Saturday, June 9, 2018

US Soldier killed, four wounded in Somalia.

Al-Shabab fighters. USA Today/AP.

An US soldier was killed and four more were wounded in a firefight with al-Shabab in Somalia. USA Today. The injured soldiers have been treated and released and one of the local partner force was wounded as well. The skirmish was an attack by the al-Qaeda linked al-Shabab militia 200 miles southwest of the capital of Mogadishu. Al-Shabab is considered one of the most dangerous terror groups in Africa and was responsible for an attack last year that killed more than 500 people. 

My Comment:
It seems as though our involvement in countertenor operations in Africa are completely ignored until something like this happens. I am guessing a lot of people didn't even know we have troops in Somalia until this happened. I had heard about it a long time ago and am familiar with al-Shabab, but for the general populace? I don't think they know. 

In truth though, our involvement in Somalia has increased dramatically. We have been targeting al-Shabab for quite some time. They are an extremely dangerous terror group and if they are not dealt with they could take over the country and extend their terror operations outside of Africa. They already have committed some serious terror attacks in Kenya. 

It seems as though al-Shabab is still very active. This attack seemed like a rather conventional one with mortars and rifle fire attacking the US troops and local allies. The troops were likely in an advisory and air support role but managed to get attacked themselves. 

This is a propaganda coup for al-Shabab as terror groups rarely managed to kill or injure US troops. They will be using this as a recruiting tool unfortunately. They will be able to say to potential fighters they have actually managed to bring the fight to the US troops in Somalia. 

I have heard that President Trump has changed the rules of engagement in Africa to make incidents like this more rare. He's not going to be happy that this incident happened as he does not want to risk troops, especially our highly trained special forces, in an African battlefield. My guess is that there will be a response to this from our government with a possible reduction in support. 

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Another sonic attack on US diplomats? This time in China.

The US Consulate in Guangzhou, China. Reuters. 

At least two people have been sent home from Guangzhou, China after suffering a mysterious illness possibly related to a sonic attack. Reuters. Only one of those people have been confirmed to be injured but a second one was sent home. The incident is similar to the attack last year in Cuba that injured 24 US government employees and family members. It is unclear who is responsible for that attack and the new one in China. In all the cases the victims have symptoms of brain damage that may have been caused by some kind of sonic weapon. 

My Comment:
Very strange that this is happening again. It is very clear that someone has a sonic weapon and is using that weapon against US diplomats. I can't think of any other explanation for this attack. If it had only been in Cuba it could be a natural or non-hostile explanation. But two attacks in two cities halfway across the world? That's enemy action. 

So the question is who is the responsible party? Before I would have said for sure it was Cuba. They had the motive and opportunity, though I don't know if they have the means. But I doubt they would travel halfway across the world to attack another US Consulate. They hate America but I don't think they have access to a sonic weapon. It also doesn't make sense to attack targets in China when they have targets that are much closer to them geographically. 

China is another suspect as well. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they had sonic weapons. They are an advanced country with a powerful weapons research industry and they could certainly have the technology to do this. But why would they want to attack US diplomats? Doing so is almost an act of war and is not in the best interests of China. They are committed to diplomacy with the United States and though there are some obvious tensions, President Xi has a decent personal relationship with President Trump. 

It is also possible that this is some kind of terrorist attack by a non-government actor. Though that is possible as well, there are several obvious arguments against it. The most obvious one being is that terror attacks need to be claimed in order to be effective. It doesn't make sense to attack a bunch of US diplomats in the name of a cause if you never publicize what your cause is!

I also think that a high tech sonic weapon is outside the capabilities of a terror group. The technology is relatively new and I don't think there are that many terror groups that are that high tech. I would be shocked if it wasn't a state actor. 

But who? It doesn't seem very likely that it will be the Cubans or Chinese. Could it be the Russians? They occasionally do stupid things, but I doubt they would attack diplomats. That would be quite a line to cross. It could also be a middle eastern country like Syria or Iran. I could easily see the Iranians doing this but there isn't any proof either way. And though the North Koreans could do this as well, I seriously doubt they would be trying it now as relations are improving. 

No matter who is responsible, these attacks are very disturbing. They are extremely targeted and there seems little way to defend against them. The security for US Embassies and Consulates must take action to defend against these kinds of attacks and find the people responsible and bring them to justice.  

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Peace proposal in Yemen. If adopted it will mean cease fire, Saudis stopping bombing and rebels giving up ballistic missiles.

Houthi Rebels watch as a ballistic missile is launched. Reuters. 

A new UN peace proposal for Yemen would result in a cease fire, a cessation of bombing by the Saudis and the Houthi rebels giving up their ballistic missiles. Reuters. The plan has yet to be adopted and may be modified, but would also result in a transitional government. The conflict is a humanitarian disaster and is widely seen as a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The UAE, a major partner in the Saudi led coalition, has said the support the peace effort. 

My Comment:
I don't have a whole lot of hope for this peace deal to work. Since this war is a proxy conflict between the Iranians and the Saudis, and neither side has any reason to stop the war, I don't see it stopping anytime soon. Peace deals tend to only happen when one side is very weak and right now that isn't the case. Especially with so many foreign powers sending in troops and weapons. 

The Saudis consider the Houthi rebels to be a existential threat. They cannot be allowed to threaten the Saudi homeland and even if they give up their heavy weapons they are a major threat. The Saudis want to make sure that the Houthis are not a threat and a peace deal doesn't ensure that. 

The Iranians don't want the war to end either. The Yemen conflict greatly weakens their Saudi enemy and they are using their conflict to test their various weapons systems. The ballistic missile being fired at Saudi Arabia are largely coming from Iran and some of them have never been tested in combat before. 

The deal on it's face seems fairly fair. Giving up their weapons in exchange for not being bombed anymore is probably about as good of a deal the Houthis are going to get. Plus a new government would be formed and a cease fire would be put into place. Doing so would do a lot to stop the crisis in Yemen. 

But I just don't see it happening. Neither side really seems to want to quit. I did find it interesting that the Saudi's main ally, the UAE, seems to want out. They have sent quite a few troops and weapons into the conflict and they probably want out. They are threatened by the Houthi rebels as well, but I think they are more worried about the ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters left in the country at this point. 

Speaking of al-Qaeda and ISIS, they would be the real losers in any peace deal. Right now they are using the chaos to gain a foothold. Though both groups have been pounded hard lately, they are still a threat. With the other factions not fighting each other anymore, they can all gang up on the terror groups. 

But like I said, I don't see this war ending that quickly. Nobody really wants peace and the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia will continue, with the people of Yemen caught in between. 

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Someone Swatted David Hogg...

David Hogg and his house. Fox News/WSVN/AP.

Gun control advocate David Hogg had his house swarmed by police today in a situation that turned out to be a hoax. Fox News. Someone called 911 and said that a man with an AR-15 broke into his house and was holding Hogg and his family hostage. Hogg and his family were not home and safe and it is believed that the entire situation was an example of Swatting, where trolls call 911 on people. Swatting attempts are dangerous for everyone involved and people have died in cases in the past. 

My Comment:
I'm on the record as hating David Hogg. I don't think he is any use for anything other than a gun salesman. I hate his politics and find his arguments for gun control to be stupid at best. But even I think that sending a SWAT team to his house is over the line. 

If Hogg or his family had been home there is a chance that they could have died. The cops thought there was someone who was armed there and would have to respond. Though cops are trained to not shoot people in these kinds of situations, there is always a chance of something going wrong. That would have been genuinely horrible and even though I disagree with Hogg on almost everything, I don't want him to be killed by the police. 

Had Hogg been injured or killed, or one of his family members for that matter, he would have been a martyr for gun control. Obviously having people die for no reason is bad enough, but I don't want Hogg to have any sympathy for his cause. Even though nobody was hurt he is already playing the victim, and for once he's got a point. People that would otherwise not have sympathy for him may feel sorry for him and even agree with him. Making someone into a martyr is obviously not an action in support of gun rights. It turns moderates against the cause and makes it harder to criticize his actual arguments, which are poor at best. 

Of course we don't know who is responsible for this and it's very possible it wasn't someone who has any association with gun rights whatsoever. David Hogg famously tried to start a meme war with the internet and doing so painted a target on him. Since internet trolls invented Swating I wouldn't be surprised if that is what happened here. 

Indeed, trolls are all about stirring things up. They know that gun rights and gun control is a hot button issue and that they can anger everyone by doing something like this. Gun control advocates will rightly say that they were attacked and gun rights advocates don't want to be blamed for this. Trolls would know that the shrillest voices on both sides will be losing their minds over this and they also expect a reaction from David Hogg himself. 

Hogg's a bit of "lolcow", to use some internet speak. He's the kind of person a troll likes to pick on because he is both super serious about everything and thinks he's more important than he actually is. Add that in with his left wing politics and the fact that he's basically famous for nothing and you have a prime troll target. Especially since he called out the internet directly. 

Of course there is also another possibility. This could have been a gun control supporter as well. Hogg even could have called in the threat himself, though I can't imagine he'd be that stupid. But someone who supports gun control might want to drum up sympathy for the cause. I don't find that likely but it is possible. 

Finally, I would be pretty biased if I didn't admit that it is possible that a gun rights supporter did this. If they did they are extremely stupid and don't deserve to be associated with gun rights or even gun ownership. Pulling a "prank" that has a decent chance of getting someone killed is never ok, but doing it in the name of a cause who you are going to hurt? Absolutely despicable. If this was a gun rights supporter I want him found and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. 

I sincerely hope this is the last time I ever have to write about David Hogg or the Parkland gun control kids. The sad thing is that Hogg's 15 minutes of fame is almost up. We have moved on to other things nationally and after he graduated we probably would have never heard from him again... 

Monday, June 4, 2018

Horrifying video from Guatemala shows people fleeing from the eruption.



The above video shows people fleeing from the Fuego volcano in Guatemala. The eruption of that volcano has killed 60 people. RT has a little background on the video, but there isn't a whole lot of information other than what you see.

I do know that these people were pretty lucky to survive this as that looked like a pyroclastic flow. Those kinds of eruptions are famous for killing people with hot ash and deadly gas so it is amazing that these people survived, at least long enough to get the video out.

Anyways, I just wanted to share the video. It popped up in my twitter feed and I thought I could share it. RT may be Russian propaganda but they occasionally post some interesting or compelling stuff.