Ceasefire deal and hostage release between Hamas and Israel very close to happening...

 

A man inspects damage in Gaza. NBC News/AFP.

A ceasefire deal and hostage release between Hamas and Israel is very close to happening. NBC News. After 15 months of fighting, both sides appear close to a deal. Under the proposal, Hamas would release a large number of hostages 48 hours after a ceasefire is called. Israel would pull out of Gaza under the terms of the deal. The withdrawal and hostage release would occur during three phases. There is pressure to get a deal passed before Donald Trump is inaugurated on the 20th as he has vowed that "all hell would break loose" if a deal wasn't made before he came into office. 

My Comment:

Positive news on the Israel-Hamas war front. It looks like the war will finally end and possibly very soon. The deal hasn't been made yet but it does seem like both sides would get much of what they want from the deal. Israel would get their hostages back and Hamas would see the end to the war. 

There is a lot of pressure from both Biden and Trump that is kind of forcing a deal here as well. Biden wants to salvage anything from his presidency and ending the war in Gaza would be a rare win for him, even though he wouldn't be able to take full credit. 

Why? Because Trump would get a lot of credit as well. He has put a lot of pressure on both Israel and Hamas to get a deal done because he is absolutely going to have bigger fish to fry in terms of foreign policy. Ending the Ukraine war alone will be a nightmare and getting the Israel-Hamas war off of the board would be a major win, especially if it happens before he is even President. 

There is, of course, a chance that the deal would fall apart. Both sides hate each other and have a lot of reasons to try and continue the war. Hamas gets funds and support from the war and Israel wants to finally end the threat of Hamas. But I think it will probably happen, both sides have a lot of battle fatigue and Israel has the new threat of Turkey to worry about, which I wrote about here.

If a deal does happen, not everyone will be happy about it. I have already seen some hardliner Israel supporters who are upset with the prospect of a deal. I am less tuned in to the pro-Hamas side for obvious reasons, but I think there could be a few hardliners there too that would be upset at the prospect of a deal. 

And there is also a possibility that the peace isn't going to last. Who knows if the Houthis will continue the war? And the specter of Turkey looms over the region, given the collapsing relations between Israel and Turkey. It's very possible that Hamas will use any peace deal as an opportunity to rearm and ready themselves for another October 7th style attack... 

Still, that's all in the future, in the short term it's hard to see any deal as a negative. Like I said, everyone has something to gain from it at this point, and not just Hamas and Israel. Ending the war would be a huge win for everyone involved and I sincerely hope it happens.