The Iraqi offensive against ISIS in Tikrit has bogged down. Yahoo/Reuters

An Iraqi soldier praying before the start of the battle. Yahoo/Reuters.

The new offensive to take back Tikrit from ISIS has bogged down for the third strait day. Yahoo/Reuters. The battle has changed from a swift moving offensive that took half the city to a series of skirmishes and sniper attacks. The attack sputtered out on Friday when supplies and reinforcements were requested. Those supplies and reinforcements have not yet arrived. The Iraqi and Shia militia fighters are facing brutal house to house fighting with many bombs and booby traps scattered everywhere. Iraqi forces are split in two with attacks in both the north and south of the city. 

My Comment:

Looks like the battle of Tikrit isn't going quite as well as we had hoped. I said in my last post about this battle that since the Iraqi forces so outnumbered the enemy they should win, but only if they didn't have any morale and supply problems. Flash forward a few days and that is exactly what they have. 

I missed a major factor for this battle and that is probably the most important factor in any battle. Logistics. Iraq may have 20,000 to 30,000 troops while ISIS has nowhere near as many but if they can't move up supplies and reinforcements it doesn't matter. ISIS has an advantage here because they were prepared to keep Tikrit. I am sure they stockpiled supplies before and during the battle, and with no U.S. air cover they are probably able to move around troops and equipment without much trouble. Iraq has longer supply lines and hasn't given much indication that they have much skill when it comes to logistics. Iraq also has to coordinate between their troops and the Iranian backed militias. They also need to work with the Kurds and to get them to try and pressure ISIS supply lines as well. 

Iraq will still almost certainly win this battle but any hopes of a quick victory will be dashed if they can't get their logistical problems sorted out. ISIS will be using this time to either bring in more troops and supplies or evacuate so more of their troops and equipment survive the battle. They could be doing both by withdrawing from weak points and fortifying strong ones. They are also being given time to create more traps and bombs to make the offensive even more costly. In short, every day this offensive is delayed will cost the Iraqi's dearly. 

What's my prediction for this battle? Iraq will eventually get its supplies and reinforcements into battle but the delay will cost them dearly. ISIS will have had time to prepare and decide how they want to fight the battle. The real question I don't have an answer for is if they will fight to hold the city or evacuate most of their fighters. My guess is they will fight it out, meaning that this will be a bloody and hard fought battle. I don't see Iraq losing the battle but I don't know what condition the Iraqi Army will be in when it is finished. 

Of course the longer the battle goes on the worse it is for the civilians caught in the crossfire. Having a major battle in a city is always terrible for the population. But when both sides are known for committing atrocities, the situation is much, much worse. My fear is that the longer the battle goes on the better the chances are that the Shia militias get frustrated and take out that frustration on the Sunni population. As far as I know that hasn't happened yet in this battle but the longer it goes on the chances go up.