Are rebels planning an attack on Mariupol? Ukraine thinks so. Yahoo/Reuters.

Destroyed cars in Mariupol. Yahoo/Reuters.

Ukraine is accusing pro-Russian rebels of gathering forces on the port city of Mariupol. Yahoo/Reuters. Ukraine has also accused Russia of sending reinforcements consisting of troops and armor to the region. Any attack on the city of Mariupol, a key port city on the Sea of Azov, would end the cease fire. Ukraine is also claiming that the rebels are sending out scouts and sappers to conduct intelligence and sabotage in the area. Reuters reporters on the ground with the rebels did not report any new tanks but did report men wearing what looked like Russian special forces uniforms. Those rebels denied any build up in the area. The United States has also claimed to have seen new reinforcements in the area. The tension comes on the one year anniversary of the overthrow of the old government led by pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich.

My Comment:

As always take whatever the Ukrainian government says with a huge grain of salt. I'm not saying it is impossible that the rebels are building forces, but don't just take their word for it. The United States has a bit more credibility, but the reporters on the ground didn't see much. My guess is that the rebels really do want to take Mariupol. It is a hugely important trade hub and has symbolic value as well. I just don't think they are going to be the ones to break the cease fire. At least not yet. 

The rebels still need to consolidate their victories in the north. Debaltseve just fell and they need to secure the area. Though they are in better shape then the Ukrainian forces, they too need time to rest, rearm and repair. They also have the luxury of waiting. Every day that the Ukrainian rebellion continues, even with a cease fire, it is costing the government millions of dollars. They are also having huge recruitment problems, I read an unverified report that they are even trying to call up Ukrainian citizens that were adopted by foreigners and now live in other countries. I don't know if that is even true, but what is known for sure is that they are running out of manpower. And even if they did have the bodies they don't have the money to pay them. 

I think that Ukraine will end up losing Mariupol in the end. I don't think it will happen for awhile, the cease fire will hold for a little while yet. But I just don't see them being able to defend it. The rebels have Mariupol as a major goal and won't stop fighting until they get it. They also have been better supplied then Ukraine has and are getting support from Russian "volunteers" as well. The best thing Ukraine could do is make some kind of agreement with the rebels. Losing Debaltseve basically cost them the war. It's time for them to stop throwing good money after bad. If they are able to they might be able to keep Mariupol. If they don't they will lose it and perhaps everything else.