Homeland Security has issued a terror warning for the 4th of July. USA Today.

Homeland Security Department headquarters. USA Today/AP.

Homeland Security and the FBI has issued a terror warning for the 4th of July on the heels of several major terror attacks overseas. USA Today. Though there are no specific threats that have been identified, it is feared that terrorists may use the holiday for an attack against police or civilian targets. The warnings come after law enforcement has disrupted several terror plots. Officers shot and killed a man who had planned to attack police in Massachusetts, while a New York man was arrested after attacking a FBI agent who was investigating him for attempting to make pressure cooker bombs. There is also concern of further racial violence after the shooting in Charleston.  

My Comment:

Normally a non-specific terror warning wouldn't rate comment on this blog, but I think it deserves to be talked about this time. Yes the FBI and Homeland Security like to overplay threats. After all nobody wants to be the equivalent of the guy at Pearl Harbor that ignored a bunch of radar contacts back in 1941. But given recent events, the chances might be a bit higher then normal for something to happen.

As I mentioned all last week, ISIS is on a role lately. The three terror attacks in France, Tunisia and Kuwait, along with the devastating raid on Kobani and the developments from their offensive in northeastern Syria all add up to a lot of media attention for ISIS. Though the gay marriage Supreme Court case pushed ISIS out of the news, they still reach thousands of people. It isn't a stretch of the imagination that a lone wolf terrorist could decide that the 4th is a perfect opportunity for an attack. And it is possible that their al-Qaeda competitors could move up some plans to wrestle some attention back from ISIS, though at this point I don't even think they are capable of doing so. 

There is also a small chance that the gay marriage announcement could anger someone enough that they could do an attack as well. Though the stereotypical threat is from a right wing extremist, don't forget that ISIS and other Islamic extremists don't particularity like homosexuality either. Indeed, ISIS generally executes any gays they find, so it is possible that a radical Muslim could be angry about the Supreme Court's decision in addition to whatever non-Muslims that are upset about too. That isn't to say that there isn't a threat from a non-Muslim terrorist, I just think it's possible that the event could be a trigger for Jihadists, Not that they need much of a trigger in the first place, but it bears mentioning.

If any attack does occur, expect it to be a spur of the moment kind of attack instead of a well planned out massacre like the attack in Tunisia or Kuwait. My guess is that some radical, be it Islamic or otherwise, could just decide that this is the time to grab a weapon and try and hurt some people. The good news is that these kinds of attacks usually fail, in America at least. Even the attack in France, which involved one man who killed his boss, was more spontaneous then planned. And, other then the decapitation and the propaganda effects of publicizing the attack, it failed completely. In a country with trigger happy cops and a strong gun culture, any spur of the moment attack is likely to fail and fail spectacularly. 

And it's not like there isn't going to be security at pretty much every 4th of July celebration in the country. Even Podunk USA will have cops on duty to keep on eye on things. My guess any spur of the moment attack on the 4th will fail quickly. A successful terror attack taking planning and training and any lone wolf attacker isn't going to have much of either. 

My advice to anyone worried about an attack in America on the 4th is to not worry about it all that much. As always, take notice of your surroundings but keep in mind that even with this alert the chances of your 4th of July celebrations being attacked are extremely low. And even if an attack happens, it is extremely unlikely that the attackers will accomplish much. Like I said before, security agencies like to hype up the threat. The threat is real, but remote. 

Honestly, I think the chances of an overseas attack is much greater on any given day of the week then it is here in America on a major holiday like Independence Day. We don't have a large radicalized Muslim population and our right wingers are, for the most part, harmless. Neither of those things are true for Europe and the situation is even worse in the Middle East. 

I would be very surprised if there was any kind of major terrorist attack on the 4th of July in America. But given recent events, and the amount of coverage and chatter about the recent terror attacks, I would also be surprised if there isn't another lone wolf attack somewhere soon. My guess is that it will be in Europe yet again. But I doubt it will happen here.