The government of Yemen and the Houthi rebels have agreed to peace talks.

Yemeni loyalists fire rockets at Houthi positions. Yahoo/AFP. 

The government of Yemen and the Shiite Houthi rebel group have agreed to peace talks. Yahoo/AFP. The talks, which are set to begin on June 14th, are the first major effort to end the war, which has killed 2000 people and caused a humanitarian disaster. The talks will take place in Geneva, Switzerland and will try to broker both a cease fire and an increase in humanitarian aid. The war, and the Saudi Arabian air campaign has resulted in 80% of the Yemeni population to be in need of aid. The Houthis want an end to the air campaign against them. 

My Comment:

Let's hope these talks actually get somewhere. Yemen has been devastated by this war and they are in dire need of humanitarian aid. The people of Yemen can't afford for this war to go on any further. And a diplomatic solution could prevent the threat of a ground invasion from Saudi Arabia and their allies. 

As always, this war was primarily a proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Both Yemen and the Houthis are pawns for their masters. But it looks like the pawns are starting to get sick of being treated as pawns. Both sides seem like they are sick of the fighting. And with both sides sending delegates to this peace conference they may be able to find some common ground. 

One wonders how Iran and Saudi Arabia will react to this. Like I said, this a proxy conflict. It seems like Iran is realizing that it was outmaneuvered. They aren't going to risk a drawn out fight with Saudi Arabia and backed down when the Saudis, with a little help from a U.S. carrier group, threatened one of their naval convoys. This prevented them from resupplying, along with the destruction of Yemeni airfields under Houthi controls. 

With the Houthis cut off from aid, it makes sense that Iran would approve of negotiations. Their position isn't likely to improve as time goes on. Still, the Houthis are a big enough threat, and control enough territory, to have a decent hand at the negotiating table. It's not the best position they could be in, but they could still gain prestige and carry out some of their goals. 

Both sides would get some what they wanted with a settlement. The Saudis get their Yemeni proxies back in control of Yemen. They also ensure that the entire state doesn't fall to the Shiite Houthis. Iran weakens the government of Yemen and ensures that the Houthis have a say in their government. 

Of course, it's very possible that either side could decide to just give up on the peace talks and go for a total victory. That probably wouldn't be a wise decision and it would be a tragedy for everyone involved, but the stakes are so high I can see it happening. I still think there is a high chance that this ends with a Saudi invasion of Yemen and Iran's proxy army getting defeated. 

Another factor is terrorism. Both ISIS and Al-Qaeda are active in Yemen. It's possible that as these talks progress, the terrorist groups will attack all sides. Though an Iraqi style collapse is unlikely, the terrorist groups could be an x-factor that derails the talks. Either way, I wish everyone involved was more concerned with fighting the Jihadists then each others...