Analyzing the new defense pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

 

The leadership of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. AP. 

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have joined a new defensive pact. AP. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement would treat an attack on any member as an attack on all members. The members say that the pact isn't directed at any specific country, but many feel it could be directed at Iran. The alliance is powerful, Turkey has huge conventional military, Saudi Arabia has a lot of soft power in the region and is rich, while Pakistan has nuclear weapons and an experienced military. However, the agreement is not as strong as a formal alliance like NATO. 

My Comment:

This news broke a few days ago, but the news cycle is slow today and there isn't much else to talk about besides primary election results. And it is a huge story, this is a large alliance and could have serious implications down the line. 

This is a very powerful alliance, and I think only one country could realistically challenge it, and that's the United States. All three of these countries have huge amounts of troops, large professional militaries and some limited power projection. And, of course, they have nuclear weapons. 

The alliance faces major logistical issues though. None of these countries share a border and Turkey and Pakistan aren't even in the same region. They could support each other in a war against Iran, obviously, since all of them are in striking range of Iran, but what if they get into a conflict with another country? I think they would have extreme difficulty in accomplishing much. 

And honestly, I think that Iran is the least likely country to trigger this alliance right now. Iran has largely been degraded in terms of military power and could not afford to launch a war against Saudi Arabia or Pakistan any time soon. I guess they could continue to launch attacks against US bases in Saudi Arabia and that could trigger the pact, but I honestly don't see the Saudis calling people into the war given they haven't really joined it in the first place. 

The real threats to a larger regional war are India and, to a much lesser degree, Israel. Pakistan and India have had several conflicts in the last decade and all of the conditions that led to that conflict (terrorism, border disputes, religious differences) still exists. Should a conflict break out, it's very possible that Pakistan could call their allies into the conflict, leading to a larger regional war. 

However, this scenario would be the most difficult for the Saudis and the Turks to help out. They don't really have a land route to send troops, so they would have to go by see. Even assuming they had the shipping capability, they would have to somehow evade Indian attacks on their supply convoys. And given that Turkey and Saudi Arabia have closer ties to India than Pakistan, obviously, it's possible the alliance could fall apart.

And Israel? A war between Turkey and Israel isn't as unlikely as you think. There has been tensions over Turkey's actions in Syria and there is evidence that Israel no longer considers Iran to be their number one rival. But a conflict between Turkey and Israel, perhaps in Syria, would be difficult for the other members to help out with. The Pakistanis are too far away, and while the Saudis could help, they have closer ties to Israel. 

Regardless, I don't think too much will come from this pact, barring a major war between India and Pakistan. It's mostly symbolic in nature and is probably more about keeping Iran from dragging them into the war than anything else.