The plan to take Mosul back from ISIS. BBC.

Iraqi security forces. BBC/AFP.

A joint strike force of Iraqi soldiers and Kurdish fighters 25,000 troops strong, is gathering to attack Mosul from ISIS. BBC. Mosul, Iraq's second largest city home to more then a million people, fell to ISIS last June. An estimated 1,000 to 2,000 ISIS fighters currently hold the city. It is unknown if U.S. troops will be involved in the offensive to provide forward air control for any airstrikes, but it is known that all of the fighters will be trained by the U.S. military. The exact timeline of the attack is unknown but it would have to be by May, before the heat of the summer bogs things down. Announcing a major offensive is very unusual but officials defended the move because ISIS has been in retreat in both Iraq and Syria. 

My Comment:

Very unusual indeed. I don't like the fact that the governments of Iraq and the United States have announced this offensive. It will give ISIS a chance to dig in and plan for their defense. If you look at the numbers it would seem that ISIS is at a huge disadvantage. If they really only do have 1,000 fighters in Mosul that might have some truth to that. I suspect that the numbers are greater though. They will get help from local Sunni tribesman, old school Baathist fighters and other affiliated groups. And since the attack has been broadcast throughout the world, I fully expect that Mosul will be reinforced. 

It is important to note that this could be misinformation or propaganda. Using the media to create a false impression of what you are going to try to do is a classic tactic. If the enemy thinks that there is going to be a major attack on Mosul they will move their troops around, possibly leaving open other avenues for an attack. Though it is possible, I doubt that this is the case. Iraq has been fairly incompetent in fighting against ISIS and I don't think they are capable of this much deception. 

As a matter of fact I don't think Iraq is capable of fighting this battle. My prediction for this battle is that the Iraqi forces will melt away due to poor leadership and low motivation. That will leave the Kurds to fight mostly alone. That's assuming that Iraq even has troops to spare. I posted awhile ago that the Iraq army only has 48,000 troops total, not counting police and special forces. I don't see them mustering up the troops to fight this battle. Sure the Kurds have a large army, but they can't do this alone. 

Still, there is a chance that this attack could succeed. ISIS has been defeated in both Iraq and Syria lately. The battle for Kobane sticks out as a huge defeat for ISIS and the Kurds have taken back many villages in Iraq. Plus they will have U.S. and other coalition airstrikes as help as well. And it is very possible that the Shia militias, that are largely responsible for Iraq's defense will participate as well. These militias are much better fighters then the Iraqi government troops, but there is a problem with these troops. Namely, these Shia fighters have a history of committing atrocities against Sunni populations. Mosul is almost all Sunni. Expect a bloodbath if these Shia militias take the city...