Afghanistan lost 20,000 troops last year to combat, desertion and discharge. New York Times

Afghan soldier firing a RPG-7. USMC/Wikimedia Commons.

Afghanistan lost 20,000 troops last year, due to combat deaths, discharges and desertion. New York Times. In one year the size of the Afghan military decreased from a peak of 190,000 troops to roughly 169,000 at the end of the year. Not all of those numbers are of uniformed soldiers as civilians working for the military were counted as well. Before leaving the number two American General stationed in Afghanistan, General Joseph Anderson called the rate of deaths for the ANA (Afghan National Army) was "unsustainable". With so many troops lost, concerns are being raised to the roughly 10,000 U.S. troops and various military contractors still left in Afghanistan. It is unclear if the ANA will be able to stand on its own now that the U.S. combat mission is officially "over". 2014 was the worst year for combat deaths with over 1200 dying, with the rest be desertions and discharges. Criticism has been raised because the Pentagon recently classified information pertaining to the strength and disposition of the ANA. 

My Comment:

More bad news out of Afghanistan. Am I surprised? Of course not. The Taliban is just as strong as it ever has been. As long as they have bases and training camps in Pakistan, where the ANA can't touch them, they will exist. And they aren't giving up Afghanistan for anything. I am also not surprised that the ANA is as weak as it is. 169,000 troops is nothing to sneeze at but you must remember that most of those troops won't be the front line infantry fighters. Many of them will be in logistics and support. Those troops on the front line are green and are fighting without the help of United States soldiers for the first time. 

So how does this end? One of two ways. Either we abandon Afghanistan to its fate like we did with South Vietnam or we deploy combat troops back to the United States. Neither of those options are acceptable to almost anyone involved. Admittedly, I don't think the American public would care all that much if we abandoned Afghanistan, but it is not a desirable outcome. I guess there is still a possibility of a third option. I have heard rumors of talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government but who knows if anything will come from that? 

My fear is that Afghanistan will collapse like Iraq did, starting up yet another major war. That's not to say that the war in Afghanistan isn't a major war, but for the most part it is now a local one with local fighters. The last thing we need is for the Taliban to take over, or perhaps even the Islamic State, and draw in new fighters. Should the government collapse, or even lose a major piece of territory to the Taliban, we may have to go in again to clear out any Al-Qaeda bases that could be hosted there. It is possible that the Taliban may turn on Al-Qaeda in some kind of negotiated peace, but I don't see that being likely. 

Frankly there are no good options in Afghanistan and there hasn't been any for years and years. I do know that despite Obama's proclamation that the American role in the war is over, it is anything but. If the ANA can't do there job then it is possible that the government may need help or collapse. If that looks like it will happen I am expecting for U.S. troops to deploy to either prevent it from happening or clean up the mess afterwards...