Rebels in Ukraine are massing for attacks on Mariupol and Debaltseve. Yahoo/Reuters

Some of the damage in Donetsk, Ukraine. Yahoo/Reuters.

Rebels in Ukraine are massing to attack Mariupol and Debaltseve while emergency talks are happening in Russia. Yahoo/Reuters. Debaltseve is a major rail and transportation hub and is in danger of being completely surrounded by the rebels. Ukrainian troops are trying to evacuate the town while at the same time engaging the rebels in artillery duels. Ukraine claims that they have enough firepower to stop the rebels, but it remains unclear if they will actually be able to do so. In the south, near the Sea of Azov, the city of Mariupol are gathering forces for an assault on the city. The city had already come under Grad missile attack last month. 30 people died in that attack, showing the vulnerability of the city. Mariupol is a critical city because it is the last thing in the way for a direct connection between the rebels and the Crimean peninsula, which the Russians annexed last year. Meanwhile, in Russia, Vladimir Putin, Francois Hollande, and Angela Merkel are meeting with hopes of ending the crisis. Though there is no indication that a last minute deal will be reached, Merkel rejected calls to arm Ukraine. 

My Comment:

I'll talk about the military implications of this article first. From what I understand Debatseve is almost certainly going to fall to the rebels. They have the town surrounded by two sides and are in danger of cutting it off completely. Looking at some situation maps of the area it looks like there is a whole region that could be cut off by taking the town. Troops and civilians could be cut off from friendly lines and whole units could be destroyed. This is, of course, very bad news for Ukraine. Time will tell if they are able to hold the town, but my prediction is that it falls. They are running out of troops, weapons and, most importantly, money. 

As for Mariupol, you may remember the devastating Grad rocket attack on it last month. That was a prelude to this battle. Although the attack hasn't begun yet I have heard from multiple sources that the rebels are massing near the city. Mariupol has huge economic and military importance, so it is an obvious target for an attack. The fact that it would help link up Crimea and Russia, through rebel held territory, is also a huge consideration. 

Of course there will be those who say that Russia is behind all of this. That is true to some extent of course, but it isn't the whole story. The people in the Donetsk and Luhansk area are incredibly stubborn and have a long history of rebellion. It is wrong to think that Putin is completely in control of them. He does have considerable influence so there is a possibility that something could come of these talks. To me it seems that all parties involved would benefit to the end of the war... except the rebels. They want control of more territory and the city of Mariupol. Even if Putin and the West are sick of the war, the rebels may still want to fight. Of course, even a cease fire would lessen the loss of life, but even that seems unlikely. 

I'll continue to monitor these battles and if one or both of these cities fall I will post about it. If either city falls it will probably go down in history as one of the most important battles of the Ukrainian Civil War. If the cities do fall, I expect the rebels to win. Ukraine is on its back feet right now and its economy is collapsing. These battles might push them over the edge and make them come to the negotiating table with the understanding that the rebels are going to get most of what they want.