Sunday, January 5, 2025

Heavy fighting reported in the Kursk incursion with both Russia and Ukraine launching attacks.

 

A Russian vehicle destroyed in the Kursk region. Forbes/Ukrainian military photo. 

Heavy fighting has broken out in the Kursk incursion with both Russia and Ukraine launching major attacks. Forbes. Russia launched attacks on the northwest portion of the incursion, near the villages of Malaya Loknya, Leonidovo and Sverdlikovo. The attack involved 40 armored vehicles and may have been the largest attack in the region since Ukraine launched the attack on the region. Ukraine launched their own attack near the village of Berdin in the northeast portion of the incursion, advancing about two miles. Both sides incurred heavy losses though it is unclear if either side accomplished much. Russia may have had a more difficult time of it as their attack was expected and was in an area that has seen heavy combat while the Ukrainians attacked in a quieter sector. 

My Comment:

I still struggle to think of why the Ukrainians are still trying to make the Kursk incursion happen. I know the primary goal was the Kursk nuclear power plant, so they could hold it hostage as a nuclear threat, but that isn't going to happen. Russian forces in the area are still too strong and the resources being used there should be used elsewhere. 

As for the Russians, I am not sure this was the wisest attack either. Ukraine knew that this attack was coming and was able to blunt it. I know the goal for the Russians is to kick Ukraine out of their territory but I think it might be wiser to attack them on other fronts in the region. The Kursk incursion is a rather large salient and they could attack into Ukraine to fully cut it off, but instead they are trying to reduce the salient instead. 

Ukraine's attack appears to have been somewhat successful but gaining two miles is not really that important in the grand scheme of things. The area was not well defended and wasn't expecting an attack, but they still took some losses in trying to take this area. And we don't even know if they will be able to keep what they have taken, the article said that the troops there were dismounted infantry and they will be extremely vulnerable to artillery and drone strikes if they aren't able to dig in. 

It also marks a return by both sides to something that doesn't seem to work very well anymore, massed armor attacks. Both sides bunched up their vehicles and both sides took heavy losses in their vehicles because they did so. Both sides have very good intelligence about what the other side is doing and when you mass vehicles like this it gets found out quickly. Russia had seen success with smaller attacks with isolated armor working with motorcycle calvary in other parts of Ukraine so I am not sure why they went back to massed armor here in Kursk. 

Either way, the Kursk front has always been a distraction. Ukraine wants to hold onto it as a bargaining chip for any negotiations but that assumes that Russia is willing to negotiate in the first place, which seems unlikely. The cost is that they have weakened their other fronts, most notably near Pokrovsk, which I wrote about last week. That logistic hub is in danger of falling and if it does, Russia will be able to use it as a springboard for further attacks, and a large section of eastern Ukraine will be cut off from supply lines. 

That front is where Ukraine should be concentrating forces and launching surprise attacks. Russia is not going to be distracted by an attack in Kursk when they are so close to a major war objective in Pokrovsk. So all the attack in Kursk is going to accomplish is good headlines. 

And headlines is all Ukraine has at this point. Launching this attack may not have made much military sense but it's a "victory" in a campaign that has seen little lately. I still think that Ukraine's main goal right now is to try and convince incoming President Donald Trump to not pull the plug on their war. Will a minor attack in the Kursk incursion change Trump's mind? Probably not, but what else can Ukraine do? 

I hope that the war does end soon. Ukraine is rapidly running out of weapons and equipment but they haven't completely exhausted them and are still capable of some small offensive operations. And if they do end up drafting their younger men, they could have the manpower to delay their defeat through much of the year. But I would hope that they see the writing is on the wall and would end the war before more people on both sides have to die. 

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