President Putin has agreed to resume three way talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States to attempt to end the war.

 

President Vladimir Putin (right) with US Envoy Steven Witkoff. Reuters. 

President Putin of Russia has agreed to three way talks including Ukraine and the United States. Reuters. Putin released Stephan Hubbard, an American citizen held in Russia, as a gesture of good will. The Kremlin said the talks could occur next month in Abu Dhabi, which has hosted previous talks this year. Those talks were not productive and did not end the war. Putin also offered help to try and end the war in Iran and offered up another meeting between himself, President Trump and President Xi Jianping of China. It is unclear if Putin or Zelensky are willing to compromise on their various war goals and actually end the war. 

My Comment:

The good news is that at least Putin and Zelensky appear willing to talk. That hasn't been the case for most of the year, after the previous rounds of talks fell apart. Their positions were too far apart and neither side was willing to give up anything to end the conflict. 

Has anything really changed since then? Not really. The battlefield largely remains a stalemate. Russia has made gains, but Ukraine has retaken some territory as well. Both sides have taken major damage but neither side appears to be near an actual collapse which would actually incentivize a deal. Ukraine is closer than Russia, they have lost most of their air defenses, have major energy concerns, and have a major recruitment problem. But both sides could continue the war for at least another year.

What could happen is an energy ceasefire. President Trump tried to ram through one earlier this month, which both sides immediately violated, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Russia would obviously benefit from their oil refineries being damaged and Ukraine would benefit from keeping whatever energy infrastructure they have left running. It would be a low cost way to make things better for each side. 

But for a greater peace deal? I just don't see it. Putin still hasn't achieved his goals for the Special Military Operation. At the very least, I would expect him to demand the remaining territory he has demanded that he has not yet captured. And I don't see him agreeing to any security agreement for Ukraine.

Zelensky, for his part, has backed down a bit from his demands. He has at least said that he would accept freezing the war where the lines are now, but hasn't gone beyond that. That's better than his previous demands where he not only wanted Russia to withdraw from the territory they conquered, but to give back Crimea as well! The big demand though is a security agreement that would have article 5 triggers, which Putin would never accept, and has not agreed to give up claims to the territory they lost. 

Regardless, ending the war is going to be a long process and the more both sides talk the better it is. I am not expecting an end to the war this year, but it's very possible that it could end next year. A negotiated settlement is the most likely outcome, though I haven't ruled out a collapse of Ukraine's military. It will be a cold winter after all, and much of Ukraine's energy systems have been destroyed.