President Trump has denied that US munitions stockpiles are depleted and vowed to punish leakers.

 

US President Donald Trump. BBC/Getty.

President Trump has denied reports that US munitions stockpiles are depleted and has vowed to punish leakers. BBC. Reports earlier in the week said that the US was running low on certain important weapons, including long range attack missiles and anti-air defense missiles. President Trump denied reports that he confronted Secretary of War Pete Hegseth for the supposed shortfalls. Trump also said that the leakers were "treasonous" since information on American weapons stockpiles are classified. 

My Comment:

This story is a mess on multiple levels and it's very hard to determine what the actual truth of this story is. I do know that all of the reports are from anonymous sources and none of them provided any documents that prove their claims. It's also very clear that Trump still has many enemies in the defense department and they absolutely could and would make things up to hurt Trump and his Administration. 

On the other hand, it's also very clear that a lot of weapons have been expended in the Iran conflict, most notably the anti-air defenses, like Patriot missiles and THAAD. They are our premier anti-air defenses and the Patriots were already low, due in part to the previous Iran conflict, our support of Ukraine and sales to allies. I would also believe that we have used a lot of our long range missiles, the ATACMS and the new PrSM weapons, which we never had many of in the first place. 

But even if the reports are true, Trump is also right in that we are in no way low on weapons. We still have plenty of Tomahawk missiles and our air and naval assets are, if not unlimited, enough to conduct a war for a very long time. Plus, stockpiles are expected to draw down during a conflict, especially one where we have launched as many major attacks as we have in this one. 

What is clear is that President Trump is angry about these stories. And he is absolutely right to be. It's clear that Iran was happy to hear this and though they probably have a more accurate ability to judge US firepower, having this story out there may give them some false hope that they can outlast the United States. And it's going to complicate any possible peace deal. Indeed, news broke today that Iran is making unreasonable demands for peace again, and these stories might be why. 

Keep in mind that information warfare is real too. By any rational standard, Iran has been utterly destroyed in this conflict and has no real hope of winning the war. But there is a lot of noise out there about how Iran is going to outlast the United States, and this release is absolutely going to fuel that. 

So will the leakers be charged with treason? Almost certainly not. Finding them will probably be difficult in the first place, assuming the media isn't making the sources up. But even if they are, treason charges are very unlikely. Constitutionally, treason is extremely hard to prove and this conduct doesn't reach that standard, plus there is unlikely to be two witnesses willing and able to testify. They absolutely could be charged with espionage, but treason? Not unless we change the constitution. 

What is my take on US stockpiles? I think we have drawn them down quite a bit, but not so much that we can't conduct war. I would believe that we are out or basically out of PsRM's since they are new weapon that hasn't been produced for very long, but I think we should have enough of the other weapons cited for a longer conflict. 

Still, I do think that even if it isn't a problem now, it could be if the war lasts much longer. If, God forbid, we are still talking about the conflict with Iran by the end of Fall, or even worse, next year, then yeah, we will probably run out of these weapons, maybe sooner if the conflict escalates. It's a good non-political reason to try and end the conflict, but the problem is that the Iranians are insane. 

Regardless, the real losers here are Ukraine. Even if we do run out of some weapons, America will be fine and will be able to continue the war. But Ukraine? They are basically out of Patriot missiles, and that is a huge problem for them because Patriots are the only weapon that even has a chance at shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. Regardless of the actual numbers, we absolutely have used a lot of our patriots and the cupboards are bare for Ukraine, and that's probably true to a lesser degree for our ATACMS. 

Of course, our support of Ukraine is a major reason that our stockpiles have been depleted. The weapons we gave to Ukraine did deplete our stocks and though those gifts aren't going to be equal to what we have used in the conflict, it's unquestionable that if we had a more sane Ukraine policy over the past decade, we would be in better shape than we are now. Indeed, I warned about this very possibility when we started giving Ukraine these weapons. 

As for the Iran War, I do think it will end sooner, rather than later. No matter how much the media and the Democrats want Iran to win the conflict, they absolutely cannot do so. This report may have delayed a deal by a few weeks, but I do think that it will end. And, of course, Trump can always throw up his hands and unilaterally end the war himself.