High tensions between Turkey and Israel have gotten worse after the fall of the Syrian regime. Could a war be possible?

 

President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Jerusalem Post/Reuters.

High tensions between Turkey and Israel have gotten worse after the fall of the Syrian regime, to the point where a war is possible. The Jerusalem Post. Relations between the two nations have been ice cold since the October 7th attack launched the war against Hamas. Turkey is aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, which also supports Hamas. Turkey is also upset with Israel over contacts they have with US backed Kurdish militias in Northern Syria, which Turkey considers a terrorist threat. Israel feels they need to work with the Kurds to counter Iranian moves in Syria, even if it angers Turkey. 

My Comment:

There are some major arguments against a war between Israel and Turkey, the most obvious being that any such conflict would obviously endanger any relationship Turkey has with NATO. I can't see Donald Trump, or any American President, signing off on a war with Israel, it just couldn't happen without NATO taking action against Turkey. 

Israel too is not likely to want to start a conflict with Turkey. They are, after all, bogged down in a two front war. They have, temporarily, knocked Hezbollah out of the war, but they are still facing both Hamas and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The last thing they need is a major conflict with Turkey, even if it is just limited to the forces both countries have in Syria. 

But relations are terrible between the two countries right now. It's hard to underestimate how much Turkey and Erdogan absolutely despise the Kurds. Some of that hatred is explained by the fact that the PKK is a communist terrorist groups responsible for several atrocities. The fact is though, that the PKK isn't the only group of Kurds and Turkey does not seem to recognize that fact. They treat all Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq as if they were members of the PKK. To be fair, they do have some links, but it's not like there isn't a difference between the groups, the YPG, the main Kurdish militia in Syria, are not terrorists. 

Israel does not have formal relations with the YPG but they do support them largely because they can be used as a force to diminish Iranian influence in the region. It's very much an "enemy of my enemy" situation, but Israel apparently thinks having relations with them is more important than not angering the Turks. 

The Hamas war is obviously a huge problem as well, Turkey and Hamas are not direct allies but Turkey absolutely has sympathy for their beliefs and actions. Given that those actions include the atrocities on October 7th, it's understandable why Israel is upset with Turkey and their leadership. 

Still, a war is still unlikely. Mostly because the areas where Turkey is active and the areas where Israel are active are on opposite sides of the country. Turkey is obviously more concerned with their border areas with Syria in the north part of the country, while Israel is more concerned with their border in the south. How the Israeli and Turkish forces in Syria would even interact when they are not even in the same region is beyond me. 

But you never know what could happen. A war isn't outside the realm of possibility. Such a conflict would be horrifying as both Turkey and Israel are both modern countries with advanced weapons. I would think that Turkey would have the advantage as they have a huge army with modern weapons but Israel has a long history of punching above their weight class. 

The real fear is that Turkey would win the war and then Israel would respond with the Sampson option, launching their supply of nuclear weapons to take out cities in Turkey. Such a conflict would be horrific and would cost millions of lives. That's the worst case scenario of course, but it should be in the back of the mind of both Israel and Turkey before they consider any conflict...