A Ukrainian soldier jumping off of a tank damaged in Debaltseve. Yahoo/Reuters.
Rebels are getting closer to closing the Debaltseve pocket while Ukraine's National Guard have started a new offensive near Mariupol. Yahoo/Reuters. Rebels are pushing hard in Debaltseve, which is a major rail hub between the two rebellious cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Capturing the city would link the two cities and trap a major portion of the Ukraine Army. Rebels are also launching rocket attacks targeting positions far beyond the front lines. Meanwhile, Kiev has announced a new offensive by their volunteer battalions in the south of the country near the strategic city of Mariupol. They claim that their units are having success in the south but provide little evidence for their claims. The attack comes after reports of rebels massing troops in the area. Both sides are trying to gain ground on the eve of peace talks involving European leaders and Russia.
My Comment:
The situation for Ukraine seems very bad right now. All indications are that they are going to lose the battle for Debaltseve. As I said previously, it isn't just the town, it is a major pocket of troops that could be cut off as well. Ukraine needs to pull out and pull out quickly if they hope to save those troops. Once those troops are surrounded they will have little choice other then surrender or destruction. Ukraine, of course, can not afford to lose that many troops and that much equipment. Defeat in Debatlseve won't mean that Ukraine has lost the war, but it would bring it that much closer to defeat.
The attack in Mariupol isn't going to change anything in Debaltseve. It's too far away and I doubt there will be any major breakthrough. Indeed, I'm not quite sure if I trust Kiev when they say that they are pushing the rebels back. The rebels were massing troops in the area and were in defensive positions. Unless the Ukrainians did some kind of flanking move, I am guessing that any defeats they inflicted on the rebels will be temporary ones. They could delay or even stop the attack on Mariupol though, which is almost certainly their goal.
It seems obvious to me that Ukraine cares more about Mariupol then Debaltseve. Both are strategically important but losing Mariupol would be a bitter pill to swallow. Mariupol is a major transportation hub and is an important port on the Sea of Azov. Losing it would have massive economic consequences. Considering Ukraine's economy is already reeling that could lead to the utter collapse of the government. I'm calling it now, Ukraine is going to lose this war. The only thing that could possibly save them is massive Western intervention, and I don't see that happening since it would be World War III.
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