Massive Palisades and Eaton wildfire devastate portions of Los Angeles.

 

Firefighters battling the Palisades fire. AP. 

The massive Palisades and Eaton wildfires have devastated portions of Los Angeles. AP. Five people have died and more than 1000 structures have been destroyed in the wildfires. The fires were fueled by hurricane force Santa Anna winds and dry conditions, in a rare January firestorm. Firefighters were hampered by the conditions and lack of power and water, but it was unlikely they would have been able to stop the storms. The Palisades fire alone is now the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles, and it was joined by the Eaton fire and now another fire in the Hollywood Hills. The Pacific Palisades neighborhood was devastated. 

Fox News has live updates for the disaster. 

My Comment:

The videos and pictures from this disaster are insane. Los Angeles really did turn into a hellscape yesterday and today and it's hard to even believe or comprehend the level of devastation. The fact that only five people have died so far is quite amazing given the amount of destruction and how fast these firestorms moved. 

And it's not like Los Angeles is out of the woods yet. The storms are continuing and are not contained and now the Hollywood Hills are burning as well. Thankfully the extreme wind that fueled these storms are no longer present for the moment. And it looks like Los Angeles proper will be safe from these fires, if not from all the smoke the fires produced. 

Some of the victims of the storm are celebrities, including Mark Hamill, Mandy Moore and James Woods. Woods has been a good source of information, surprisingly enough. He lost his house and he also said that the insurance companies canceled the policies of the folks in his neighborhood, probably because this disaster was pretty predictable. 

I think that California has a lot of blame for this disaster, especially at the leadership level. This is not going to go well for California governor Gavin Newsom or LA Mayor Karen Bass. Bass is getting slammed for not even being in the country during the disaster, she was in Ghana, of all places, when this storm started and she hasn't been covering herself in glory since she has come back. 

In some ways these kinds of storms are not preventable. California has a long history of wildfires and given the Santa Anna winds and dry conditions, fires were pretty inevitable. There are things you can't really stop and these storms are probably one of them. 

But there were also a lot of things that could have been done a lot better than they were. California's fire management system is horrible and they have let far too much brush and debris pile up and that leads to massive fires. Gavin Newsom has also blocked efforts to refill the states reservoir's, which may be a reason why fire hydrants didn't work during the worst of the fire. Even worse, there are reports that the city's surplus fire equipment was sent to Ukraine, of all places, instead of being stockpiled for this eventuality. 

Given how bad these storms were I don't know how much these things affected the storm. But you would have to think things might not have gotten this bad had the leadership of California been at all competent. I'd also add that since California is a de facto one party state, so the Democrats own this disaster. I would hope that this would lead to some change in the state, but I just don't believe that is even possible at this point... 

High tensions between Turkey and Israel have gotten worse after the fall of the Syrian regime. Could a war be possible?

 

President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. Jerusalem Post/Reuters.

High tensions between Turkey and Israel have gotten worse after the fall of the Syrian regime, to the point where a war is possible. The Jerusalem Post. Relations between the two nations have been ice cold since the October 7th attack launched the war against Hamas. Turkey is aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, which also supports Hamas. Turkey is also upset with Israel over contacts they have with US backed Kurdish militias in Northern Syria, which Turkey considers a terrorist threat. Israel feels they need to work with the Kurds to counter Iranian moves in Syria, even if it angers Turkey. 

My Comment:

There are some major arguments against a war between Israel and Turkey, the most obvious being that any such conflict would obviously endanger any relationship Turkey has with NATO. I can't see Donald Trump, or any American President, signing off on a war with Israel, it just couldn't happen without NATO taking action against Turkey. 

Israel too is not likely to want to start a conflict with Turkey. They are, after all, bogged down in a two front war. They have, temporarily, knocked Hezbollah out of the war, but they are still facing both Hamas and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The last thing they need is a major conflict with Turkey, even if it is just limited to the forces both countries have in Syria. 

But relations are terrible between the two countries right now. It's hard to underestimate how much Turkey and Erdogan absolutely despise the Kurds. Some of that hatred is explained by the fact that the PKK is a communist terrorist groups responsible for several atrocities. The fact is though, that the PKK isn't the only group of Kurds and Turkey does not seem to recognize that fact. They treat all Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq as if they were members of the PKK. To be fair, they do have some links, but it's not like there isn't a difference between the groups, the YPG, the main Kurdish militia in Syria, are not terrorists. 

Israel does not have formal relations with the YPG but they do support them largely because they can be used as a force to diminish Iranian influence in the region. It's very much an "enemy of my enemy" situation, but Israel apparently thinks having relations with them is more important than not angering the Turks. 

The Hamas war is obviously a huge problem as well, Turkey and Hamas are not direct allies but Turkey absolutely has sympathy for their beliefs and actions. Given that those actions include the atrocities on October 7th, it's understandable why Israel is upset with Turkey and their leadership. 

Still, a war is still unlikely. Mostly because the areas where Turkey is active and the areas where Israel are active are on opposite sides of the country. Turkey is obviously more concerned with their border areas with Syria in the north part of the country, while Israel is more concerned with their border in the south. How the Israeli and Turkish forces in Syria would even interact when they are not even in the same region is beyond me. 

But you never know what could happen. A war isn't outside the realm of possibility. Such a conflict would be horrifying as both Turkey and Israel are both modern countries with advanced weapons. I would think that Turkey would have the advantage as they have a huge army with modern weapons but Israel has a long history of punching above their weight class. 

The real fear is that Turkey would win the war and then Israel would respond with the Sampson option, launching their supply of nuclear weapons to take out cities in Turkey. Such a conflict would be horrific and would cost millions of lives. That's the worst case scenario of course, but it should be in the back of the mind of both Israel and Turkey before they consider any conflict... 

Justin Trudeau resigns as Prime Minster of Canada...

 

Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau. Fox News/AFP/Getty.

Justin Trudeau, the Prime Minster of Canada, will resign as soon as his party chooses new leadership. Fox News. Trudeau cited internal opposition in his party as the reason he could no longer serve. Trudeau saw his approval ratings collapse due to high cost of living and inflation in Canada. Trudeau had lost support from his Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland, who wrote a scathing resignation letter criticizing Trudeau's economic policies and warned Canada of the threat levied by President Elect Donald Trump to issue tariffs. Trudeau's resignation gives his party, the Liberal Party, a chance to right the ship before the election in October. It is unclear who will take over as a caretaker Prime Minster. 

My Comment:

I am not sad to see Justin Trudeau, I have been extremely critical of him, to the point where I made a joke with my Dad that I wasn't sure if I would be allowed in the country when he suggested going fishing in Canada. And I am not even sure I was joking, I was extremely harsh to Trudeau during the Freedom Convoy protests, to the point where I supported the protests against his government. 

Trudeau had come under withering criticism recently, not for his asinine covid restrictions or his tyranny when it comes to guns, but due to the economy. Canada has not kept up with the United States in terms of growth ever since Trudeau took power. And that doesn't even include the absolute mess that is the housing crisis in Canada. 

Indeed, there are several reasons why housing is so expensive in a country that has a huge amount of space to build. Part of it is China buying up real estate in Canada, keeping prices high. This is such a priority for China they have interfered in Canadian elections to keep Trudeau in power. 

The elephant in the room is the massive wave of immigration that has fundamentally changed Canada. The majority of these immigrants appear to be low skilled workers from India and they have not behaved well at all. Indeed, the behavior of these immigrants has been so poor it has caused a global backlash against Indians and India itself. I am sure that if Canada hadn't done this the H1B visa issue here in the United States would not have blown up the way it has. Everyone has heard the horror stories of the behavior of Indians in Canada and the backlash has been severe. 

Trudeau also seemed to downplay the threat that Donald Trump posed to Canada. I do think he is serious when he says that he will impose tariffs on Canada if they don't give Trump the concessions he wants. And I also don't think that his "jokes" about Canada being annexed by the United States are actual jokes, he's not 100% serious but he is absolutely floating the idea of taking over, which is something Canada should be taking seriously. I never got the impression that Trump and Trudeau actually liked each other, the way Trump likes some other world leaders, like Macron of France and the former president of Mexico, AMLO. Trudeau is absolutely the wrong person to deal with Trump. 

Of course the problem now is that who on earth is going to replace Trudeau. Given the fact that the Liberal Party is likely to get wiped out in the next election, who is going to volunteer, except some self serving person that wants "Prime Minster" on their resume. I'm no expert on Canadian politics, so I won't float any names, but I can't imagine they are going to get someone good to serve until October and take the blame for Trudeau's failures when they lose the election. 

I have to say out of all the world leaders I hated Trudeau the most. I hate how smugly lefty he was and how arrogant he was about the United States. I hated how he used one incident to try and ban guns throughout his country. And I hate how much of a failure he is, truly, Mexico has been run better than Canada since Trudeau took power... 

Heavy fighting reported in the Kursk incursion with both Russia and Ukraine launching attacks.

 

A Russian vehicle destroyed in the Kursk region. Forbes/Ukrainian military photo. 

Heavy fighting has broken out in the Kursk incursion with both Russia and Ukraine launching major attacks. Forbes. Russia launched attacks on the northwest portion of the incursion, near the villages of Malaya Loknya, Leonidovo and Sverdlikovo. The attack involved 40 armored vehicles and may have been the largest attack in the region since Ukraine launched the attack on the region. Ukraine launched their own attack near the village of Berdin in the northeast portion of the incursion, advancing about two miles. Both sides incurred heavy losses though it is unclear if either side accomplished much. Russia may have had a more difficult time of it as their attack was expected and was in an area that has seen heavy combat while the Ukrainians attacked in a quieter sector. 

My Comment:

I still struggle to think of why the Ukrainians are still trying to make the Kursk incursion happen. I know the primary goal was the Kursk nuclear power plant, so they could hold it hostage as a nuclear threat, but that isn't going to happen. Russian forces in the area are still too strong and the resources being used there should be used elsewhere. 

As for the Russians, I am not sure this was the wisest attack either. Ukraine knew that this attack was coming and was able to blunt it. I know the goal for the Russians is to kick Ukraine out of their territory but I think it might be wiser to attack them on other fronts in the region. The Kursk incursion is a rather large salient and they could attack into Ukraine to fully cut it off, but instead they are trying to reduce the salient instead. 

Ukraine's attack appears to have been somewhat successful but gaining two miles is not really that important in the grand scheme of things. The area was not well defended and wasn't expecting an attack, but they still took some losses in trying to take this area. And we don't even know if they will be able to keep what they have taken, the article said that the troops there were dismounted infantry and they will be extremely vulnerable to artillery and drone strikes if they aren't able to dig in. 

It also marks a return by both sides to something that doesn't seem to work very well anymore, massed armor attacks. Both sides bunched up their vehicles and both sides took heavy losses in their vehicles because they did so. Both sides have very good intelligence about what the other side is doing and when you mass vehicles like this it gets found out quickly. Russia had seen success with smaller attacks with isolated armor working with motorcycle calvary in other parts of Ukraine so I am not sure why they went back to massed armor here in Kursk. 

Either way, the Kursk front has always been a distraction. Ukraine wants to hold onto it as a bargaining chip for any negotiations but that assumes that Russia is willing to negotiate in the first place, which seems unlikely. The cost is that they have weakened their other fronts, most notably near Pokrovsk, which I wrote about last week. That logistic hub is in danger of falling and if it does, Russia will be able to use it as a springboard for further attacks, and a large section of eastern Ukraine will be cut off from supply lines. 

That front is where Ukraine should be concentrating forces and launching surprise attacks. Russia is not going to be distracted by an attack in Kursk when they are so close to a major war objective in Pokrovsk. So all the attack in Kursk is going to accomplish is good headlines. 

And headlines is all Ukraine has at this point. Launching this attack may not have made much military sense but it's a "victory" in a campaign that has seen little lately. I still think that Ukraine's main goal right now is to try and convince incoming President Donald Trump to not pull the plug on their war. Will a minor attack in the Kursk incursion change Trump's mind? Probably not, but what else can Ukraine do? 

I hope that the war does end soon. Ukraine is rapidly running out of weapons and equipment but they haven't completely exhausted them and are still capable of some small offensive operations. And if they do end up drafting their younger men, they could have the manpower to delay their defeat through much of the year. But I would hope that they see the writing is on the wall and would end the war before more people on both sides have to die. 

Ukrainian unit trained in France falls apart immediately after being deployed to Pokrovsk.

 

Leopard II Tank. The Telegraph/Getty.

An Ukrainian unit trained in France has fallen apart after being deployed to Pokrovsk in the war against Russia. The Telegraph. The 155th mechanized brigade had 1700 troops go AWOL before even firing a shot. 50 deserted while the unit was being trained in France. 500 of the troops that went AWOL never returned to the unit before it was deployed to the logistics hub of Pokrovsk, which is a major target for Russia. The 155th, known as the Anne of Kiev unit, was largely destroyed during the battle of Pokrovsk, with its remnants folded into other units in the region. The unit lost many tanks and armored vehicles in the fighting. Much of the issue was the fact that the unit was made up of raw recruits with very few members having any military training. The unit also failed to have any drones assigned to it, which is a critical failure in modern warfare. 

My Comment:

The 155th is a good example of how bad things are getting for Ukraine. The unit was barely able to be staffed as many recruits were picked off by other units and when they did find people? A large portion of them deserted before then even got deployed and even more did afterwards. 

Part of the problem is the way Ukraine is training their units. Instead of reconstructing their veteran units so they have a good mix of new recruits and veterans, they are sending new recruits in this major units to get destroyed. Though these men were trained in France, they still did not last long and what they really needed was the presence of combat veterans to give them some backbone. 

I am not surprised that so many of them deserted. Many Ukrainian men have been gang pressed into the fighting and even the volunteers have to see the writing on the wall. Ukraine probably can't hold out through the end of 2025 and nobody wants to be the last one to die in a pointless war. And the folks that deserted in France itself are probably the smartest ones. Not only do they avoid combat they also get to start a new life in France, which is probably unlikely to deport them. 

The fact that this unit was kitted out with new foreign weapons, like the Leopard II tank and the French Caesar Howitzers, but had a complete lack of drones is just insane to me. Drone warfare is not optional in modern conflict and without any recon drones the 155th would be fighting blind. It's little wonder that they got mauled so bad. And it also goes to show how bad things are going in terms of supplies. This was a major unit and Ukraine couldn't find any drones for them? 

I do think that the Russian way of doing things is a lot smarter. They rotate units instead of leaving them on the front forever only to be replaced by new recruits. This allows units to rest and recuperate and rebuild in safety. But Ukraine's effort is so much worse and is a big reason they are having so many problems with their troops. 

As for the war itself, it has faded into the background, but it seems clear that no matter what Donald Trump decides to do. Ukraine has simply ran out of men while Russia is able to replace their losses. Given the huge number of desertions in this unit and others and the major manpower and weapons shortages I don't see how Ukraine survives the year.   

Two major terror attacks in one day. Are the New Orleans car ramming attack and the Las Vegas Trump Hotel car bomb related?

 

Police at the scene of the car ramming attack in New Orleans. CBS News/AP.

15 people were killed and dozens were wounded in a car ramming and shooting attack on Bourbon Street New Orleans. CBS News. The attacker used a rented Ford F-150 and rammed it into dozens of people before crashing and getting into a shootout with police. The suspect is a 42 year old citizen named Shamsud-Din Jabbar and was an Army veteran. Jabbar had an ISIS flag flying from the truck and had pledged allegiance to the terror group in a video posted before the attack. The FBI believes that Jabbar had help. In addition to the truck, body armor and a suppressed rifle, Jabbar was armed with IED's that did not explode. Additional IED's were placed in the city but they were found and disarmed, which is a major reason why the FBI believes that Jabbar had accomplices. 

Security footage of the Cybertruck right before the explosion. ABC News.

Police are looking for links to the New Orleans attack and the car bombing of Trump Las Vegas Hotel. ABC News. A driver drove a Cybertruck loaded with fireworks and other explosives to the entrance of the Trump hotel and ignited it, causing a major explosion. The driver was the only person killed in the attack, though several people were injured. Law enforcement noted that both the Cybertruck used in the Las Vegas attack and the F-150 rented in New Orleans were rented via the Turo app, a popular car sharing service. No other connection to the New Orleans attack has been found so far as of this writing. 

That is not a battery fire.

That is an explosive device placed in a Cybertruck in front of a Trump hotel.

Clearly a message is being sent to Elon and President Trump.

pic.twitter.com/v8WuAgH3dT

— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) January 1, 2025

My Comment:

Very concerning way to start the year. It seems clear that there is at least one terror cell at large right now and given that this is an ongoing situation, it might not be over yet. It seems clear that both of these attacks were terrorism. 

I had honestly been expecting something like the New Orleans attack for some time now. Car ramming attacks are easy to carry out and require very little in terms of planning and funding. Indeed, it seems that this attack was a bit more sophisticated than that because the attacker had IED's and a suppressed rifle, both of which require more funding and expertise than the run of the mill car ramming attack. 

The Las Vegas attack seems to be similar. The attacker needed a pretty serious bomb and though it wasn't effective, it certainly could have been. The more solid build quality of the Tesla might have had something to do with the low casualties, it seems to have contained at least some of the blast and the battery did not seem to ignite either, despite the fireworks, explosive and fuel in the vehicle. 

Is there a link between the two attacks? Right now the only thing they have to go on is the Turo app, which is apparently a popular car rental service, essentially an Airbnb for cars. I would say that the fact that both attacks involved bombs that this was indeed a larger plot. I believe in coincidences but having two major attacks on the same day, both involving bombs, one having ISIS connections and the other appearing to be a suicide bombing; that's a bit hard to accept as one. 

It does seem like there were some failures here. Though law enforcement was able to shoot and kill this attacker after he crashed, and did a fine job in general, I do wonder what the issue was with the anti-ramming bollards that are supposed to stop these attacks. Supposedly they were out of order, which is going to fuel conspiracy theories. 

This is going to further fuel the immigration debate, especially after both Trump and Musk were involved in the H1B debate/debacle. The only attacker identified as of this writing was an US citizen but he was a Muslim and that will be enough to make folks wonder why we allow these kinds of people in the United States in the first place. And it does show that it's not just 1st generation immigrants that can commit terror attacks. Is it fair that this is going to bring up immigration as a debate when the attacker wasn't one, as far as we can tell? No, but that's the world we live in.

It's unclear how wide this conspiracy is. Is this a home grown plot or did the funding come from ISIS in Syria? Or is ISIS just a patsy for some other terror group? I am guessing that there was indeed some outside support, this amount of sophistication and the weapons involved indicate that there was some major funding, bombs, rifles, body armor and vehicle rentals are not cheap and every thing I have heard about Jabbar is that he was an unemployed wastrel with no real source of money. Someone absolutely helped him. 

Will there be follow up attacks? It's very possible and I will be worried about it until the bombmaker is caught. I doubt Jabbar was it, though I guess it is possible, and if the bombmaker is still out there then there could be more attacks. Bombmakers are specialists and capturing or killing whoever made these bombs is still out there, more likely than not. Until that person is caught we are very likely to see more attacks, if they haven't gone entirely into the wind. 

Finally I guess I should discuss the possibility that these two attacks were not actually related. I find that to be extremely unlikely, but it's possible that there was no real link. That would be a massive coincidence though and one I can't imagine being true. But to be fair, the choice of a Cybertruck at a Trump property could indicate a different motive as I doubt many Muslims care about the Musk-Trump links. But given that the New Orleans attack was done by an American citizen I seriously doubt that.