RAM prices skyrocket as producers switch to supplying AI datacenters.

 

A computer shop in China. Reuters.

AI is causing a crisis in consumer RAM prices as AI demand is sucking up a huge amount of production. Reuters. The price spike is affecting all kinds of memory, but DRAM is the most effected. The shortage could cause major problems, not only for consumer electronics, but for AI data centers themselves. Inventory of chips has been greatly reduced and there are fears that the higher prices could cause the AI bubble to pop. The prices of many consumer electronics will jump as well, with lower end smartphones, PC's and video game consoles bearing the brunt of the costs. 

The crisis has caused one of the big three memory producers, Micron, to abandon their consumer division to focus on AI sales. 

My Comment:

Outside of the tech world this story has been largely ignored. But folks who are going to try and buy a new PC or video game console are likely to see a major sticker shock in a month or two. This is a major crisis and it has echoes of the GPU crisis when crypto mining became a huge thing. That bubble eventually burst but it was a very bad time to be a PC gamer. It looks like we are going to see something similar here, but the fallout could be far beyond just gaming this time around. In short, if you are on the fence about buying/building a new PC, video game console, or lower spec smartphone, you should absolutely have done it a month ago, and failing that, you should do it now. 

AI is, of course, causing the bulk of this issue. Chip companies know that they can make more profit off of the data centers that are going up than they can from PC gamers and other consumers so they are logically making the choice to do so. These data centers are used for the various LLM's like ChatGPT and Grok and they require advanced chips. So it's no surprise that these companies are focusing on that. 

It's very bad news especially for video games and the people that buy and produce them. It sounds like Xbox is going to increase prices for their consoles and if you were thinking about building a PC, expect to pay $200 or $300 for RAM alone. GPU prices are stable but the costs of SSD hard drives are getting more expensive as well. In short, it's a terrible time to try and build a PC or buy a console. 

It's also a bad time for companies to release new consoles as well. I know the Steam Machine is supposedly coming out next year and there is a good chance that might not be in the cards anymore depending on how Valve planned things. If they got a large stockpile of DRAM sitting around awaiting the launch they could be able to put it out at a fair price. But if they didn't they are going to have to price the thing as much as a full PC costs pre-spike, which means it's almost certain to fail. And that's just one example, a lot of tech companies are going to face difficult decisions as this crisis continues. 

For me personally, I should not be affected too greatly. My gaming PC is future proof for at least a couple of years, I already have 32 gigs of RAM, which should last through the crisis as production is supposed to increase in 2027. I also just bought a new laptop to replace my dying gaming laptop. It's not high end or anything but it's crazy to think that the 16 gigs of ram it has is now worth more than half of what I paid for it. My phone is new this year as well, so at the very least, I should be able to weather this storm, assuming none of my components burn out or some other disaster befalls me. 

I do wonder how long this AI craze is going to last. I use LLM's myself, as Grok came free with my blue check subscription. It's certainly a useful tool. It's great at collecting information and bouncing ideas off of it, but I still don't really understand how anyone is supposed to make money off of it. I do think that sooner or later the AI bubble is going to burst, all bubbles do, when the hype doesn't quite match the results. But until that happens anything involving tech is probably going to be very expensive. 

Treasury Department, Congressional Oversite Committee, open up investigation of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz due to Somali welfare fraud scandal.

 

Governor Tim Walz. New York Post/Reuters. 

The Treasury Department and the Congressional Oversite Committee have opened up investigations of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz due to the Somali welfare fraud scandal that cost taxpayers of the state up to $1 billion. New York Post. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said that Tim Walz was informed about the fraud but went after whistleblowers instead. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that his investigators would be looking at how money was sent to the al-Shabaab terror group in Somali via the Minnesota welfare fraud. The scandal had been bubbling under the surface for months, but new accusations have propelled the story nationally. A whistleblower account on X said that Walz was directly responsible for the fraud and did nothing to prevent the scandal despite being informed of it by his employees. 

Tim Walz is 100% responsible for massive fraud in Minnesota. We let Tim Walz know of fraud early on, hoping for a partnership in stopping fraud but no, we got the opposite response. Tim Walz systematically retaliated against whistleblowers using monitoring, threats, repression,… https://t.co/cEtbnuKmgn

— Minnesota Staff Fraud Reporting Commentary (@Minnesota_DHS) November 30, 2025

My Comment:

I wrote an in depth post about this scandal last week.  Read that if you are unfamiliar with the details of the case. The summary is that Somali immigrants in Minnesota were syphoning off hundreds of millions of dollars in welfare and social program frauds. Much of that money ended up in Somalia, feeding both sides of the civil war there, but more importantly, it was fed to the Somali terror group al-Shabaab. It's an absolutely massive scandal. 

Tim Walz is also deeply involved in the case. There are allegations against Walz that he knew about the fraud but did nothing to prevent it. Indeed, it's possible that he retaliated against people that warned about the massive red flags they were seeing in the welfare business. He could even face criminal charges if evidence is found that he covered up the fraud. That seems very unlikely but 

To be fair, I don't think Tim Walz was involved in the fraud itself. And it's for the same reason I never even considered the words of Vance Bolter, the assassin that shot two Minnesota State Senators. Tim Walz just simply not smart enough to run a fraud scheme or hire an assassin. He is not a smart guy and seems like a very good example of someone unqualified making it far in politics. 

The real question is if there was a coverup. There are allegations that Tim Walz did indeed know about the fraud and could have prevented it. This isn't proven yet, but it does seem likely. The fraud was not that well hidden and there are people online that work in Minnesota that have made the accusation that Walz was informed and even took retaliation against whistleblowers. If those accusations are proven, then I don't see how Walz has a political career. 

His greatest defense here is, again, his incompetence. I really don't have a high opinion of Walz and his management, his addition to the Kamala Harris campaign was an absolute joke, and only Walz would say in a debate "I'm friends with School Shooters!". Of course, incompetence at this scale might save him from criminal charges (if he isn't guilty of the whistleblower retaliation) but I don't think it will save his career at this point. 

Indeed, this represents a rare opportunity for Republicans in the state. Walz is somehow still running for Governor and if he does run, he faces a very good chance of losing if this scandal has legs. Absolutely nobody is happy with Walz and his performance right now, though many of his Democrat voters will still "vote blue no matter who". Minnesota is a blue state, but it is moving in the purple direction and a huge motivating scandal like this could move independents into the Republican column and keep some Democratic voters home. 

Given this, I am guessing that the National Democratic Party and the State Democratic Farmer Labor party will drop Tim Walz like a hot potato. The Democrats in general are many things, most of them bad, but I can't imagine them making such a mistake as keeping Walz in the race. He's absolutely toxic now and was an embarrassment during the 2024 Presidential race. I don't know if they will be willing to force him to resign in disgrace, but I also can't imagine that they won't force him out of the race. If they do I am fully predicting that the GOP picks up the Minnesota Governor. I doubt they would keep it for more than a term, just like Virginia, without a motivating issue like the Somali scandal, they will probably lose it after one term. 

Regardless of what happens in Minnesota, I can't imagine that Walz will ever have a career after this on the national stage. There was some chatter that he was going to run as a Minnesota Senator, and position that seemed likely that he would win. He could have even run as a long shot Presidential candidate. But there is zero chance of any of that happening. Indeed, I can't even see him on the new talking head path at this point, Democrats are going to want to wash their hands of Walz completely... 

The saber rattling against Venezuela continues as Trump closes air space and demands President Maduro resigns.

 

President Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela. New York Post/AFP/Getty.

The saber rattling against Venezuela continues as Trump closes air space and demands President Maduro resigns. New York Post. President Trump and Nicholas Maduro held a high stakes call. At issue is Maduro's alleged support of drug smuggling and narco-terror groups that are smuggling drugs into the United States. Maduro had demanded that he would be allowed to remain in control of the military before free elections and that he be pardoned for any potential crimes. Trump refused and said that Maduro would be given safe passage out of Venezuela. Talks broke down at that point with Trump closing Venezuelan air space in response. Trump has also threatened strikes against the drug gangs in Venezuela. 

My Comment:

Venezuela kind of popped up out of nowhere. I know Venezuela got a lot of blame for the drug smuggling issue and the Tren De Aragua issues we have had in the United States, but given the multiple other foreign policy issues that have cropped up, they were low priority. 

First of all, I have to say that a full scale Iraq War style invasion is pretty much impossible at this point. We don't have anywhere near the troops in the region to even attempt it, and there is zero desire for anyone in the United States, outside of the crustiest of neocons, for that to happen. There has been a troop buildup but it's mostly naval assets. 

There is a small chance of some kind of military conflict, but it would come in the form of airstrikes, not an invasion. I am guessing that drug smuggler bases or ports could be attacked, given that would be the casus belli of the conflict. A direct attack against Maduro itself could be in the cards too, but that would be more difficult. 

However, I don't think military action, beyond the naval stuff we have seen already, is really in the cards. President Maduro seemed rather open to leaving power and the fact that he was asking for amnesty and agreeing to elections, probably indicates he is fairly desperate for a deal. And, from what I understand, members of his regime are attempting to save their own necks as well as their Presidents. I would not be surprised if this does have a diplomatic resolution. Neither side seems so steadfast in their positions here that a deal can't be made, and given that Trump was downplaying the air space closure today, I am guessing more talks are going to be held. 

Indeed, this seems like a classic Trump maneuver. Though Trump has been called many things, the one thing you can't deny is that he's a diplomat at heart. He wants to be the guy to end conflicts, not start them, so even if things do degrade into military action, expect them to always leave an out for Maduro. It reminds me of the conflict with Iran, where Trump was working for a peace deal even as he bombed Iranian nuclear strikes. The last thing he wants is a real conflict. 

The timing for this is not great though. Trump was widely praised by his base for, finally, refocusing on domestic issues after the Washington DC attack on National Guardsmen. In response Trump finally took some real action on immigration, something that his base was demanding for a long time. 

What I can tell you is that nobody in his base is very excited by the fact that the focus seemed to last less than a holiday weekend, and he's right back onto foreign policy. Indeed, I'm rather annoyed myself. The Washington attack was something Trump should have hammered down on given how preventable the attack was and how much of a winner the issue is for Republicans. Venezuela though? Nobody really cares about that. It's not even an urgent situation, compared to something like the Russia Ukraine war. Sure drugs are a problem, but domestically, things need to be handled. 

Regardless, like I said, I fully expect a diplomatic solution. Maduro seems to get that the gig is up and is looking for an exit and the only question is the how and when. I am guessing that airstrikes will be avoided and that Maduro will step down and leave the country for a place like Russia. 

Two National Guard soldiers ambushed in Washington DC by Afghan illegal alien.

 

Soldiers stand guard near the scene of the shooting. Reuters. 

Two members of the West Virginia National Guard were ambushed in Washington DC by an Afghanistan national in the country illegally. Reuters. The suspect was identified as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a 29 year old who was admitted into the United States under Joe Biden's visa program put into place after the fall of the Afghan government to the Taliban. The National Guard were patrolling as part of President Trump's crime crackdown. The motivations of the attacker have not been revealed publicly, but terrorism is suspected and the FBI is investigating if he had any links to outside groups, though none are suspected at this time. In response, President Trump has deployed 500 more troops to the city. 

My Comment:

The status of the wounded soldiers is unclear at this point. There were reports that both of them were dead, but that wasn't confirmed, so I am assuming that as of this writing they are indeed alive. Hopefully they stay that way. 

This attack was entirely predictable. Indeed, I believe I said that bringing in thousands of Afghan immigrants without vetting in the chaos that was the Afghanistan withdrawal would absolutely lead to something like this. We had no vetting to see if these people coming into the United States were friendly and it's very likely that this man fell through the cracks. I guess it's possible that he got radicalized after he got here, but that seems very unlikely. 

I also have very little doubt that this was Islamic terrorism. Supposedly the attacker said "Allah Akbar", "god is great" before he got into the gunfight, which is an obvious tell. The real question is if he was a "lone wolf" attacker, if he had links to terrorists or if he was an out and out member of a terror group like ISIS. I am guessing he will be the first one, there aren't that many active terror groups that can fund and promote attacks anymore. 

I am going to say that this was a policy failure on the part of the Trump administration. Obviously, Biden never should have let him in to begin with, but Trump should have deported this guy. His visa had expired and you would have thought folks let in under Biden's program would have been the first to go. Supposedly, this guy was an interpreter, so maybe he wouldn't have been deported anyways, but I don't really understand why these guys weren't the first on the list to be deported. Hopefully they will be now. 

I do think that Trump's focus on foreign policy is worth criticizing at this point. Trump has been focused on ending foreign wars, which is obviously commendable, and he has had a lot of success. But this attack is going to cause some serious demands for him to refocus back on the issue that got him elected.  Twice. I know that the Russia Ukraine war might be getting close to some kind of resolution and that is drawing a lot of attention from his administration, but at some point enough is enough and the focus has to be at home. 

The Democrats reactions to this has been predictable. Before anyone knew who was responsible, they were very loud saying that this had nothing to do with the video they released that encouraged soldiers to disobey "unlawful" orders, without specifying what those orders were. And some of them were either downplaying the attack, saying that they soldiers shouldn't have been there in the first place if they didn't want to get shot, or even celebrating it! They got a lot more quiet when it was revealed the suspect was a Afghan national, but it still happened. 

Was this attack a failure? I am not sure. So far at least, nobody has died, and the suspect was wounded and captured himself. But the image of soldiers being shot only a block or two from the White House? That's going to stick with people. The attack was mostly a failure, but I can't deny the fact that this was impactful... 

Chaos and hilarity on X/Twitter as the location feature shows many users were falsely posing as Americans.

 

Screenshot of a fake Ivanka Trump page.

X, formerly known as Twitter, released a new location feature that exposed many accounts as falsely posing as Americans. BBC. Thousands of accounts were exposed as not being American in the update, which caused a large amount of criticism. The accounts were both pro-and anti-Trump. Many of these accounts were based in India and Nigeria and were verified and monetized by the platform. Motivation for these accounts is varied, some are attempting to exploit America's culture war for money while others may be trying to influence policy. America was not the only country to have fake users, with the BBC finding many pro-independence accounts in Scotland were actually based in Iran. 

My Comment:

A lighter news story for once, this entire situation was endlessly entertaining for me this weekend. So many accounts got exposed for not being what they claimed to be and everyone else was laughing at them while proving that they actually are Americans. 

Most news outlets are trying to make this political but it really isn't. There were impersonators on both sides, fake Republicans and Democrats. And many of these accounts weren't political in any way, they were just scamming people or trying to scam money from the monetization system. And it's not like it was just America that was affected by this, the report mentioned Scotland, but there are other examples too. 

Indeed, it's been a meme for awhile that a lot of these accounts were pretty obviously fake. From what it sounds like the fake pro-Trump accounts were mostly Nigerian, anti-Trump accounts were European or Canadian, "groyper" accounts were European and Indian accounts were faking anything and everything. None of this is new. Indeed, the constant stream of fake Elon Musk accounts was beyond annoying for a long time on X. 

This does raise some questions about the monetization system on X. For the sake of disclosure, I am verified on X but not monetized and it is a goal of mine. But it's a lot harder to do legitimately than simply doing what these accounts are doing, impersonating an American and then using bot farms to boost their accounts. That means folks are getting money for fake content that should be going to actual real accounts, and that sucks. 

What is a concern is the idea these accounts could have been influencing elections or other major issues. The Israel-Gaza conflict is a good example of this. Many pro-Israel accounts were actually Indians, either because they wanted to exploit the issue for monetization, or because they genuinely like Israel. And the anti-Israel people were often Europeans or from Muslim countries. Both of these kinds of accounts may have falsely increased the relevance of the issue. And the same thing could have happened in the 2025 midterm elections as well, on both sides of the ball. 

I should note that I don't have a problem with foreigners commenting on American politics. After all, American politics are fairly global and sometimes those folks bring up good points. Indeed, I follow folks from all of the world. It's the impersonation and exploitation of monetization that is a problem, not to mention the out and out scammers. 

I do think that this was an extremely good idea by Elon Musk and X and it's something that I really wish was universal over all social media. I'm generally opposed to digital ID's and such, but transparency for social media is a little different. I should have a good idea of where posters are posting from, but right now I can only do that on X. It should be universal. 

Secretary of Stare Marco Rubio says "tremendous progress" in Russia Ukraine peace deal...

 

BBC/EPA.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there has been "tremendous progress" in a proposed Russia-Ukraine peace deal. BBC. The statements came after Trump put pressure on Ukraine to end the war via his Truth Social account. There had been concern from Pro-Ukraine factions that the deal proposed last week was too generous to Russia and it is unclear what, if any, concessions were given to Ukraine. However, Ukraine does seem to be positively reacting to talks. The US plan was a 28 point plan and progress has been made to narrowing Ukrainian objections to the plan. Russia has vowed support to the leaked plan and it is unclear how much work needs to be done to bring the parties together. Trump gave Ukraine until this Thursday to agree to a deal, though he latter said that there may be further offers. 

My Comment:

I do hope that Rubio didn't give away the goat with this revised deal. The previous version, lambasted in the media as pro-Russia, seemed quite the opposite to me, given that Zelensky would remain in power and Ukraine would be allowed to have a military and "security guarantees". Indeed, the only thing that I thought was pro-Russia is that there wasn't an equivalent exchange of land in the North that Russia captured for the disputed Donbas territories. 

As a review, the original plan called for Ukraine to give up all of Donbas, claims to Crimea and the line in other areas would determine by where the front lines are. It would incentivize Russia by ending sanctions and giving one of their war goals, no path to NATO for Ukraine. Ukraine would get to keep a smaller military and would have to accept Russia as an official language (racism against Russian speakers was a major reason why the war started in the first place). 

I am guessing that Ukraine got some kind of face saving concessions if they are positive about this. I think the exchange of land could be a thing that they would agree too in the most current draft. Russia controls some minor territories in the north near Kharkov and Sumy, and these could be exchanged for the parts of Donbas they have yet to conquer. Russia would still be gaining more than they would be losing but it would allow Ukraine to say that they didn't give away the farm either. 

What concerns me is that the deal might be for stronger security guarantees for Ukraine. Anything that could potentially draw America into a conflict with Russia is not something I would support, so any kind of mutual defense pact would be a deal breaker for me. How much of a concession Ukraine got here could be the thing that breaks the whole deal apart. Such a deal would be unlikely for obvious reasons, Ukraine would then have a motivation to restart the war with the United States as an ally, but you never know how much they gave away. 

Will Russia play ball? I think it really depends just how far these concessions go. Russia does have some motivation to end the war, but keep in mind they are winning right now. Much of the Ukrainian military is getting caught up in cauldrons and it's clear that Russia's attritional strategy is working. They have little reason to give major concessions to Ukraine under any circumstances given how strong their position is on the battlefield. 

However, the original deal did seem like it was finally listening to what Russia was saying. They don't want NATO to expand, they don't want a militarized Ukraine and they don't want Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine to be discriminated against. If some concessions are made to Ukraine (and the land swap one seems very obvious) than it's very possible that they will accept. 

I do hope that if Zelensky refuses to accept even this watered down proposal that President Trump finally throws up his hands and cuts him off. I have never liked Zelensky and I give him the lion's share of the blame for this war continuing as long as it has. The original deal was better than he deserved so I am hoping that Zelensky sees the writing on the wall and ends the war, despite the threats against him and his presidency. 

Minnesota taxpayers fleeced of millions of dollars from welfare fraud and the stolen funds were sent to terrorists in Somalia.

File photo of Al-Shabaab fighters. Radio al-Andalus.

Minnesota taxpayers were fleeced of millions of dollars from welfare fraud and some of the stolen funds ended up in the hands of Somali terrorist group al-Shabaab. City Journal. Fraud is a huge problem in Minnesota and much of the fraud is coming from the states large Somali community. Minnesota's Medicaid Housing Stabilization Services, HSS, was supposed to help people gain housing, but an investigation showed the majority of claims were fraudulent. Many of the companies that were contracted to help people were just fronts and the money did not go to any people in need. The Feeding our Future company was supposed to help children and families sign up for the Federal Child Nutrition Program, but the money was funneled to founders. When confronted with the fraud, the suspects claimed "racism", but were charged anyways. One of the players in the Feeding our Future scam was also involved in an additional fraud in Minnesota's Early Intensive Developmental and Behavioral Intervention program, a program to help autistic children. The fraud was so broad that 1 out of 16  four year old Somali children in the state were listed as autistic. 

The cost of these frauds is estimated to be in the billions. And much of that money was sent back into Somalia. In 2023 $1.3 billion dollars were sent to Somalia as remittances, more than the budget of the government of Somalia, and much of it was ill gotten gains. Most concerning is the fact that some of the money was getting to the Somali terror group al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab is a long running terror group guilty of several very large terror attacks in the region and links to al-Qaeda and ISIS. Some of the money was sent to the group directly, while in other cases the money was taken as taxes. It is claimed that the Minnesota taxpayer is the largest funder of al-Shabaab. 

My Comment:

It's hard not to be disgusted by what these people were doing. Instead of helping their community they were sending taxpayer dollars to Somali, which is bad enough on it's own. But the idea that these taxpayers were indirectly funding one of the more notorious terror groups in the world is beyond the pale. This is going to be a huge scandal for Governor Tim Walz and the Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party. 

That there was corruption at all should not have been surprising. This is how things work in the third world. But the problem is that nobody could speak out about it because the people that were doing this were Somali in origin. They are a favored group for the Democrats as they have a good get out the vote mechanism (more accurately, a voter fraud program) and they are also an immigrant community, both of which means they are progressive darlings. 

Folks were indeed of being called racist and that's one of the reasons why folks weren't charged until now. But much of it is also because of willful ignorance on the part of State and National figures in the Democratic Party. You can't tell me that Governor Tim Walz and Representative Ilhan Omar didn't know, as Omar directly lobbied Walz for more money from this program. 

The fact that the money ended up in the hands of al-Shabaab should not have been surprising at all. The terror group gains some money from direct donations, but that's probably not where the majority of the money was coming from. Instead, the majority of it was from taxation. Much like the cartels in Mexico, al-Shabaab was demanding a cut from the people that were receiving remittances gathered from the fraud. The money gets there from "hawalas", informal trade networks that avoid any tracing as it avoids actual banks. The terrorists help facilitate the movement of money and they also take bribes and taxes from Somali citizens. 

And the money they collected? It went to violence. Al-Shabaab is currently launching a major offensive that is threatening to take the capital of the country, Mogadishu. They actually have taken a large portion of Southern Somalia and control much o the countryside there. The fighting this year alone has killed around 1000 people, and that number is just going to go up. Were it not for this fraud, things might still be bad, al-Shabaab has a large tax base now, but they would not be doing as well as they are now. 

All of this is infuriating to me. The idea that there was going to be major fraud in welfare programs targeting the Somali community in Minnesota was something that should have been obvious for everyone. The idea that the money coming out of Minnesota would be funding al-Shabaab should also not have been surprising.

So why didn't the Democrats see this coming? Well, some of them obviously did. I have no doubt that Ilhan Omar was aware of what was happening and didn't care. But the rank and file people suffer from pathological empathy, where they sympathize with foreigners over their own people. To them, pointing out the obvious is racist because everyone is good at heart and folks are products of their environment, not their DNA. They fully bought into the tabula rosa/blank slate ideology, which leads to them getting burned from things like this. 

This should have major political implications for the Democrats in Minnesota. Minnesota is a blue state but it's on the verge of being a swing state, like Wisconsin. Indeed, the Somali community is the main reason why it's not a swing state, along with other immigrant groups. Folks are going to be disgusted like this and it could lead to Tim Walz, who is up for election next year, losing to his Republican challenger. That could be optimistic on my part, but I do think this scandal will have legs. 

Of course, I don't think it will lead to long term changes, even if Tim Walz loses. At best, we will see what we saw in Virginia, where Glenn Youngkin used a similar scandal, the trans bathroom issue, to propel himself into power. But then the GOP lost the state as soon as the next election as the issue was no longer relevant. Though Minnesota is close to being a swing state, it's not there yet and things might have to get worse than massive fraud being used to fund a foreign terror group to change it, if change is even possible at this point. 

I also have major fears for my own state, Wisconsin. I live in an area with Somali refugees, and though they are just another group of people to me, some good, some bad, most in the middle, I do worry that the community here would be doing some of the same things. The idea that my tax dollars could be going to fund an Islamic terror group is, quite frankly, disgusting. It's horrifying to me... 

Newest US Russia-Ukraine peace plan would involve Ukraine giving up territory.

 

Turkey's President Erdogan with Ukraine's President Zelensky. Reuters. 

Newest US Russia-Ukraine peace plan would involve Ukraine giving up territory. Reuters. The deal would involve Ukraine losing territory, including all of Donbas as well as Crimea as well as giving up certain weapons systems and reducing the size of their military. In exchange Ukraine would get an end to the war, security guarantees from the United States. No foreign peacekeepers would be deployed to Ukraine and they would also have to give up their aspirations to join NATO. The security guarantees would involve arms sales and intel sharing but would not invoke America joining the war if it were to start again. Ukraine hasn't signed on to any deal, but President Zelensky is meeting with Turkey's President Erdogan which could lead to more negotiations, given Turkey's warm relations with both countries. 

My Comment:

This proposal, which hasn't officially been revealed, seems like a fair one and an expansion of previous offers. Previous offers did not give Russia enough for them to seriously consider the deal, but this one, which mandates at least some level of disarmament for Ukraine, seems like it would be a lot more likely to be accepted, at least by Russia. 

Russia would stand to gain the territory they want and would be ensured that Ukraine would never join NATO, which was a major war goal and a casus belli for the war in the first place. They would also be ensured that no NATO armies, labeled as "peacekeepers", would be deployed to Ukraine to restart the war. Presumably they would have major incentives, including the lifting of sanctions and normalizing of relations. 

Ukraine would be an obvious loser in this, but it's not like they would get nothing, which is what they would get if they continue the war. I am guessing if Zelensky torpedoes this peace deal, if Russia is on board, he will be cut off from support. Ukraine would also continue to get aid and arms sales from he United States and would ensure friendly treatment from the United States, so it's not like they would get nothing out of this agreement. 

Zelensky might be under major pressure to make a deal as well. I wrote earlier about the scandal rocking his administration, a scandal that could bring him down if he doesn't manage it. Brining an end to an unpopular war might save him when next to nothing else will. Of course, Zelensky is also the biggest stumbling block for any deal as well as he has major incentives to keep the war going. Like I have always said, he's at risk from being killed or removed from hardliners in his government and military and he might think continuing the war would be worth it. Not to mention that he will likely lose any election held after the end of the war regardless if he plays a role in it ending. 

Europe could be a problem as well. Some states are starting to feel major war fatigue, like Germany and might be willing to end things. But I worry about Eastern Europe, who hate Russia to the point they want World War III, and the UK, which has legitimately gone insane over the issue. Europe might not have a choice in the matter though, given that Trump is clearly bypassing them in the first place. 

Either way, this is probably the last, best, chance for peace. Russia has shown some major battlefield advances and their attrition strategy is working. Ukraine is having massive manpower problems and it's only a matter of times before their defensive lines collapse completely. At that point Putin will no longer have any reason to make a deal and the war will end with a total Ukrainian defeat. 

Mexico again rejects proposed strikes against Cartels by the US government.

 

US Soldiers on patrol with a Stryker Fighting Vehicle on the border of Mexico. Fox News/AP.

Mexico has again rejected a proposal by President Trump to strike drug Cartels in Mexico proper. Fox News. Trump was asked if he would consider the strikes and he said it was "good with me" adding he would do "whatever it takes" to stop drugs from entering the United States. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rejected the proposal saying that they welcome cooperation on the almost two decade long drug war, they viewed strikes as a violation of Mexican sovereignty. Trump has launched strikes at drug smugglers on both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans but has refrained from launching airstrikes. The report comes after a minor incident on the border. US contractors put signs on a small island at the mouth of the Rio Grande river saying the property was restricted, but Mexico took down the signs saying that the island was actually in Mexican territory. 

My Comment:

Given the chaos that is happening in Mexico right now, this is probably unwelcome news for Claudia Sheinbaum. She's in a difficult position of keeping the Cartels pacified, keeping her own people from kicking her out of power and keeping Trump happy enough that he doesn't just do what he wants. And she has to do that while managing a major drug war and corruption in her own government. I don't envy her. 

An offhand comment at a press conference should not be taken as an ironclad commitment to policy, especially when it comes to Donald Trump. He often floats ideas like this and often talks about things he would potentially like to do, but can't or won't. However, it is very unclear if this is one of those things. Given that Trump is already hitting the Mexican Drug Cartels drug fleet pretty hard with airstrikes, launching similar attacks against their ground bases and smuggling operations is not too far outside of the Overton Window. 

And it's not like America and Mexico haven't had military conflicts in the past. Indeed, Pancho Villa's raid on Columbus remains the last time a foreign invader attacked US soil directly with ground troops (excluding Alaska in WWII of course). Indeed, we have even fought criminal groups in Mexico before. Another conflict would not be unprecedented. 

Realistically, there is nothing that the Mexican Government could do if America did decide to launch airstrikes. They have a military but nothing compared to the massive military might that is the United States. Given that attacks would likely be launched by drones, I don't know if they would have any chance at countering any attacks. 

Still, I think that any real airstrikes are unlikely against the Mexican Cartels. Trump is just saber rattling again. He might be trying to pressure Sheinbaum to do more against the Cartels or is perhaps pressuring her due to the protests going on against her right now. But I doubt this is a real threat to launch airstrikes. 

Finally, the minor incident on the border seems pretty mild. Some contractors put up signs in a constantly shifting area (a river delta) and then the Mexican government took them down. It's the exact opposite of a big deal. Nobody got hurt or killed and it was more of an annoyance than anything. 

Mexico riots to protest out of control crime and corruption.

 

Rioters confront police in Mexico City. Politico/AP.

Riots have broken out in Mexico to protest out of control crime and corruption. Politico. Though some protesters were peaceful, violence broke out with 120 people injured and 20 arrests in Mexico City. The protests have been dubbed "Gen Z" protests but participation has been mixed in terms of age. Healthcare, security and corruption are the main focus, but there is anger at Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Despite the protests her approval ratings remain high. However, she has been criticized for not doing enough against the cartels, who recently murdered a popular Mayor in Michoacan. 

My Comment:

This is less of a "Gen Z" protest and more of a general protest against the status quo. The protests are non-partisan but some prominent Mexican right-wingers support it and the Mexican government is trying to paint it is right wing. But they are also protesting for healthcare, so it's hard to pin down the political affiliation of this movement. 

I've got mixed feelings about this. I am never favor of actual riots. If you do that you lose a ton of sympathy for me. Getting into a fist fight with the cops isn't going to change anything of note. It's just going to turn the police against you and anyone that values law and order. There is obviously something incredibly hypocritical about these people protesting against crime when they are behaving like criminals themselves. 

With that being said, I am in general support of these protests. I absolutely think that Mexico has not done enough to fight the Cartels and it's embarrassing that Claudia Sheinbaum campaigned on "hugs not bullets" as some kind of solution to Cartel violence. That kind of weakness has emboldened the Cartels because they know military force won't be used against them. 

There is some evidence that Sheinbaum might be growing a bit of spine. The murder of the mayor in Michoacan, Carlos Manzo, has resulted in a major military deployment to the state. 10,000 troops and federal police are being sent to the state to hopefully avenge the mayor and arrest/kill the people responsible. 

She's also coming under pressure from President Trump to do something. Trump wanted to drone strike these Cartels and the reason that didn't happen is because Sheinbaum promised to do something. She has helped control the numbers of drugs coming out of Mexico, but she might have t do more if she wants to keep Trump happy. Trump is regularly bombing drug boats in both Oceans now, so if Sheinbaum wants to keep Trump out of Mexico she needs to step up. 

Still, the Cartels have been a generational problem. The Mexican Drug War has lasted almost 20 years now, if you consider the start-date to be 2006. Nothing the Mexican government has done has been able to end the war or crush the cartels. I think the general weakness of the left wing governments and corruption of both right and left wing governments in Mexico has made this an impossible problem to win, without a whole lot of violence. 

The State Department has designated four Antifa groups in Europe as foreign terrorist groups.

 

Antifa in Berlin Germany. Fox News/AFP/Getty.

The State Department has designated four Antifa groups in Europe as foreign terrorist organizations (FTO). Fox News. President Trump had already designated Antifa as a domestic terror group in the United States but this is the first time groups under the umbrella of Antifa has gotten an FTO designation. The groups include Antifa Ost in Germany, the International Revolutionary Front/Informal Anarchist Federation in Italy as well as two Greek groups, Armed Proletarian Justice and Revolutionary Class Self Defense. All of these groups have conducted terrorist actions including bombings, assaults and shootings. The designations are new as left wing groups often get a free pass from terrorist designations. 

My Comment:

The FTO designation is a lot more severe than the domestic terrorist label American Antifa has gotten. This designation allowed military intelligence action, sanctions and travel bans against members of the groups. It's going to be dramatically more disruptive towards these groups than a domestic declaration could ever be. 

It's going to put rather extreme pressure on the states that host these groups to actually do something about them. Left wing groups usually get a pass in the EU given how far left the governments are there themselves and their utter obsession with right wing groups, regardless of how violent each group is. Germany, Greece and Italy are going to come under pressure to start breaking these groups up, along with any other European states that may have members there as well.

This will also effect other Antifa groups, in both Europe and America. This is because providing support for the four groups with the designation is a crime now, and it's very likely that the folks that are bankrolling these groups are banking other groups. Cutting off the funding and prosecuting the people doing so is going to have a major effect on Antifa.

Still, the effect will be small, I doubt there are too many people that are funding European Antifa groups, like these four, and American ones as well. I am guessing the two funding sources are separate, and if they aren't they will be now. 

I obviously think these designations are deserved. All of these groups are guilty of violence and a message needs to be sent that bombings, shootings and assaults are not going to be tolerated by the United States and Europe. Left wing groups are often treated with kids gloves when compared to right wing groups or Islamic terrorists. To be fair, left wing terrorism is more chaotic and has goals other than getting the highest body count, but that doesn't mean that they aren't dangerous and violent. They are more concerned with preventing people from exercising their rights and having a chilling effect on conservative though, not getting a high body count. 

I also think that this is an attempt to give Trump's supporters a bone after a very rough week of messaging from the Republican Party. Folks are upset about the pot ban, Trump's comments on H1B visas and the 50 year home loan proposals, and I don't really blame them. Folks were saying things like "they can ban pot but not do anything about Antifa", so at the very least, that talking point is gone. Taking care of these left wing groups was a campaign promise and I am glad we are moving in that direction. 

Ukraine hit with major corruption scandal.

 

Zelensky along with his Justice Minster, Herman Halushchenko and the head of  Ukraine's power company Enerhoatom, Petro Kotin. BBC/Reuters.

A major corruption scandal has hit Ukraine after evidence of major kickbacks in the energy sector. BBC. Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko were accused of laundering $100 million they embezzled from the energy sector. Some of the money they stole was supposed to go to defending and rebuilding the energy sector, which has been under attack from Russia. The corruption was discovered by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). Zelensky himself almost faced a rebellion last July when he tried to remove the independence of those offices, but backed down after fierce protests, the worst since the Maidan revolution. Zelensky himself was not directly implicated in the scandal, but he was close to many of the major players.  

My Comment:

This is a huge scandal for the Zelensky regime and one that has potential to destroy his presidency. Of course, it would probably take a coup or a revolution to get rid of Zelensky at this point, as long as the war is going on. It's the biggest threat Zelensky has faced domestically since the war began. 

This corruption is beyond the pale. I have never been a fan of Ukraine and their current government and even I am disgusted with this. The funds that these men stole were earmarked for repairing and defending the energy sector. Given that Russia has been pressuring Ukraine's energy system to the point of collapse, the actions of these men have potentially cost Ukraine the war, or, at the very least, made the war a lot harder to win/survive. 

None of this should be surprising though. Ukraine has always been famous for corruption. Indeed, both the Maidan revolution and Zelensky election were fundamentally about ending corruption, but in both cases not much has been done. The fact that they are in the largest war since the turn of the millennium has not changed a thing. 

This scandal is a huge problem for Zelensky of course. He was knee deep with these people, both his Energy Minster and his Justice Minster were deeply involved in the scandal and he has close ties to some of the other players. And everyone, both domestically and foreign, is going to be extremely upset to see the photos of the stacks of cash and golden toilets that were stolen from the people of Ukraine. I'm mad about it because of my tax dollars but imagine how angry you would be if you were an Ukrainian civilian who is suffering under siege from Russia without power or heat while the leadership has stolen the money that was supposed to prevent that? 

And though Zelensky hasn't been directly implicated in the scandal, the optics are absolutely horrible. Zelensky made waves last July when he tried to take over NABU and SAP. That was bad originally, but now we have the absolute appearance of an attempted coverup. It seems very unlikely that Zelensky would do that if he wasn't aware of the corruption in his government. 

Of course, the elephant in the room is the fact that Ukraine is getting destroyed on the battlefield right now. Russia has taken Pokrovsk and cut off thousands of troops in the Pokrovsk pocket, and they have lost a lot of territory in the Zaporizhzhia region as well. They are also losing the energy war as the energy system is barely functional and it's only because Russia doesn't want to completely destroy it for humanitarian and optics reasons that there is any energy at all. In short, it's absolutely not the time to have a massive scandal. 

What will the fallout be? I am not sure. Zelensky is going to be extremely hard to remove due to martial law and the cancelation of elections. He's a dictator at this point and you can't really get rid of dictators unless they step down voluntarily, they die, or there is some kind of major coup/revolution. Right now, none of those things are likely, but the chances just got better. 

Western support, however, might be at risk. It really depends on how the scandal unfolds. Right now Zelensky at least fired the people involved but if the scandal grows and shows direct involvement in corruption for Zelensky himself, Western support might be gone. My guess is that Europe at least is too invested to cut Ukraine loose even if Zelensky is found in bed with a dead woman or live boy, but America and some other supporting powers might finally cut him loose if this scandal gets worse. Especially in the context of the major battlefield defeats Ukraine has suffered. However, Zelensky has proven to be very resilient so I wouldn't be surprised if he does survive this.  

Tucked into the Senate bill to reopen the government is a federal ban on Hemp products.

 

Wisconsin State Senator Dora Drake meeting with a hemp business owner. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Tucked into the Senate bill to reopen the government is a federal ban on hemp products. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The bill will close a "loophole" in the 2018 Farm Bill which legalized hemp derived THC products, like THCA, delta-8, HHC, THCV and CBD oils. Under the new bill, products that have more than 0.4 milligrams of THC would be banned. The ban would decimate an entire industry that has popped up since the 2018 farm bill that employs more than 300,000 people nationally and is worth $28 billion. The bill was challenged by Senator Rand Paul, but passed easily in the Senate and will likely pass the house as it was included with the must pass bill to reopen the shutdown.   

My Comment:

Man, the GOP senate is less than useless. I don't know of anyone who thought banning these THC products was a major issue that needed to be dealt with right now. Indeed, from what I understand, most Americans don't want a ban on these products. Regulation might be a problem, but this isn't regulation, it's just an outright ban. 

It's also a terrible look to get rid of up to 325,000 jobs and a major driver of sales at businesses across the country. Getting rid of jobs right now is a bad move. The economy isn't bad on wall street, but main street has never recovered from the Biden years and the last thing they need is more people out of work. Legal TCH isn't a huge industry, but we can hardly afford to get rid of anything when it comes to these kinds of low-skill jobs. 

It's also another example of how out of touch our ancient senators are. From what I understand, this was a Mitch McConnell thing. McConnel is 83 and he had help from Lindsey Graham (70) and Chuck Grassley (an astounding 92). President Trump, which supports this, is pretty ancient himself. And it makes sense that folks of those ages would be opposed to these products, support for pot has long been divided by age. 

But at some point these ancient folks need to make way for younger Republicans to take over. Anyone under the age of 50 would have been able to tell the Republican Party that these products are popular and widely used and that there was very little appetite for banning them for folks younger than Baby Boomers. This is hardly the only example of the GOP being absolutely out of touch with their younger voters, but it's the most recent and probably one of the more extreme versions. 

Lobbying is probably another factor outside of the GOP leadership being out of touch with their voters. A lot of this is due to the alcohol industry which has faced hard times lately. Folks are taking these THC products instead of getting drunk, which has eaten into their profits. 

Surprisingly enough another major lobbying group is the companies that run legal marijuana businesses in the states where it is legal. These industries are more regulated than the largely unregulated THC industry and they do not appreciate the competition. 

As for my state, this is going to be a problem here. Pot is still illegal in Wisconsin so these products are a way for folks to get high without having to buy from a sketchy drug dealer or driving all the way to Michigan. It's not something I partake in myself, but a lot of folks here do, and there would be a lot of head-shops that would either lose a ton of businesses or could even get shut down because of this, not to mention the places that manufacture these hemp products. This is not something I support at all. 

Will this ban be permanent? I don't think there is a real chance that it fails in the House, the government has to reopen at this point, and though this ban will likely be very unpopular it's not so unpopular that folks are willing to take the hit to keep the government closed. But I fully expect new lawsuits over this and we might see some different legislation next year. 

What concerns me is that the Republicans have just given the Democrats another midterm issue. Much like how the Democrats motivated their voters by putting them out of work during the government shutdown and then trying to blame it on Republicans, Republicans themselves are giving a bunch of voters, who otherwise might have sat out in 2026, an obvious reason to vote. Like I said, this is a total own-goal... 

A Democrat civil war has broken out over ending the government shutdown.

 

Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer. Politico.

A Democrat civil war has broken out over ending the government shutdown. Politico. Senators who voted against ending the shutdown have been apoplectic over the move, calling it a mistake and calling into question the leadership of Chuck Schumer. Eight senators joined with all Republicans except Rand Paul to reopen the government. Schumer, who voted no, has gotten most of the flak though. Democrats did not get much in terms of concessions from the deal, with only a promise to vote on extending Obamacare subsidies, which will fail in the Senate, and the reinstatement of workers fired during the shutdown. Democrats did blame Trump for the vote, but it is notable that Schumer is getting so much blame. 

My Comment:

It seems that the progressives got high on their own supply. The entire health care "crisis" was mostly a manufactured one and one that doesn't actually affect that many people. And they were the ones that let the Obamacare subsidies expire in the first place. Indeed, this was a pandemic era subsidy and it was never meant to be permanent. 

Indeed, the entire thing had almost nothing to do with healthcare and everything to do with last weeks elections. Democrats were vulnerable in both New Jersey and Virginia, and what better way to motivate the Democratic base than by taking away SNAP benefits and putting federal employees out of work for a month?  

This cynical stunt worked for the Democrats, they got the governorship of Virginia and kept the New Jersey one as well. But the problem was that the Democratic base actually believed this was something other than a cynical political stunt. Why they thought this is beyond me, it should have been obvious from the start that the shutdown was a stunt, but again, they got high on their own supply. 

Much of this is probably due to Trump Derangement syndrome. The Democrats liked the shutdown because the Democrats were finally doing something to "stop" Trump. The fact that it wasn't even accomplishing that much didn't matter. And the fact that tons of people were put out of work or lost access to their benefits, things that the Democrats would usually support, didn't matter either. The Democrats were able to throw their voters under the bus for basically no gain outside of two Governor's races they were probably going to win regardless. None of that mattered because they wanted to get Trump. 

Will Chuck Schumer pay the price? I am not sure. Progressives like to make a lot of noise but I am guessing that the powers that be will inform the progressives what the actual goal of the shutdown was. The question is if the progressives will accept that. I do think it's funny that Schumer is the one getting all the heat as opposed to the senators that actually voted to open the government. 

The real problem is that opening the government isn't a long term solution. The Democrats might try to roll the dice again as an election ploy during next terms midterms. They may very well think that this ploy paid off for them electorally but if they do pull this again, I think it will backfire on them. Again, this accomplished very little and I do think if they shut down the government again, Americans will turn on them. Blame has been mostly on a "pox on both houses" fashion but if the Democrats do this again next year, I don't think that is how it will work out. 

As for Republicans, I do see this as a moderate win for them. The 2025 elections were not great, but almost none of those elections were ones that they were expected to win regardless. It's absolutely terrible for Republicans in Virginia and New Jersey but nationally, the infighting the Democrats are seeing now is probably worth the damage done. If the Republicans act smart and focus on the economy, which the Trump White House seems to be now, they could be set. But if they go back to arguing about Nick Fuentes, of all people, it might end up a wash. 

President Trump floats giving Americans a $2000 Tariff rebate check.

 

President Donald Trump. NBC News/Bloomberg/Getty.

President Donald Trump has proposed giving Americans a $2000 tariff rebate check. NBC News. Trump said on Truth Social that he wanted Americans to get the checks, but would exclude the wealthy. The statement appears to indicate the plan is in the extreme early stages as even his Treasury Secretary was in the dark about what the plan would be. Complicating things is the fact that the government is still shut down and no negotiations over the payments will occur until the government reopens. This is not the first time Trump has asked for these payments and a bill that would have provided $600 checks has lingered in the Senate. 

My Comment:

It seems the message that the Republicans got after the 2025 elections is "it's the economy stupid". This seems like an obvious bone to throw to the American people who are still very unhappy with the state of the economy. A large stimulus check from tariff revenue might change some peoples minds. 

Tariffs would indeed cover the costs if the wealth restrictions are similar to the previous stimulus checks provided in the wake of the pandemic. Tariff revenue has been about $200 billion a year, if projections stay accurate, and that could presumably pay for these checks, though it would obviously use most of that profit from both this year and next year. It's absolutely doable. 

Inflation would be a slight concern in this scenario though. It won't be like previous checks, which were paid for by printing billions of dollars. Instead, we would be using money we already have. The problem is that people would probably spend this money on goods and services, which would obviously lead to inflation. Not much inflation, but folks might not be so happy to get the checks if everything they wanted to buy was getting more expensive. Still, it's not going to result in the runaway inflation that we saw due to previous spending as this time, things would be paid for. 

The main problem is how do you get this into place. The Democrats have currently shut down the government pretty much out of spite (though there are early reports that they will end the shutdown this week), so I don't see them going along with this without concessions on what they want. This is pretty irrelevant though as I am assuming this would go through the reconciliation process, which doesn't need any Democratic support in either chamber given Republican control over both houses. 

The bigger problem is the existence of fiscal hawks in the Senate. Senators like Rand Paul and Mike Lee could blow up the whole thing because they want tariff revenue to go to paying down government debt. They have an argument too as sooner or later we have to deal with the debt and it would be wise for at least some of the tariff money to go to that. 

My guess is that there is a decent chance that some form of checks are cut in a deal passed with those Republicans but it's likely not going to be $2000. Something like the $600 checks already proposed in the Senate, or perhaps as high as $1000, is a lot more likely than the full $2000. It's no sure thing, obviously, but I think it's probably close to 50/50 that checks are cut. It's also possible that some kind of deal with a few Democrats could neuter these fiscal hawks in the Senate, but that seems a lot less likely.

What impact would any checks have? I am guessing mostly positive. These checks are popular even if they risk inflation for pretty obvious reasons. There is something very appealing about the "little guy" getting something back from the government and folks would likely use this money to stimulate economic growth. If folks are smart they will use the money to pay down debt but I am guessing most people will spend it on nonsense, which, to be fair, I probably will too. 

Politically it's a winner too. There are folks that voted for Republicans solely for these kinds of handouts and I can't blame them. And it's further evidence that the Republicans "get it" when it comes to economic issues. That's been a concern for the past few months as Trump has had a major focus on foreign policy and immigration instead of the economy. A major fiscal refocus could help the Republicans a great deal in the midterms. 

Median age of 1st time homebuyer in the United States is now 40

 

Stock photo of a couple buying a home. New York Post. 

The median age of a 1st time homebuyer in the United States is now 40 years old. New York Post. The age has increased dramatically since 2020 as it was 33 back then. It was 38 in 2024. First time home buyers makes up only 21% of the market, the lowest since the data has been tracked in 1981. 24% of those home buyers do not have kids and 21% said childcare costs were a factor in what they could afford. Median age of all buyers is 59 and the median age of repeat buyers is 62, both of which are records. The only good news is that interest rates have decreased with 30 year mortgages median being 6.17%. Prices are extremely high due to high demand, low supply and a lack of new starter homes. A general lack of funds and high down payments are also limiting things. 

My Comment:

The repercussions of the 2020 pandemic and the Biden administrations economic and immigration policies continue. Home ownership now appears to be beyond most people in their younger years and the days of young families being able to buy homes as they start their families is long gone. This is, in short, a huge problem, and one that needs to be dealt with. 

I am, of course, directly affected by this issue. I'm around 40 and I absolutely would like to buy a home, but the home prices in my area are out of my range. I have enough savings built up that I could afford a home at the lower end of the range, but those homes almost exclusively are either tear downs, requiring a lot of money I don't have to get them up to snuff, or are mutli-family homes, and I have zero desire to be a landlord. 

And I'm a lot better off than a lot of people! I have a large amount of money saved up, my region of the country isn't that expensive and I have no debt or children to worry about. I don't know how the folks that have kids, car payments or student loans to deal with can ever hope to buy a home in most parts of the country. Sure, there are cheap places in the country still, but they are cheap for a reason, there are no jobs there, or they are crime ridden hell-holes. 

So why are things so bad? Much of it has to do with immigration, legal or otherwise. Joe Biden let in an absurd number of people during his term. Though it's hard to quantify the number of illegal immigrants for obvious reasons, he let in 5 million legal immigrants. Estimates are around 14 million people came illegally as well. In a country of 340 million people, letting in roughly 20 million people is obviously going to drive property values sky high. 

That's not the only problem of course. Another major problem is the fact that nobody is building the right kind of housing. In my area at least, nobody is building starter homes, the kinds with one or two bedrooms and a bath or bath and half. These are the kinds of homes that new buyers can almost afford in this environment.

These homes aren't getting built. They don't have the profit margin of the "mcmansions" that are getting built. These homes cost between $700,000 to $1 million and only the very wealthy can afford them. This isn't all downside, as the people that buy these houses free up other homes for other buyers, but it's like three or four steps removed from the folks that are in the market for starter homes. 

Personal finances are a problem too. Most folks aren't putting away money like I am, and even if they are, the inflation under Biden is still having major effects. Everything got more expensive under him but we didn't see the wage growth needed to make up for it. The bad financial decisions folks are making with debt isn't helping things either. 

From a wider political view, this does represent a major problem for President Trump and the Republicans. Though they were largely not responsible for these issues (though Republicans deserve some of the blame for inflation as they went along with the inflation increasing giveaways that Biden put into place), they also are in power, and folks in power get blamed for things that happen regardless of who is to blame. 

There is some evidence that things are getting better. Obviously, interest rates have dropped slightly and Trump has managed, through deportations and self deportations, to reduce the illegal immigrant population by 2 million people. This has lead to a slight decrease in demand and I have seen it in home prices. This is a thing that should continue to help as more and more folks get deported. 

Of course having the prices go down $10k isn't much relief when the median home price is more than $400,000. And if you are in a high price area it's basically nothing. This will improve with time but folks want results now and if things aren't better by a year from now, things might get rough in the 2026 midterms. 

Finally, I do think this is yet another example of major milestones being delayed or inaccessible. Folks are having trouble getting jobs, getting married and getting homes and it's never been tougher to be a young person, outside of obvious situations like war or famine. I don't really have a solution to any of this, except avoiding voting for the folks that have made things like this in the first place. 

Ukraine again refuses to withdraw from an encircled city again, as Zelensky visits the front lines.

 

Destroyed buildings in Pokrovsk. BBC/Ukrainian military photo. 

Ukraine is again facing destruction in an encircled city as Zelensky visits the front lines. BBC. Zelensky visited the area of Pokrovsk, where Russia has besieged the city and the neighboring city of Myrnohrad. Zelensky and his generals say that troops caught in the Pokrovsk encirclement are not actually encircled. Russia's control of the airspace has made reinforcement and resupply difficult, possibly impossible. Pokrovsk was a major logistic hub and a fortress city for Ukraine. 

My Comment:

Ukraine has fallen for the same trap they have fallen into again and again, not leaving a city when they are getting surrounded. This makes an actual evacuation very unlikely without heavy casualties. Pokrovsk is largely captured and Russia now has fire control over the pathways out of the city. Unless Ukraine gets some favorable weather or some kind of miracle I am guessing that the 5,000 to 10,000 troops that are still in this pocket are going to be in serious trouble. 

I understand that at one point Pokrovsk was a major logistic hub and "fortress" city for Ukraine but at some point enough is enough. Ukraine seems to not understand the idea that trading lives for territory is not always a good idea, but it's a terrible one when you are absolutely running out of lives but have all the territory in the world. 

Instead, they are doubling down. By now, almost everyone has seen the assault that Ukraine launched with a small special forces team in a rare helicopter assault. The small team was supposed to open a corridor and draw forces away from the cauldron, but instead they were apparently wiped out with drones fairly quickly.  

This is the kind of warfare that we are seeing in Ukraine right now. We mostly aren't seeing massed armored assaults on either side due to the fact that drones have changed the game. On both sides when armor is assembled, it gets spotted and then attacked by drones. Instead, Russia is attacking in small groups, or even individuals and combat is man-to-man, while many of the casualties are being inflicted by drones. Indeed, Russia released footage of those Ukrainian special forces getting killed or wounded by FPV drones. 

With Russia now having direct control of many of the routes out of Porkrovsk and Myrnohrad, and indirect control over the secondary routes, this kind of drone (and artillery) attrition is likely to continue. Indeed, from what I understand Ukraine isn't really resupplying these troops via the ground anymore, they are doing so with their own drones. 

Ukraine is trying to launch minor attacks of their own and have had some success, but it isn't doing what they want. Russia isn't going to move troops out of Pokrovsk unless there was some kind of real collapse, and I can't see that happening at this point in the war. I really don't think there is anything that Ukraine can do that can reverse the progress that Russia is seeing in the city. 

Trump administration will pay 50% of SNAP benefits as government shutdown continues.

 

A worker sorting fruit in a food bank in Massachusetts. Reuters.

The Trump administration will pay 50% of SNAP food benefits as the government shutdown continues. Reuters. After a federal court ruled that the Administration had to tap into emergency funds, they announced that there would be partial funding. There might be major delays in some states due to needing to update the system to pay out partial payments. The $5.25 billion contingency fund would not be enough to fund full benefits. Separately, Trump was able to secure $450 million in tariff funds for the WIC program that provides meals for women, infants and children, fully for three weeks. Some states have already said that they would raise their own funds to pay out the rest of the benefits. 

My Comment:

I've avoided talking about the government shutdown until this point as, outside of a few government jobs, it had little effect. Well, this is the first actual major effect of the government shutdown and it's one that will actually have an impact. 

But it wasn't as bad as it could be. Instead of having zero funds for SNAP, they will have 50%. This is not ideal but it's a lot better than nothing. Fully funding WIC for three weeks is a major win as well. It seems like the worst effects of shutting down SNAP will be avoided. Trump might get some small credit for this, or at the least, get less of the blame. 

Of course, I don't think that SNAP is that good in the first place. I am guessing the majority of people that are getting benefits are capable of work and absolutely should be working instead of taking government benefits. I don't have a problem with helping people that need it, like folks that able to work, are having a tough temporary issue, or simply have a ton of kids and need the help. But there are far too many people on SNAP that really don't deserve it. 

I do think that the Democrats deserve much of the blame here. Shutting down the government was always a baffling decision to me. Not only did they end up cutting funds to the very social programs they claim to support, they did it for healthcare for illegal aliens and insurance subsidies for folks that are already rich. And they did it after they lost an election in historic faction. 

I generally think this a cynical ploy on their part. They don't care how badly this could play for them if they do get the blame they deserve. Instead I think this has everything to do with the elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Both states were in play for Republicans and this is all about trying to blunt that momentum. It seems likely that Virginia is going to go to the Democrats now while New Jersey is a toss-up.

This isn't about helping the voters, it's about appeasing the activist base who are enraged that the Democrats don't seem to do anything. Given that the Republicans control the levers of power in the country, they had little option but to shut down the government. At least they can say that they are "doing something" for their activist base, even if what they are doing is really, really dumb. 

I do think that means that the government shutdown will likely die a quick death once the election is over, regardless of the results. They will drop their more insane demands and may instead demand some kind of essentially meaningless concession so, again, they can look like they are doing something. Will the Republicans play ball? I am guessing. They are, unfairly, getting some of the blame for the shutdown, mostly because they are the party in power. Either way, I'd be shocked if by the end of the week, next week at most, that this shutdown is still going down.