President Donald Trump seems to be reaching out to North Korea for a diplomatic win.

President Trump shakes Kim Jong Un's hand on a TV in South Korea. Reuters. 

President Donald Trump seems to be reaching out to North Korea in search of a diplomatic win. Reuters. Trump made a major diplomatic push during his first term to try and warm relations with North Korea, which remains a pariah state. However, Trump appears to be renewing focus on North Korea now. He has scaled back US participation in a major military drill with South Korea, due in part to their refusal to help with the Iran conflict. Trump and Kim Jong Un do have a respectful relationship and both men claim to understand each other. North Korea is in a better negotiating position, due to an economic boom from participating in the Russia-Ukraine war. 

My Comment:

I speculated yesterday that Trump's canceling of the exercise with South Korea had less to due with South Korea and more to do with North Korea. Given Trumps statements about Kim Jong Un, I think that is the case. South Korea did anger the United States by not helping in Iran, given that they too have an interest in keeping the oil from the Middle East flowing, but it's really not about them, that much. 

The cynics are saying that this is just a ploy to get some positive media coverage for Trump ahead of the midterms. There is probably some truth to this, a diplomatic win would probably be helpful for Republican chances in November. But I also don't think that's the only factor. Trump wanted a deal during his first term, and if 2020 had gone different, he probably would have gotten one. He also seems to genuinely like Kim Jong Un, and he has a good relationship with him. 

Kim Jong Un has good motivation to at least talk to Trump. Doing so would be a win for him too, largely because it would give him quite a bit of prestige and legitimacy. It would also bring some predictability to the relationship between the United States and North Korea, which is a major concern. 

The problem is that North Korea really is in a good position right now. Their participation in the Ukraine war has been an absolute economic boom for them, funneling billions of dollars into their economy. They have sold billions of dollars worth artillery shells and missiles and are getting paid for every soldier they deploy in Russia to help defend the country from Ukrainian attacks. 

This means that Trump and Kim Jong Un will probably meet each other as equals and any diplomatic deal will have to be limited in nature. Getting rid of North Korea's nuclear weapons are not a realistic goal for Trump if they do meet. However, a test ban, an official de jure end to the Korean war and/or a ban on missile tests in exchange for sanctions relief could be a real possibility. 

I do think that this is a positive thing. Korea has been a tinderbox for far too long and ratcheting down the temperature again would be useful. Indeed, it was something that should have been done during the Biden administration, but Korea was just yet another issue that Joe Biden was out to lunch on. I don't think a major deal is likely, but any kind of talk is a positive.