The energy war in Ukraine continues after a major Russian strike.

 

Ukrainian President Zelensky. AP.

Russia launched a major attack on Ukraine's energy system, knocking it out in some areas. AP. The attack came as a response to a new long range attack on Russian energy and logistics. Russia responded with a massive drone and missile attack on targets throughout Ukraine, ranging from Lviv in the West and Kharkov in the East. The missile and drone strikes were able to knock out power in many regions during harsh winter conditions. It continues a strategy of Russia to destroy Ukraine's ability to generate power, with most domestic production outside of nuclear power plants destroyed. In September Ukraine reported 60% of their power production destroyed and things have gotten worse since then. 

My Comment:

I have criticism for both sides on this story. First the Ukrainians. Launching long range missile strikes into Russia proper is just beyond stupid. Those weapons should absolutely be used near the front to support either their operations in the Kursk salient or, more critically, the Donbas front where they are on the verge of collapse. Doing so also drew more Russian attacks on their infrastructure, which dramatically damages their chances of the war as it could turn civilians against the government. 

For the Russians, why do they continue to do half measures? It makes no sense to make limited strikes on power generation. Russia has the capability to knock out most, if not all, power generation in Ukraine. You don't want to attack the nuclear power plants for pretty obvious reasons (though that hasn't stopped Ukraine from attempting it), but you can cut off the substations that transport that power. And there is absolutely no reason why they couldn't completely cut off power coming in from other countries. 

But so far they have mostly held back. This strike was effective but it wasn't so effective that it knocked power out for good. What are the Russians thinking? I am guessing it is genuine humanitarian concern. Russia has largely avoided hitting civilian targets, on purpose at least, and they do not seem to want to cause mass civilian casualties. 

I disagree with this, obviously. Russia's primary concern is to end the war and though knocking out the power grid in the middle of winter would probably cause some civilian casualties, it would win the war dramatically faster. That would mean that a lot more people would get to live on both sides. 

I also think that it's extremely unlikely that the war will end any other way than a Russian victory and the destruction of the Ukrainian state. Though I think Putin and Trump could cut a deal, why would Putin? He might be able to trust Trump to uphold any deal, but there is no way he could trust the next President, regardless of which party he belongs to. The West already betrayed Russia once during this war so diplomacy is not really an option. So anything that speeds up the eventual Russian victory