though I am sure the Kurds would love to take Mosul as a Kurdish city, there is no way the Iraqi government would allow that to happen. So they have little reason to fight either. 

That leaves the Iraqi army and any Sunni tribals that aren't already allied to ISIS. The Americans are trying to train up these forces but at this point it probably isn't worth it. Given how the Iraqi military has performed in Mosul and Ramadi, training them might be worthless. There is a good chance that in any battle they will just throw down their shiny new guns and run away. And there are questions about the loyalty of the Sunni militias. There is a chance that they will go over to ISIS instead of fighting for the government. 

All that an more makes me thing that this article was a misdirection campaign by the Iraqi government. After all, if ISIS believes this report and moves their troops around it may help Iraq win the battles in Anbar province, battles which are much more important that retaking Mosul. After all, ISIS is very close to Baghdad itself. There is no battle in the war that is more important. Much like the phony army led by Patton in World War II, this may be nothing more then a distraction. After all, the last time the Iraqi government made noise about re-taking Mosul, they went on offensive at Tikrit instead. 

So will Mosul ever be liberated? I am sure at some point it will be, but it won't be this year. It probably won't even be next year. But it will happen at some point. Who knows who will be responsible for it though. At this point it seems unlikely that the Iraqi Army's situation will change anytime soon. And I doubt any foreign government will deploy troops, with the possible exception of Iran. Sooner or later though someone will liberate Mosul.