Marc Fogel, an American citizen, released by Russia; is it the start of normalization of relations?

 

Marc Fogel after his release. BBC.

Marc Fogel, an American citizen convicted of drug crimes, has been released by Russia in a diplomatic breakthrough. BBC. Fogel had been arrested for brining a small amount of Marijuana into the country and received a 14 year sentence. The marijuana had been prescribed to him by a doctor. Fogel was not described as being wrongfully imprisoned until 2024 despite pressure from his family. WNBA star Britney Griner, who was arrested for an extremely similar crime, was traded for notorious arms dealer Victor Bout, but Fogle was not included in that deal, or a prisoner exchange by Biden for three other Americans last year. Fogel was released while Steve Witkoff, President Trump's envoy for the Middle East, was in the country. Witkoff is the highest ranking American to visit Russia since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out. It is unclear if America offered anything in return for Fogel's release. 

My Comment:

I've got mixed feeling on this one. I have very little sympathy for folks that don't follow the laws of the countries they are visiting. Both Britney Griner and Marc Fogel faced extremely harsh sentences for bringing drugs into Russia, but both of them should have known a lot better. 

That being said, they were punished very harshly. If they had been arrested in America for possession of the small amounts of weed they had on them, I doubt either of them would have been imprisoned. Indeed, had they been Russians themselves they could have still been imprisoned but it sure looks like it would have been a shorter sentence. 9 years for Griner and 14 for Fogel is pretty ridiculous. 

Still, this is an easy win for the Trump administration and one for Russia too. Trump promised to get Fogel out and it's another feather in his cap. We don't know if he paid any kind of price for it, but presumably no arms dealers were released in exchange. That makes Trump look pretty good and it makes Joe Biden look horrible. All Biden had to do to get Fogel released is talk to Russia and he just wouldn't do that. And he could have easily included him with the other groups of prisoners that were exchanged. 

What is of real interest is the fact that I don't think Russia would do this if tensions were going to get higher. Releasing a prisoner, apparently at no cost, is a gesture of good faith and one that shows that Russia probably wants to get along with Trump more than Biden. Russia absolutely hated Biden and for good reason. Biden's the reason why the Ukraine war started in the first place and it's also why it has gone on for so long even though it's pretty clear the matter is settled. 

It also shows that there has been some high level diplomacy between Russia and the United States. The elephant in the room since Trump won the election has been what on earth would he do on Ukraine? There is pretty much nothing he can do to end the war, Biden escalated to the point that there isn't much that Trump could do, other than raising fuel prices which will actually help, not hurt Russia. 

I think this is a sign that Trump is willing to cut a deal with Russia. I don't think he can actually end the war but he might be able to trade Ukraine to Russia for victories in other areas, like the Gaza mess. The writing is on the wall for Ukraine and I am guessing that the plan is for DOGE to audit the Ukraine aid and when the billions of dollars of graft and waste is found, Ukraine will be cut off. Ukraine will probably lose the war before the end of the year anyways, so it's not like there is a huge cost here. 

If so, that's a very good thing. I voted for Trump in 2016 because I wanted better relations with Russia, not the insane war that Hillary Clinton was planning and Biden finally put into place during his term. I have never understood why Russia was treated as the #1 adversary when it was so obvious that China absolutely is and my hope is that we will be able to at least cool things down a bit... 

DOJ dismisses charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams

 

New York Mayor Eric Adams. Fox News.

The Department of Justice has dismissed charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams. Fox News. Adams was charged with several crimes based on foreign influence, including bribery, campaign donations from foreign government officials, wire fraud and conspiracy. The case was not dismissed due to the evidence in the case and was dismissed without prejudice. The reason the case was dismissed was for the appearance of prejudice by the Biden Administration due to they Mayor's criticism of illegal immigration. Adams was charged with the crimes shortly after the statements criticizing Biden's immigration policies. There was also concern that the charges would influence the 2025 New York mayoral race which Adams is running in and the Trump administration's effort to enforce immigration. 

My Comment:

I'm of two minds of this. I am convinced that Eric Adams is probably guilty of the crimes he is charged with. There is a real chance that he did accept bribes from the government of Turkey. He probably should face a trial based on the evidence. 

But I also feel like this is a pretty obvious "Bill Cosby" situation. Cosby was guilty as sin of sexual assault but the prosecutors in his case dropped an agreement they had with Cosby and a judge ruled that was a violation of his rights. In that case it was the right thing to let him go, despite his obvious guilt, because the prosecutors behavior was egregious. 

It seems like the same thing happened here. Selective prosecution is not something that should be tolerated. The timing of the case certainly made it seem like Joe Biden and his administration was only charging Adams because he spoke out about illegal immigration. I have very little doubt that these charges would not have been filed if Adams hadn't made the comments about illegal immigration that he did. 

They also have a point that this prosecution also appears to be an attempt to derail Adams and his election effort in 2025. Though Adams is himself a Democrat, the party is still angry with him for perceived support of Donald Trump. Adams is also a fairly centrist Democrat by the standards of the party and isn't really "woke" either. Convicting him of bribery charges would be a way to ensure that he wasn't going to win the 2025 election. 

I do think that the Trump administration did the right thing here but I do have to say that I do think that it's unfortunate that the case got destroyed by the Biden Administration. If Adams really is guilty, it's not great that he won't face any punishment for them. But as I said during the Bill Cosby case, it's better to let a guilty man go free in this kind of situation than to violate their rights. 

Trump approval remains high as the President gets high marks after three weeks in office.

 

Trump's approval rating. CBS News/YouGov.

Donald Trump's approval rating remains high after his third week in office. CBS News. Trump's approval rating is at 53% approve and 47% disapprove, which is much better than Joe Biden when he left office. Trump gets high marks for his immigration plans, though a majority say that large camps aren't needed before deportation. Trump is also described as effective, focused, energetic and tough by the majority of voters. Trump gets mixed marks on the Israel-Gaza conflict. 54% agree with what he is doing with Israel but people are much more skeptical of the idea of the United States taking over Gaza, with only 13% approval, though 40% say they are not sure. Trump's one area of concern is that 66% say he should be doing more do reduce prices, as Trump road a wave of discontent over inflation to the White House. 

My Comment:

Trump has pretty good approval numbers right now and it shows that folks aren't abandoning him. Keep in mind that CBS/YouGov has been biased against Trump for his entire political career. I am guessing the actual approval rating is even higher. 

It's also not surprising that Trump is getting good ratings on immigration. The 2024 election was partially about immigration and folks are so happy that Trump is actually trying to do something about the huge number of illegal immigrants in America. Though the numbers of deportations aren't super high, it's just a huge difference that we have a president that made stopping illegal immigration a priority. I think the lower numbers for holding immigrants in large camps is mostly because folks don't want to wait that long for folks to get deported. 

Some of this is due to the massive unpopularity of Joe Biden. Biden was none of the things that Trump was described as, he was senile and totally ineffective while Trump is at least trying to do things. And he has had some major accomplishments. Trump is at least attempting to keep his campaign promises. 

As for the Gaza-Israel war, Trump is seen as doing well. Much of this is because he was able to effectively end the war before he even took office, which was a huge accomplishment. Folks are a lot more skeptical of his effort to take over Gaza. Nobody seems to know how that would work though I agree that it's probably just an effort to make folks in the Middle East take responsibility for rebuilding Gaza. 

Trump's main problem is the economy. Folks want lower prices and so far things haven't really changed that much. Some of this is due to it being much harder to do things on the economy than anything else. You can't really flip a switch and fix the economy. And Biden did a lot of things that would damage the economy that haven't really stopped affecting it. The price of eggs is a good example, Biden had millions of chickens killed for bird flu concerns, and it's not like that's a problem that can be fixed in three weeks. I think that tariffs will eventually help the economy but it's going to be something that will take awhile to take effect. The real question is if it will happen before the 2026 midterms or after and it could be what defines his 2nd term. 

As for me I am mostly happy with what Trump has done. He's accomplished more then I have thought. And I'm surprises that Trump's victories on the culture war front, like the bans on trans surgery on children, weren't covered. But it hasn't all been good, his order tonight to end the production of the penny has to be the worst thing he has ever done by far. Everything in the country just got more expensive, as you know everyone is going to round up, and not down. Still, other than that madness, I'm extremely happy with everything else he has done. 

The House wants to ban Chinese AI program DeepSeek from government devices...

 

File photo of the DeepSeek. AP.

The House wants to ban Chinese AI program DeepSeek from government computers and may move to ban it entirely from the United States. AP. DeepSeek took the tech world by storm by being as effective as American AI programs but with much cheaper costs. However, major security concerns exist. The program can send login information to a company that has been banned from operating on US soil. The ban would be similar to the one currently in use for TikTok, which is banned from government devices. Another bill has been introduced that would ban all AI that comes from China. 

My Comment:

It's not surprising that DeepSeek would have the ability to steal login information. The whole thing seems like a major scam by China in order to use AI against the rest of the world. Banning this technology from government devices is a major no-brainer. DeepSeek appears to be slightly better than other chat based AI but the security threat obviously isn't worth it. 

Some will say that this is just the United States not wanting to compete with DeepSeek, which appears to offer a superior product. I am sure that is part of it as tech stocks took a massive hit after DeepSeek was released. But just because that is true does not mean that DeepSeek should be used on government devices. 

I also have questions about how China was even able to develop this program. I think they are obviously smart enough (and willing to steal) to pull it off, but they do not have the production ability to get the chips needed to run them. You need high end, professional GPU's to run these kinds of programs and supposedly China does not have access to those chips. They may have made their own but it's more likely that they were able to obtain them from Taiwan somehow. 

I don't really know why AI programs like this would be allowed on government devices in the first place. AI chat programs are just toys and don't seem to do all that much useful other than function as a better search engine than Google. Supposedly chat based AI is supposed to change the world but I also don't know why the government would need to use it. 

Besides, there are plenty of US based choices they could use even if the AI was necessary. ChatGPT and Claude are supposedly only slightly worse than DeepSeek and I have found that Grok, Elon Musk's AI program based on the X platform, works fine. That comes with a X subscription and you can also use it to generate stupid pictures like this:

Regardless, I am not sure if a full ban of DeepSeek is necessary. I think if the ability to scan someone's login info is removed than it should be fine for domestic use. I still wouldn't be comfortable having it on government devices, but that's true no matter the program, I don't think Facebook, Instagram or X should be on government devices either, unless it's for official accounts. Either way, if DeepSeek cleans their act up then it would be fine to allow them for domestic use. If they don't then a full ban might be necessary. 

   

Politico and other news outlets received millions of dollars from government subscriptions.

 

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt before the announcement. New York Post/Getty.

Politico and other news outlets received millions of dollars from government subscriptions. New York Post. Politico, a news outlet owned by German Alex Springer, received 8.4 million for subscriptions and contracts. Those have now been canceled by DOGE. Politico is best known for their regular news outlet but they also have many trade and policy newsletters about health care, energy and other topics. 

Politico was not the only news outlet receiving these kinds of contracts and subscriptions. The Wrap. Two major wire services, AP and Reuters, received $620,000 and $3.1 million respectively. The New York Times had also received more than $375,000. 

My Comment:

This is a very good thing for a couple of reasons. The most obvious is that this was a colossal waste of money. From what I understand these subscriptions were for trade magazines and newsletters. Some of those might have had some use for a few federal workers but the cost they were paying was absurd. Some of these Politico subscriptions were worth six figures! That's an absurd waste of taxpayer money. I am sure that the information contained in these news letters are publicly available. 

And that's just the explanation that the media is using for why these subscriptions were being used. It's very possible that they weren't actually being used by anyone. If all these things are is trade letters, what do you think the chances are that the government employees that had these subscriptions never even read them? In that case it's an even bigger waste of money, especially for what the government was paying for them. 

The other major benefit is that this sure looks like graft. It at least has the appearance of doing so. Some of this money was from USAID and other government agencies that could have used these subscriptions as a way to ensure that Politico itself gave good coverage to their efforts. Given how critical Politico is of both the Trump administration and right wing politics in general this could mean that their coverage of those things are not actually organic. They could be paid off. 

Are we certain that is what is happening? I believe it. I have very little doubt that the government and news outlets were coordinating with each other to both prevent Donald Trump from returning to office, among other things. Can we prove that in court? Probably not. But if it is the case I would like to see these folks face justice because I doubt that is legal. This would essentially be a bribe. 

Regardless, the most important thing is that these money is no longer going to Politico and other news outlets. This is going to hurt their bottom line but that's a small price to pay if it means less money is being wasted by the taxpayers. I doubt there was any real legitimate reason why these subscriptions and contracts existed and that's all money that could be spent elsewhere.   

President Trump issues a threat against Iran: If they attempt to take him out he has left orders for the USA to retaliate with military force.

 

Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he signs executive orders. AP. 

President Trump issued a major threat against Iran saying that he has left orders to have Iran "obliterated" if they successfully assassinate him. AP. Trump was signing an executive order to pressure Iran to give up any nuclear weapons program when he made the comments. Though he said that he wished for peace in the Middle East he acknowledged the threat. During the campaign Trump faced two assassination attempts, neither of which was apparently connected to Iran. However, the Justice Department said they had disrupted an Iranian plot against Donald Trump. If a plot against Trump would succeed, JD Vance would become President and it is unclear if he would follow Trump's orders or not. Iran has made threats against Trump ever since he ordered the bombing of Quds Force General Qasem Soleimani.

My Comment:

I have discussed this issue before. Back then I said that had Iran murdered candidate Trump then I didn't see a way for Joe Biden to avoid a war with Iran. Obviously, now that Trump is back in office, any attempt on his life, successful or not, would be an act of war and would obviously be a valid casus belli for a major war against Iran. 

If such an attempt on the President's life were to succeed, I am sure that JD Vance would follow Trump's orders. At that point it would have little to do with Trump himself, though even his critics would support a conflict. Not retaliating with force would show extreme weakness and is pretty much unimaginable. Like I said, a foreign government killing a President would be an act of war and would justify a military retaliation. 

The real question is what that retaliation would be? Would it be a targeted attack against the people that ordered the attack? Would it be a full scale war, or even an invasion? Or could it be the ultimate retaliation, nuclear warfare? I think the first two options are the most likely, a full invasion or a nuclear war would be very unlikely. The attack would most likely be proportionate. 

Of course I have seen very little evidence that Iran is capable of actually getting to Donald Trump. Even if you ignore the amount of luck that the man has, it honestly borders on divine protection if you believe in that kind of thing, Trump has the best security in the world right now. I struggle to think of a way they could get to him now that security has been tightened up dramatically. 

And Iran? They are absolutely on the back foot right now. They gambled big on the Israel-Gaza war and they lost big. Their only success was the Yemen theater, in every other theater they lost. Gaza gave up, Hezbollah was mostly destroyed and their proxy armies in Syria no longer have any protection from the Turkish backed new government. In short, I don't know if they can actually do all that much. 

But the fear is that they have been so humiliated they will want to try and take Trump out regardless. That would be an act of insanity, especially after this warning, but would they care? I would think that they wouldn't want to take the risk, but that assumes rational actors. Is the leadership of Iran rational? Keep in mind that Trump just ordered "maximum pressure" on Iran, it's possible that it will be effective enough to drive them to an insane action... 

The only problem I can see with Trump's order here is the possibility that Iran gets blamed for any attempt on Trump's life even if they aren't responsible. I would hope that if the unthinkable does happen we would at least wait for proof that Iran was the one that did it. Trump, unfortunately, has many enemies and Iran probably isn't even in the top five, though they would be in the top ten. But the last thing we need is an unnecessary war if Iran isn't actually responsible. 

Trump cuts a deal with Canada and Mexico to delay tariffs for at least 30 days.

 

Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau. Fox News.

Donald Trump has cut a deal with the leadership of Canada and Mexico that will delay tariffs for at least 30 days. Fox News. Both countries made major concessions to Trump to avoid the tariffs, which would have been at 25% for general goods and 10% for energy related items for Canada. Canadian Prime Minster Justin Trudeau gave Trump a major commitment to secure the northern US border and said he would appoint a czar to deal with the fentanyl problem. Trudeau also said he would deploy new helicopters, technology and personnel and would coordinate with the United States to deal with illegal immigration and drug smuggling. Mexico made similar commitments to deploy troops to border, 10,000 troops, and made other concessions. 

My Comment:

As expected Trump cut a deal. Why folks are surprised that he was able to pull on off when he literally wrote a book about making a deal (well, I am sure it was ghost written) is beyond me. This is what Trump is known for and the only way it wouldn't have happened is if the leadership of Mexico and/or Canada were especially stubborn. 

Of course it's not like this was anything new, Trump already had the exact same thing happen with Columbia. Columbia got annoyed with how Trump was sending them deported illegals and Trump decided to drop the hammer with threats of major tariffs. Columbia backed down so fast that the blog post I wrote about it was only valid for about five minutes before news broke. 

Trump knows that tariffs are an extremely potent weapon to use. Had a deal not been cut, Canada and Mexico would have been heading to a recession at best. They are both hugely dependent on the United States for trade while America isn't anywhere near as vulnerable. They would have been in trouble long before it started to negatively affect America. It won't work against all countries, tariffs would obviously be useless against Russia due to sanctions, but it should work well against trading partners. 

I do kind of wish that Canada had not cut a deal. I greatly dislike Justin Trudeau and I would love to see him squirm. He's the worst leader in this hemisphere and it's not close. It galls me that he's taking a victory lap before he leaves office. I'd rather have Trump kept these tariffs until Trudeau was replaced, but it's probably better for both sides that a deal is made. 

I also wonder if Trump will get further concessions. This deal is only for 30 days and the tariffs could, in theory, come into play after that. The wins here were pretty big though so I think Trump might settle with what he has gotten. Plus it's good to show that he is willing to let bygones be bygones if he gets what he wants. It's smart. 

I also appreciate that this was all over drug smuggling and illegal immigration. Something has to be done about the fentanyl problem and if any progress is to be made there there has to be major cooperation with both Mexico and Canada. Canada isn't a huge source of the drug but if Mexico cleans up their act they would be the obvious next choice. Plus, illegal immigrants are coming in over all borders and I think it's long overdue that we strengthen our controls on the northern one. 

  

Protesters shut down Los Angeles highway in response to illegal immigration deportations.

 

Protesters shut down the 101 freeway. LA Times.

Protesters shut down Highway 101 in Los Angeles in response to recent deportations of illegal immigrants. LA Times. The protesters waved Mexican and El Salvador flags. The protest was peaceful at first but a man doing "donuts" near city hall. The protest was seemingly inspired by that and many of them walked onto the highway and shut it down. Police did not respond to this in any way, despite the closure of the highway and multiple drivers doing burnouts in the streets. 

My Comment:

First a note about the status of the blog. One of my recent posts about illegal immigration was removed by blogger for reasons unknown. They cited "hate speech" which is bizarre since the post didn't have anything even close to that and I am unsure what the issue was. It was the first time any of my posts here have been moderated and I have had this blog for a decade now. Either way, I'm not going to stop posting about illegal immigration and if that means my blog gets deleted, well, at least I still have X, which I have considered moving too anyways. Especially when I have no idea what exactly set them off this time, how could I even consider censoring myself when I don't even know what the issue was? I certainly didn't knowingly post anything against the TOS, so the whole situation is confusing. 

Back on topic though, I don't think these people understand the optics here. If their idea was to convince folks that they were an asset I don't see how blocking a busy highway accomplishes that. Doing so while flying the flag of their home country but not the country that they are living in is even worse. The obvious reaction is that if they like Mexico and El Salvador so much, why don't they go back? 

I have always said that blocking highway traffic is about the most counterproductive style of "protest" I have ever seen. You aren't peaceful when you block a highway, you are injuring people who have done nothing to you and you could even be putting lives at risk. A few people have been killed, either because the protesters got hit by cars or because these kinds of protests block even emergency vehicles. 

And I can't tell you how visceral my reaction is to seeing this kind of protest. It would be one thing if they were protesting the folks that were actually making these decisions, like the trucker protests did in Canada, but they aren't. They are just targeting folks trying to get to and from work, or even workers themselves if you count all the truckers, rideshare and other folks that are in a vehicle for their jobs. 

Another question is why the Los Angeles police just sat there and did nothing. Blocking highways is disorderly conduct at best and certainly justifies breaking up the part of the protests that were blocking the freeway. But the cops did nothing. I guess I shouldn't expect much from the LAPD but still, it's disappointing. 

Either way, I wouldn't be upset if these folks got moved to the front of the deportation line. So far the Trump administration has mostly focused on illegal immigrants that have been convicted or charged with crimes, but the fact that these folks weren't charged shouldn't deter them. These folks are doing a lot more than working a job an American could take or raising the price of rent, they are actively making things worse for everyone that happens to be in LA. 

Finally, I would like to say that we shouldn't just assume that everyone is on board with this. There are a lot of Mexican and Hispanic Americans that agree with Trump's deportation policies. Most of them are either 2nd or 3rd generation descendants of immigrants and legal immigrants themselves. Indeed, one of the biggest "Trump guys" I know is of Mexican descent. It's another reason why I am angry these folks were flying those flags, they don't speak for everyone who came from or lives in that country... 

Ban on 18 to 20 year old adults buying handguns overturned in 5th Circuit Court ruling in a major victory for gun rights.

 

Handguns at the NRA meeting in Dallas Texas. Reuters. 

A ban that stopped adults under the age of 21 from buying handguns has been ruled unconstitutional in the 5th Circuit Court. Reuters. The court had previously upheld the ban, but after NYSRPA v Bruen, the court followed the test set forth in that ruling and found that there was no historical case for a ban on adults owning handguns. The federal ban on handguns was included in a 1968 crime bill. The court found that the 2nd Amendment does include adults between the age of 18 to 20. 

My Comment:

Just a couple of days ago I criticized Donald Trump's ban on puberty blockers and surgery for transgender children because it bafflingly included 18 year old adults in the order. Though I supported the ban, I rejected the inclusion of 18 year old adults because they are indeed adults. As adults they should have the same rights to ruin their bodies as older adults, unless there is a total ban on these "treatments". 

I would support the same logic here. I always hated the idea that an 18 year old is old enough to carry a weapon in a war they were drafted into but aren't old enough to buy a handgun to defend their own home or drink a beer when they get home from the war. That's not the logic that was used in this case but it does have the same effect and one of the major limitations on under 21 adults is now gone. 

At least in the 5th Circuit of course. This ruling only covers that Circuit, which is made up of Texas, Mississippi and Louisiana. In those states younger adults are now able to buy handguns. But in the rest of the country? The ban is still in effect. 

So will the rest of the country follow suit? I think it's possible. Either the other courts will agree with this ruling and the law will be largely overturned or the case will go to the Supreme Court and will likely reach the same conclusion as the 5th Circuit Court. That means that this ban on younger adults buying handguns is pretty much dead. 

Either way this shows how important NYSRPA v Bruen case was. We absolutely would not have had this ruling had the case never existed. Indeed, the same court reached the opposite ruling in 2012. But the Bruen test showed that the rule was unconstitutional and now it is gone for at least some of the folks in this country. 

It does seem like gun rights is a solved issue in America today. NYSRPA v Bruen is law of the land and the Democrats are the only folks that really support gun control laws. And they are absolutely on the backfoot right now. For the time being at least, I doubt we will see any national gun laws that infringe on the 2nd amendment. The states are another thing but even they are facing huge numbers of lawsuits to overturn those laws...    

Australia disrupts a terrorism plot targeting Jewish citizens.

 

New South Wales Police Deputy Commissioner David Hudson AP.

Police in Australia have disrupted a terrorism plot targeting Jewish civilians in the country. AP. Australia has suffered a wave of antisemitic attacks since the start of the October 7th war between Gaza and Israel, including large amounts of graffiti and some cases of arsons. One person has been injured in the arson attacks. This current plot involved a large amount of the explosive Powergel, a mining explosive. A list of targets was found along with the explosives and included a Jewish school. 10 arrests have been made in the case. The police believe that the suspects are "criminals for hire" and are working at the behest of a foreign power, though they have not revealed which foreign power they believe is responsible. 

My Comment:

This appears to be a major terror plot. You can make a large explosion with the amount of Powergel 801 that was acquired by this group. It could probably have destroyed or heavily damaged any one of the targets that were found with the explosives. 

Thankfully the group was broken up before they could launch whatever attack they were planning. Police had already made arrests before the explosives were found so the danger was minimal. Still this could have been a major terror attack if the plot hadn't been discovered. 

What surprises me is that this is happening in Australia. I don't think they have a large population of Jewish people in the first place and I can't think of a country that is more distant from the war between Hamas and Israel. In short, it does not seem like an environment where antisemitism would happen naturally. 

What truly makes this story worth covering is the idea that this is an international conspiracy by a foreign actor to promote and possibly carry out these attacks. That is, to be clear, an act of war and it's a very serious thing for Australia to claim. It's possible they are just lying, I have very little trust in the Australian government to not be evil, but my gut says that it's very possible. 

If I had to guess which government it was I would say it's most likely a Muslim one, with Iran being the biggest suspect. They have been absolutely humiliated lately with their proxy government in Syria falling, Hezbollah and Hamas being humbled and Turkey usurping their role as the leader of more radical Islam in the Middle East. Doing this could be a face saving measure, but one that could risk war with Australia. Still, without more information this is all speculation. 

Of course this is probably why the plot failed. From what the article said, the suspects in this case were just local criminals and they obviously don't have ideological reasons to conduct terror attacks. I am guessing one of the people contracted to carry out these attacks either had a case of guilt and went to authorities or got picked up for something else and cut a deal... It shows why outsourcing your terror attacks is probably a bad idea...

Trump issues executive order that bans chemical and surgical "treatments" for gender transitions for minors.

 

President Donald Trump. Fox News/Truth Social.

President Donald Trump has issued an executive order that bans chemical and surgical treatments for gender transitions for those under the age of 19. Fox News. Trump said in the order that the "treatments" can lead to sterilization and medical complications that can last a lifetime and said many children regret them after they become adults. Surgical treatments, like the removal of breasts, or chemical treatments, like puberty blockers, will no longer be allowed to be used. Trump said that institutions that offer these treatments will be defunded and any laws that enforce bans on these activities will be vigorously enforced. 

The White House full statement can be found here. 

My Comment:

Though I am mostly on board with this, I do have one major criticism of this order. The age. I have never been comfortable with laws that extend the range of what is considered a child past the age of 18. This order bans 18 year olds from doing something that 19 year olds can and I can't abide that. You are either an adult at 18 or not and that means that anything that is legal for a 19 year old or a 21 year old should be legal if you are only 18. Either 18 is an adult or not, and if you can carry a gun in a war than you should be able to drink a beer or buy a handgun when you get home. And though I don't really support gender surgery at any age, if it's legal than 18 year olds should be able to do it. 

But sometimes you have take the bad with the good and the rest of this order is very good. I was never on board on transitioning children and like most people I was horrified by the cases I have seen. The idea that a small child can one day decide that they are the opposite sex and then folks validate that and given them pills that prevent puberty is horrible. And when they grow older they can have their sexual body parts, like their penis or breasts, removed. It was horrifying. I don't care what the doctors or scientists say, this was not a good thing and it should be stopped. 

The efforts to transition children was probably a major reason why folks have turned on the transgender community. Indeed, it's been a reason why I haven't been aggressive in having kids. What's the point if the mother can arbitrarily decide that your son is a girl or your daughter is a boy? And then force them to have pills that prevent puberty and cut off their parts when they get older? And if you object in any way you can lose all access to your children. Seem extreme? Well it happened to Jeff Younger. But at least now his son won't be taking those puberty blockers... 

I think most folks would have adopted a live and let live view towards the transgender community if it wasn't for cases like Younger's. Indeed, I think most folks would at least be willing to humor the more reasonable folks, like Caitlyn (Bruce) Jenner. But once folks figured out that children were going to be major target than the pushback began. And now the question is how far it will go. 

There will likely be major legal battles against this order and I am guessing it will end up in the Supreme Court. Supposedly there is a case from Tennessee that has already heard oral arguments about this very issue. They are expecting a ruling in July. But until then I am expecting major court challenges to this that may put the order on hold. I think that the order will likely survive, but you never know what the court will do. 

I do worry that there could be violence from the transgender community in backlash from this order. That doesn't mean the order wasn't worth doing, but it is something I worry about. There have been quite a few transgender attacks on people for political reasons and this order might set a few of the more radicalized ones off. I would not be surprised if there is another Audrey Hale out there waiting in the wings... 

Columbia starts a trade with with America over deportations of illegal immigrants.

 

Illegal aliens being deported. BBC?US Government photo.

Trump has issued sanctions and other consequences for the country of Columbia after refusing two flights of illegal immigrants deported to their country. BBC. Columbia refused the flights because they were on military planes instead of commercial. In response Trump put into place 25% tariffs on all Columbian goods and has also sanctioned Columbian politicians, revoking their visas. Columbia responded with tariffs of their own while their President, Gustavo Petro, wrote an extremely long rant on X saying he would fight back and somehow seemed to think that Trump would have him killed. America imports coffee and flowers from Columbia but the tariffs would likely mean suppliers would prioritize other countries over Columbia. 

Trump, a mi no me gusta mucho viajar a los EEUU, es un poco aburridor, pero confieso que hay cosas meritorias, me gusta ir a los barrios negros de Washington, allí ví una lucha entera en la capital de los EEUU entre negros y latinos con barricadas, que me pareció una pendejada,…

— Gustavo Petro (@petrogustavo) January 26, 2025

EDIT: Mere moments after finishing this post, news broke on social media that a deal has been made between Trump and Petro. Time will tell if it is legit.  

My Comment:

This is not a fight that Columbia can win. America imports some coffee, flowers and other minor things like bananas, but putting tariffs on them is not really going to affect us at all. But for Columbia? It's going to devastate their economy. We can get our coffee from other countries, they need us way more than we need them.  

Gustavo Petro seems more than a bit deranged. He seems to think that Trump is going to kill him over this, which is insane. That rant he posted on X is one for the ages, it's worth reading the translated version if you are looking for grade A madness. 

This is Trump putting his foot down. This whole thing was over military transport being used, which is a very odd hill for Columbia to die on. Trump, on the other hand, wanted to make an example out of someone for not taking their citizens back and Columbia has apparently decided to fall on that sword.

This is a message to countries like Mexico and Canada who Trump has threatened with similar tariffs. They have been mostly wavering on the issue but now they know for sure that Trump wasn't joking around and that the same thing could happen to them. If it can happen to Columbia then it absolutely can happen to Canada and Mexico. Instead of a trade war it's in their interest to give Trump what he wants in terms of immigration.  

Despite the rhetoric on both sides, I expect some kind of deal to be made. Trump is of course a deal maker and I think despite his unhinged rant on X, Petro isn't so much of a die hard that he would destroy his country over military flights being used for deportations as opposed to commercial flights. Stranger things have happened but I am guessing that a deal is being made. 

As for the deportations themselves it's great to see some of these folks being sent home. Trump is already keeping his campaign promises on immigration and he's targeting the worst of the worst. Most of the folks getting deported now are convicted criminals that are also illegal aliens. These folks should have been deported years ago but Biden protected them. But now that he is gone we have finally removed some of the folks that need to leave. 

Of course it's just a drop in the bucket. Nobody seems to know how many illegal immigrants there are in America, I've heard 11 million to 30 million people. Getting rid of the worst of the worst is a great start but there is still an absurd amount of work to do. If Trump even gets rid of 1/4th of them it will be a huge accomplishment, so I am hoping that he can keep up the pace he has set. 

Major companies are pulling away from DEI policies.

 

File photo of Meta headquarters. AP.

Many major companies are pulling back from, or eliminating entirely, DEI policies. AP. The so called "diversity, equity and inclusion" policies were widely adopted after the 2020 George Floyd riots. DEI policies were designed to prevent discrimination against "marginalized groups" but critics say they were essentially discrimination in a new form. Activists, spurred on by a Supreme Court case that banned Affirmative Action in college admissions, have targeted companies that continue to use DEI policies. Companies that have dropped or scaled back DEI programs include Meta (parent company of Facebook and Instagram), Amazon, Wal-Mart, McDonalds, Ford Motor Company and Lowes. 

My Comment:

It really does seem like the DEI experiment is over. Certainly it seems like the pushback has begun at least and some companies are bending the knee. It's not the end for sure, many companies are still keeping some form of DEI and there are others that are only scaling back, but I still view this as a positive development. 

DEI was never anything but a racial spoils system for certain minorities that came at the expense of other folks, most notably Whites, East Asians, and men of all races. Instead of making colorblind hiring and promotional considerations, DEI made race and gender a forefront to those decisions and it had bad effects. 

It also caused a massive amount of resentment. Nobody wants to hear about how their race is bad and how it's their fault other people don't succeed. And nobody also wants to see someone get a job or promoted because they belong to a group they don't belong to. I really don't think people believe that your race either makes you a villain that isn't redeemable or a angel that can do no wrong. Those ideas are harmful enough on their own, but when you can't get a job because of it or are passed over for promotion? 

It also hurt those minorities as well as now very few people will believe that the folks that benefited from DEI, black women, transgenders and women in general, are actually competent. Many of them aren't of course, but it is bad for the ones that are that the perception is out there. The old color-blind system was so much better because you knew for a fact that anyone from one of these "marginalized groups" who actually made it had earned it by merit and merit alone. 

I do think that part of the reason why DEI is getting pushed back upon is because it simply doesn't work. There is a competency crisis in the United States right now and these programs are a real reason why. If you hire and promote people based on anything other than merit, you are going to get worse results. The fact that this wasn't obvious remains one of the major mysteries of the past few years. Did these big companies do this because they actually thought it would work? Or were they that scared of Democratic activists? 

What is clear is that they aren't afraid of Democratic activists now. I do think they have some genuine fear of the folks on Team Trump, largely because their outrage is organic while Democratic outrage appears to be mostly astroturf. After all, they all remember what happened with Bud Light, which still hasn't recovered from the Dylan Mulvany boycott. 

But I think most of this is simply the CEO's reading the way things are going. Folks have been talking about a vibe shift and I think I feel it too. The Democrats losing in 2024 in the fashion they did was a mandate of heaven shifting moment. Folks are sick of people being judged for anything other than their merit and things do appear to be changing. 

Another massive wildfire has broken out in the LA area. The Hughes Fire has already burned 9000 acres.

 

A view of the fire with Six Flags Magic Mountain in the foreground, CBS LA/Getty. 

Another massive wildfire, the Hughes fire, has broken out near Los Angeles, and has already burned 9000 acres. CBS LA. The fire broke out near Castaic Lake in a rural area north of Los Angeles. The fire started at 10:45 local time and in an hour the fire had grown to 500 acres in size. The fire has increased dramatically since then, growing to 9000 acres and is still growing. Evacuation orders and warnings have been issued to more than 50,000 people that live in the area. The fire could end up threatening many of the small towns around Santa Clarita, including the town of Castaic itself. 

My Comment:

This fire is already comparable to the Eaton and Palisades fire that devastated Los Angeles and is still burning as of this writing. And here are no signs of the fire slowing down anytime soon. The fire is already at 9000 acres while the Palisades burned 24000 while the Eaton fire burned 14,000. But that happened over weeks and this is one day. 

The weather is a major issue. Though the winds aren't as bad as they were during the earlier fires, they are still really bad. This has whipped the fires into a frenzy. The complete lack of rain this year and the heavy rains last year have also left a lot of wood around to burn as well, and that is fueling this fire. Not to mention the non-existent forest management in the state of California. 

The good news is that most of what has burned is wilderness. The area that is burning right now is the Castaic Lake State Recreation area, which is basically unpopulated. It's hiking trails and fishing spots, not exactly the population density we saw in the Pacific Palisades. 

The problem is that the storm is moving to populated areas. The town of Castaic itself appears to be threatened by the firestorm and the fires may have already reached the town. About 20,000 people live in the town and most of them will have to evacuate. Santa Clarita itself could be threatened eventually, as the storm appears to be moving south. That is a much larger city of 200,000 people and the damage that could be done there would be much larger. 

The one thing I haven't seen the media mention is that there are several hydroelectric dams in the area. Though I doubt anything this fire could do could actually damage the dams, it could indeed disrupt power generation in the region. The Foothill Power plant off of Castaic Lake is already in the burn area and both the Castaic Hydroelectric Plant in the north and the tiny Power Plant #2 to the east could eventually be as well, depending on where the fire goes. Should one or more of these plants be damaged or destroyed it would be a major problem for power generation in California. 

I don't know if this fire will be contained. There are a lot of firefighters and assets in the area and the good thing is that unlike the earlier fires, it's mostly the only game in town. The Eaton and Palisades fire are still going but aren't anywhere near the threat they used to be, so most assets should be able to be used in this fire. 

There will be questions on what caused the fire. It's too early to rule anything out but I suspect arson or accident, largely because we know it isn't lightning. There also doesn't seem to be many major powerlines on google maps in the area set on fire. If I had to guess I am guessing it was either a firebug or some kind of accident, like an out of control campfire or a carelessly thrown away cigarette. 

Either way, this is the last thing that California needs right now. They have been devastated by earlier wildfires and California Governor Gavin Newsom has proven himself incapable of dealing with it. And we will probably see more wildfires until we either see some rain or some reduced winds... 

Four injured in a mass stabbing in Israel, suspect is an American permanent resident.

 

The wine bar where the attack happened. BBC/Reuters.

Four people were injured in a mass stabbing attack committed by an American permanent resident. BBC. The attacker was a citizen of Morocco but was a permanent resident of America in Israel on a tourism visa. He was shot and killed by Israeli police. The suspect being in the country is brewing into a large scandal as border and immigration services objected to the man entering the country but the Shin Bet security service approved it. This is the second mass stabbing attempt in Tel Aviv in four days, with an additional incident ending with an armed civilian putting down the attacker after he had stabbed one person. 

My Comment:

This is a fairly minor story but I thought I should cover it because of the implications it has for both the Israeli and United States border control policies. Not only should this attacker have never been in Israel in the first place, he probably should not have been in the United States either. 

It is fairly shocking that the Shin Bet allowed this man into Israel in the first place. The border and immigration service objected but they were overruled. It's unclear from the reports I have read as to why they objected but it's even more unclear what Shin Bet approved him. They did do a check but didn't find anything, which begs the question, why not?

It's possible that the attacker was actually smart and didn't tell anyone what he was about to do. That isn't outside of the realm of possibility, but if he was that smart he'd be in the top 10% of terrorists and if that was the case you would have thought he would have had a better plan that just stabbing people. I am guessing there probably was a paper trail that the Shin Bet just missed. 

It does show how easy it is to pull off a mass stabbing. This guy was there on a tourist visa and was in one of the more secure countries in the world under an active terror threat beyond most countries and he was still able to stab four people before getting killed. Thankfully nobody was killed but it just shows that any idiot can do this. 

It's also notable that the other attack mentioned in the article was put down by an armed civilian. Lots of folks in Israel carry weapons for pretty obvious reasons and that might have been the difference between the two stabbings. Police had pretty good response to the most recent one but nothing is faster than an armed civilian that happens to be there. It's a good argument for concealed weapons. 

As for Israel itself, it just goes to show that things won't really be peaceful there even as the Gaza war (and the Red Sea conflict with the Houthis) winds down. In addition to these mass stabbings, Israel itself launched a major raid into the West Bank, which was largely unaffected by the Gaza war. Peace in the Middle East is still a long ways away. 

Houthis have decided to pull back on the Red Sea campaign, will only target Israeli flagged ships.

 

Ships in the port of Hodeidah, Yemen. Reuters. 

The Houthis of Yemen have decided to pull back on the anti-shipping Red Sea campaign, vowing to only target Israeli flagged ships. Reuters. The Houthis said they were ending "sanctions" against US and UK flagged shipping, but reserved to right to restart attacks if they are attacked themselves. The cease-fire is dependent on the cease fire in the Israel-Hamas war. Israeli ships would still be targeted but that would stop when the cease fire deal is fully implemented. The war in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was notable for the large number of ships attacked while two ships were sunk outright. Shipping companies have not decided to return to the Red Sea and will continue to use the dramatically longer Cape of Good Hope route that circles Africa. The Houthis still hold the crew of a ship they captured, the Galaxy Leader and there are hopes that they will be released soon as well. 

My Comment:

This news is getting lost due to the drama surrounding the inauguration, so I figured I should cover it while everyone else is ably covering those stories. The end of the Red Sea war is in sight and that is a huge deal for everyone who cares about peace. 

The Houthis campaign was reasonably impressive. Though they only sank two ships and captured another they managed to mostly shut down travel in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. They were able to punch above their weight to a dramatic degree and it was the start to the end of the war between Israel and Hamas that ended the war, not military pressure against them from the United States and United Kingdom. 

Our response to the Houthis was less impressive. They managed to shoot down several of our drones and though they weren't able to damage or sink any of our US Navy ships, we also weren't able to stop there attacks despite many rounds of air strikes. We were able to intercept a large number of missiles and stop some raids, but we weren't able to ever stop the attacks. 

I do think that this is an easy success for Donald Trump. He was able to pressure both Hamas and Israel to end the war and this is collateral from that as well. The Houthis decided that the war was no longer necessary and that's a win for his administration. He might not get too much credit for it, given the media and the fact that the story got buried today, but it's still a major win for him. 

Still, I expect it will take some time before the war ends entirely and shipping returns to the Red Sea. Yemen could go back on this announcement at anytime. And the agreement doesn't cover every ship, Israeli ships could be targeted until their war with Hamas is officially over. Nobody wants to take that kind of risk. 

Either way, when the Red Sea opens up it will be a major win for anyone that needs to ship products. America itself won't see much gain, but both Europe and Asia will see this as a major improvement, one that will save millions of dollars in shipping costs. It should help both their economies.  

The final verdict on the Joe Biden presidency

 

Joe Biden. White House Photo.

Unless you have been living under a rock, today is the last day of the Joe Biden presidency. Tomorrow, barring something extraordinary or diabolical, Donald Trump will be sworn in for a 2nd term after one of the biggest political comebacks in American history. But this post isn't about Trump. It's about the guy that he replaced. 

By any standard, Biden has to go down as a major failure of a president. I can't think of a single thing that he did which was good. I can't say that for any other president. Even ones I disliked, like Clinton and Obama, had some good points in their presidencies and at the very least you can say they didn't harm their party that much. But Biden? Absolute failure. 

Biden's worst performance has to be foreign policy. Biden is pretty much directly responsible for a major erosion in America's image as an invincible world leader. It started early with the absolute failure of policy that was the Afghanistan withdrawal. Donald Trump, of course, ordered the withdrawal, but Biden did not abide by the terms of the deal, which allowed the Taliban to launch an early offensive. That offensive probably would have come anyway and the Afghan government was always doomed, but the absolute disaster where Americans were left behind and Afghan civilians were left hanging off of planes taking off probably wouldn't have happened. 

Biden was also responsible for two of the worst wars that the world has seen since the end of World War II. Both Ukraine and the Gaza wars are wars that could have been prevented. Hamas saw that Biden was week and knew that Biden would not be able to do anything about it due to divisions in his party, so they launched October 7th. 

That war appears that it might end but the war in Ukraine that Biden started? That one is still raging and it is so bad that Trump probably won't be able to stop it. At this point if Trump avoids World War III it will be a miracle. The war was also completely unnecessary. Biden didn't need to support Zelensky, the only world leader that might be worse than Biden and he certainly didn't need to cross a Russian red line by trying to get Ukraine into NATO. Hundreds of thousands of people died because Biden just hated Russia that much. 

Biden wasn't any better domestically. I can't think of a thing that he did that helped regular American citizens. And there were more than a few times where he acted like an absolute tyrant. From covid regulations to prosecuting grandmas that walked through the capitol on January 6th, Biden made a mockery of the idea that people have rights. And one of this worst acts was the crusade against his political opponent, Donald Trump. These things absolutely cost him too, folks understood that Biden would take on his political opponents... 

Biden the antifascist looking like a fascist. 

But I think it was the economy where Biden failed the most. Though congress deserves some of the blame for the high inflation, Biden did little to quell it. And his response to criticism on the issue? Gaslighting. The economy was great, anyone who disagrees is spreading misinformation, just look at the stock market! What do you mean you can't afford to live, don't you know this is the best economy in the world? 

And that is probably the most damning thing about Biden. He just couldn't act like he cared. So many folks got so offended by the fact that he just couldn't connect with people when they were suffering. It didn't matter if those folks were the families of dead soldiers or the victims of natural disasters, Biden just didn't care. Obama could do this and so did Clinton, so it's not a Democrat problem. It's a problem with Joe Biden specifically. 

Biden's advanced age was a real problem as well. There is a real question if he was actually running the country for the past four years or if it was his staffers. Mike Johnson the other day said that Biden wasn't even aware that he signed an order banning natural gas exports and you have to wonder was he unable to remember what he was doing or did his staffers mislead him? Either way, it was scary to have a leader that was so clearly compromised and nobody would admit it until his debate collapse last summer. 

I also have to mention the absolute chaos at the border and the fact that Biden brought in millions of people for little reason other than to screw over American workers. Illegal immigration has always been unpopular but at least in the past it was mostly Mexicans. Now, it's folks from all over the world and it's causing massive problems in terms of crime, housing and employment. Out of everything he has done this might be the most unforgivable. 

I find it hard to find anything positive to say about Joe Biden. He was old, creepy, weird and incompetent. But I guess if I had to say something positive, he was at least funny sometimes? He was very easy to mock and if we had a decent and unbiased entertainment industry we could have had a golden age of presidential humor. He was a lot of fun to mock and if there is anything at all I will miss from the past four years it will be the fact that I can't make fun of him anymore. 

As far as historical rankings, I don't think that Biden is the worst. At the end of James Buchanan's presidency, the country was on the verge of civil war and as bad as Biden was, he wasn't that bad, though it was no sure thing at parts of his term. But as for modern presidents after World War II? Biden has to be the worse. Nixon was a good foreign policy president and though Carter had failed at almost everything at least he didn't start any new wars. Biden has very little to show for his four years in office and I am not at all sad to see him go. I sincerely hope that Trump has a lot of success in the next four years and that we can all put the Biden presidency behind us. 

UK Government announces more inquires into grooming gangs after intense pressure from Elon Musk.

 

Elon Musk. AP. 

The UK Government has announced more inquiries into Pakistani grooming gangs after intense pressure from Elon Musk. AP. The announcement includes local inquires as well as a national audit. Musk was able to draw attention to the issue again and has been extremely critical of UK Prime Minster Kier Starmer, who he says did not deal with the offenders when he was England's Chief Prosecutor between 2008 and 2013. The government had previously said there was no need for further investigations, but the government also did not follow the recommendations of the seven year investigation under the former Tory government. 

My Comment:

There is plenty to be critical about Elon Musk, most notably his support for H1B visas, but this is a clear case of Musk doing something incredible with his platform on X. The Pakistani grooming gangs issue was largely dead before Musk resurrected it. And now he has gotten results. 

There are some that would say that bringing up these crimes again is not helpful, but given the scale of these crimes and the racial hatred that fueled them, I would completely disagree. Indeed, I don't think the government of the United Kingdom should be focusing on anything else at all. Having a huge number of young girls being raped, abused and trafficked and the government ignoring it and covering it up should be the biggest scandal in UK history by far. 

Keep in mind what we are talking about. A group of immigrants showed up and immediately starting to groom white girls, specifically because of their race. They didn't target their own girls, only lower class white ones, who they viewed as trash. The government covered this up, in part to deflect against accusations of racism and bigotry against Islam, but mostly because they agreed with the immigrants that these lower class white girls were trash.

This was always more about class than race though. The UK government would have never tollerated this if it had been upper class white girls getting groomed. Maybe not even middle class ones. But the lower classes? They were all trash in the eyes of the government and that allowed them to, if not encourage, at least tolerate the mass rape of a massive number of girls. This wasn't just Pakistani immigrants being horrible, it was the government being horrible as well. And those folks need to be punished along with the rapists. 

And I don't think the punishment these groomers got was anywhere near enough. At the very least every single one of them should have been either deported or imprisoned for life. Indeed, the UK should have brought back the death penalty. But the fact was that many of the folks that complained about these monsters ended up with longer sentences than the rapists. Angry tweets condemning the grooming gangs got long sentences, fathers that tried to rescue their girls got long sentences but the rapists? They did not. 

Will these inquires do much? Probably not. But they are going to damage Starmer and his government. There is a reason why they pushed so hard against any new inquires because the whole thing is likely to turn the people of the United Kingdom against their government. But the huge amount of backlash and anger about this might make police more willing to deal with the issue in the future. My guess is that they won't though, there are few things more worthless than a cop in the UK, and my guess is they will continue to focus on people making mean tweets. 

The energy war in Ukraine continues after a major Russian strike.

 

Ukrainian President Zelensky. AP.

Russia launched a major attack on Ukraine's energy system, knocking it out in some areas. AP. The attack came as a response to a new long range attack on Russian energy and logistics. Russia responded with a massive drone and missile attack on targets throughout Ukraine, ranging from Lviv in the West and Kharkov in the East. The missile and drone strikes were able to knock out power in many regions during harsh winter conditions. It continues a strategy of Russia to destroy Ukraine's ability to generate power, with most domestic production outside of nuclear power plants destroyed. In September Ukraine reported 60% of their power production destroyed and things have gotten worse since then. 

My Comment:

I have criticism for both sides on this story. First the Ukrainians. Launching long range missile strikes into Russia proper is just beyond stupid. Those weapons should absolutely be used near the front to support either their operations in the Kursk salient or, more critically, the Donbas front where they are on the verge of collapse. Doing so also drew more Russian attacks on their infrastructure, which dramatically damages their chances of the war as it could turn civilians against the government. 

For the Russians, why do they continue to do half measures? It makes no sense to make limited strikes on power generation. Russia has the capability to knock out most, if not all, power generation in Ukraine. You don't want to attack the nuclear power plants for pretty obvious reasons (though that hasn't stopped Ukraine from attempting it), but you can cut off the substations that transport that power. And there is absolutely no reason why they couldn't completely cut off power coming in from other countries. 

But so far they have mostly held back. This strike was effective but it wasn't so effective that it knocked power out for good. What are the Russians thinking? I am guessing it is genuine humanitarian concern. Russia has largely avoided hitting civilian targets, on purpose at least, and they do not seem to want to cause mass civilian casualties. 

I disagree with this, obviously. Russia's primary concern is to end the war and though knocking out the power grid in the middle of winter would probably cause some civilian casualties, it would win the war dramatically faster. That would mean that a lot more people would get to live on both sides. 

I also think that it's extremely unlikely that the war will end any other way than a Russian victory and the destruction of the Ukrainian state. Though I think Putin and Trump could cut a deal, why would Putin? He might be able to trust Trump to uphold any deal, but there is no way he could trust the next President, regardless of which party he belongs to. The West already betrayed Russia once during this war so diplomacy is not really an option. So anything that speeds up the eventual Russian victory

Congress passes ban on biological males participating in female sports

 

A placard at the event announcing the legislation. Fox News/Getty.

Congress has passed a ban on transgender students participating in sports that do not match their biological sex. Fox News. The bill passed, 218 to 206 with two Democrats joining the Republicans in passing the bill, while a third Democrat, Don Davis, voted "present". The bill will be taken up by the Senate next. The bill would ban transgender males from participating in woman's sports in schools between Kindergarten and High School, and would also ban it from colleges and universities that receive federal funds. The participation of male to female transgender students in female sports has been very controversial due to issues including fairness and fears about sexual assault in locker rooms. 

My Comment:

There absolutely has been a shift on this issue and I think a few Democrats are realizing how badly the issue plays for them. The two Democrats that voted for this bill (and one that voted present) are in districts that are trending red in red states and they understand that the issue could sink their chances in 2026 if they didn't do something. 

The bill seems pretty unlikely to pass in the Senate. Current control of the Senate is 53-47 and the filibuster limit is 60, so unless 7 Democrats flip to support the bill or the filibuster gets blown up, it's not likely to pass. Donald Trump would sign the law if it were to make his desk, but I just don't know if there are 7 Democrats that would cross over to vote for it. 

Donald Trump is likely to take executive action if the legislation fails to pass, so it's mostly a moot point. But I think it's important to discuss because it shows how much the tide is changing on this issue. The pendulum on transgenders has absolutely swung away from their camp and towards people that are skeptical of all aspects of the ideology. 

I do think that the transgender issue was one that helped cost the Democrats the presidency in 2024. Folks were mostly on board when it was just adults living their lives but the actions of the activists have turned people off. Indeed, the participation of grown men in girls sports, pretty much ruined them. Not only were records being broken by people that had an obvious biological advantage, there were even a few cases of women getting injured by biological men that were dramatically larger and stronger then them. It was something that really wasn't defensible and even the "live and let live" folks were disgusted by it. 

Either way, I do think that this is an easy win for Republicans no matter what. If the bill passes they manage to fix a problem that they were put into office to deal with. If the Democrats refuse to pass it in the Senate they have a campaign issue in 2026, even if Trump deals with it at the Executive level. Like I said, it's a winning issue for Republicans and an absolute albatross for the Democrats. 

I also think that this is another example of how much the culture appears to be shifting in the wake of Trump winning a 2nd term. Things just seem different now to the point where even Democrats are speaking out against the excesses of "wokism". Trump getting elected gave cover to folks who were never comfortable with the far left turn the country took in the last decade and a half permission to speak out...