A U.S. State Department intelligence photo claiming to show Russian rocket launchers and artillery near Debaltseve. CBS News.
The cease fire in Ukraine seems to holding except in the critical region of Debaltseve where thousands of Ukrainian troops are trapped. CBS/AP. After fierce fighting leading up to the cease fire, calm has come back to most of Ukraine, except for the critical rail junction of Debaltseve. Rebels claim that the troops in the pocket are completely surrounded while Ukraine claims that one highway remains open. The rebels are claiming that since the troops in the Debaltseve are completely surrounded, attacking them does not violate the cease fire agreement since that area is no longer the line of confrontation. Meanwhile the United States claims to have credible evidence that Russia was supplying artillery and rockets for the battle of Debatlseve and published photographs as evidence. As part of the agreement both sides have agreed to pull back heavy weapons from the front and Ukraine has agreed to start paying pensions for civilians living in the Donbass region.
My Comment:
This cease fire is doomed. There is almost no chance of it succeeding long term at this point. With so many troops trapped behind enemy lines Ukraine has only two options at this point. Surrender or stage a breakout. Any breakout will end the ceasefire. And Ukraine can afford to lose the roughly 8000 troops stationed in the Debaltseve pocket. Though Ukraine claims to hold the highway out of the region I would not take their word on it. I also don't think that rebel control of the exit is as strong as it could be.
It really is the perfect situation for the rebels. They are getting a chance to rest and rearm in the other theaters of this war, such as near Mariupol where they had some setbacks recently. And they also have a decent chance of blaming Ukraine for breaking the cease fire when Ukraine tries to either break out of the Debaltseve pocket, or break back in. They have nothing to lose except for those pension payment for the Ukrainians still in Donbass... which the Ukrainian government can't afford to pay anyways. It's win win all around for the rebels.
A few things are very clear to me now about this conflict. Ukraine can't win it. Not militarily and not diplomatically. The rest of the world isn't going to go to war with Russia to save Ukraine's claim on the Donbass region. Their economy is in shambles and their military is in a desperate situation. The people are sick of war and are terrified of losing there sons and even daughters in a conflict that they no longer want. Moreover their enemies, the rebels, know that they are winning and have the backing of a much more powerful government who is willing to send troops to die for their cause. This cease fire is doomed and so is any chance of Ukraine winning the war.
The question now becomes what happens when the rebels win? Will they become independent or will they be annexed by Russia, or will they just be an semi-independent region of Ukraine? Either way, I wonder if it was worth it for them. They will get their independence in some form or another but at a huge cost in lives and money.
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