Iraq continues its new offensive against ISIS in Tikrit. Yahoo/Reuters.

Iraqi troops and Shia fighters load a rocket launcher. Yahoo/Reuters.

Thousands of Iraqi soldiers and Iranian backed militia units are attempting to cut off the ISIS held city of Tikrit. Yahoo/Reuters. Report say that Iran is heavily involved in the new offensive. The top Iranian commander in the area, Qassem Soleimani, has been reported to be coordinating the attack from the front lines. U.S. involvement seems to be minimal to non-existent, most likely due to the large number of Shia militias and the strong Iranian presence in the area. So far the attack has not reached Tikrit, or the town al-Dour, another major ISIS stronghold. The new offensive is the first in the area since last years Camp Speicher massacre, where hundreds of Iraqi soldiers were executed. Shia militias have called the operation "revenge" for the attack.  

My Comment:

Back when I posted about the speculative Mosul offensive I wondered if perhaps it was all a ruse to cause ISIS to move their forces around so they were weaker in other areas. With this new attack, I'm fairly confident that this was the case. How effective it was, or if it indeed had any effect at all, remains to be seen. It is possible that this attack is just a preliminary attack for that offensive, or that Tikrit was the main objective the whole time. And it is also possible that the reports were genuine and Iraq really thought that they could pull off an attack on Mosul in the spring. Whatever the case is this attack is happening and the Mosul attack is not.

I've got some reservations about this new offensive. Namely, Iran seems way too involved for me to be comfortable. If the reports of the Iranian commander is directing the attack are true, and I have no reason to doubt they are, that means that Iran is basically controlling the Iraqi army. Iran also control the Shia militias, which have a grudge against Sunni Muslims. They have massacred ISIS fighters before, committing war crimes basically, on several occasions. I have zero sympathy for ISIS of course, but the fear is that these militias will do the same thing to Sunni civilians.

If that does happen then Iraq loses the moral high ground they have enjoyed to this point of the war. I mentioned a few posts ago that this is largely a sectarian war and that the conflict between Sunni and Shia Islam is a major factor in why ISIS was able to have so much success. In short, many Sunnis, if not sympathetic to ISIS, fear them much less then they fear Iran and Shia Muslims. Many of them remember the Iran-Iraq war and the government of Nuri al-Maliki was very biased against Sunnis. Any slaughter of civilians in Tikrit or the surrounding villages will drive Sunni Muslims into the arms of ISIS. The talk about "revenge" for the Camp Speicher massacre makes me think that this will be the outcome.

That's assuming that this offensive goes anywhere of course. What are the chances of that? Not as bad as you might think. With the Shia militias giving the Iraq Army a little backbone, they might actually resemble an effective fighting force. But with the U.S. military not supporting the offensive, I wonder if they can pull if off. It is possible that the Iranians will send in their own air support. Indeed, in the past they have sent F-4 Phantoms on bombing runs, so they have the capability. Still, if they do end up winning the battle for Tikrit, it is going to be a tough, bloody fight. I want Iraq to defeat ISIS of course, but both sides are going to get a bloody nose. And if the Iranian backed militias do end up taking revenge then the war will be going to an even darker place...