Friday, June 12, 2015

ISIS has accomplished what the United States has failed at: Crippling al-Qaeda. The Guardian.

ISIS fighters in Raqqa drive a tank at a parade. The Guardian/Reuters

ISIS has overtaken al-Qaeda as the premier Jihadi terrorist organization. The Guardian. ISIS used to be the Iraqi and Syrian branch of al-Qaeda but split from the organization after disagreements over tactics and ideology. Now ISIS has taken over as the leading terror group and has devastated al-Qaeda. Not only have they drawn recruits and funding away from al-Qaeda they are winning the ideological disagreement as well. Al-Qaeda is also lacking a charismatic leader since the death of Osama Bin Laden. The situation for al-Qaeda is so bad that they were forced to sell laptops and vehicles just to be able to afford food. Al-Qaeda leaders have considered changing tactics. Instead of recruiting the massive numbers of people that ISIS is they should recruit small numbers of "quality" people and start giving social services to their people. 

My Comment:
An excellent report from The Guardian. Read it all. When they feel like it, they can really put out some real journalism. Just stay away from their opinion pages. Stay FAR away... I was impressed that they were able to secure interviews with high ranking al-Qaeda figures and even more surprised at how willing they were to talk. You would think they would avoid telling the world about internal problems like these, but I'm glad that they did. 

It's clear that al-Qaeda isn't anywhere near as strong as they used to be. Sure al-Nusra is powerful in Syria, but even there they are second fiddle to ISIS. Only AQAP in Yemen seems to be a major threat. They were the ones that pulled off the Charlie Hebdo attack after all. But core al-Qaeda is a joke now. They haven't accomplished anything in a long time. And if the reports of them having to sell stuff just to feed themselves are true, then they are all but finished as a terror group. 

ISIS, on the other hand, has been extremely successful in the past year or so. In addition to the massive success they have had in Iraq and Syria, they have taken territory in Libya as well. They have cells active in Afghanistan, and Yemen and are in danger of taking territory there as well. And they have gathered several allies. The most important one is Boko Haram in Nigeria but they have also recruited groups in Egypt and Tunisa as well. Finally, they have inspired "lone wolf" terror attacks across the globe. 

With all that being said it makes sense that ISIS is winning the funding and recruitment battle. People like to back a winner and by any standard, ISIS is a winner. They have done things that al-Qaeda could only dream off. They have taken and held a massive amount of territory. They have a great propaganda machine on the internet. And they have withstood the assault from almost everyone in the Middle East, including the United States and even al-Qaeda itself. If I would use one word to describe ISIS, other then the obvious ones about how they are evil, it would probably be "winners".

I'm not in anyway sympathetic to al-Qaeda. The troubles they are having right now are great, and I wish they had happened much sooner then they did. But it is disturbing to me that we were not the ones that put them in this situation. After all our efforts since 9/11 it wasn't us that pushed al-Qaeda to the brink of irreverence. It was ISIS, who is now a bigger threat then al-Qaeda ever was...

Can they recover though? I think their new plan has merit, from a purely detached point of view. I want them to fail of course, but picking up recruits that are of higher quality is a sound idea. Though quantity has a quality of its own, in general, small numbers of very smart/effective people are better then large numbers of idiots. Of course how smart can you be to not only be a Jihadist but a Jihadist that fights for an organization that is on the down-slide? 

Their other plan, offering aid to civilians, will probably be much more effective. If al-Qaeda is willing to help those in need, those people will most likely be able to help them. It worked for Hezbollah, but then again, al-Qaeda doesn't have the help they did. And it's not like a little humanitarian aid is going to change their reputation worldwide... 

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