Iraqi Security forces in training. The Daily Beast/Reuters.
The operation to take back the city of Mosul from ISIS has been put on hold until next fall. The Daily Beast. The operation was scheduled to begin in the next few weeks but was put on hold by the government of Iraq. The Pentagon was hoping the offensive would happen before summer due to concerns about the weather and the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The plan fell apart when it became clear that the Iraqi forces reserved for the operation would not be ready in time. The earlier plan called for 25,000 troops made up eight brigades of Iraqi fighters to attack in April, but Iraq just does not have the troops for that. Their two best divisions are guarding Baghdad, and there are very few other troops available. Sectarian issues were raised as well, as it would be unclear if the wider Arab world would accept a major attack on a Sunni held area by a largely Shia attack force.
My Comment:
Not surprising at all. There was no way this attack was going to happen on the time frame the Pentagon had set up. Iraq barely has an army, and what little they have is focused on protecting the rest of the country. They aren't capable of offensive action yet and I doubt that will change in the fall. What little military force they do have is in desperate need of training and support. These things take years to accomplish if you want a force that is capable of fighting effectively.
So that leaves the offensive in the hands of other groups. The Kurds could send fighters because they have a large professional military, but I doubt the government of Iraq trusts them. If they take Mosul, they might keep it, and that would not be acceptable for the government of Iraq. Iran's proxy Shia militias could fight as well, but they have their own problems. Not the least of which is they have committed war crimes against Sunni civilians before. If they were to participate in the attack on Mosul they could kill thousands of innocent people. Both groups could attack now but neither of these options are good, so that leaves Iraq's depleted and demoralized army as the only force able to attack. This offensive will take some serious time to get off the ground.
And the whole time this offensive is delayed, ISIS will be working to fortify Mosul. They are already digging trenches and moving supplies around. They are also working hard to convince the people of Mosul that they are a better option then the Shia led Iraqi government. People tend to downplay the sectarian nature of this war. The Sunni may hate ISIS, but they fear Shia Islam and the Iranian government much, much more. They also won't be happy to fight for a government that abandoned them last summer. If the Iraqi government were to attack, expect fierce resistance, not only from ISIS, but from Sunni fighters in the area as well.
As for the Pentagon, this whole affair is embarrassing. They never should have announced this offensive in the first place (same with the Iraqi government). Not only did they give away any sense of strategic surprise, they should have known that there was no way they were going to pull this off. They have a better picture of what forces in Iraq are ready to fight but they still somehow missed that Iraq's army will pretty much have to be rebuilt before they can go on the offensive. This is also a propaganda victory for ISIS since it makes both our government and the government of Iraq look incompetent and weak. If there is one thing ISIS doesn't need it is more propaganda victories...
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