Iraq is falling into chaos as prominent Shiite cleric Muqtata al-Sadr has resigned from the government, while his supporters storm government buildings. AP. 10 people have died in the fighting between al-Sadr's supporters and government police and militias. Iraq has been stuck in limbo after al-Sadr's party gained the most seats in Iraq's Parliament but not enough to actually form a government. The party has also refused to negotiate with the other major Shiite party, which is backed by Iran. Al-Sadr has been a huge influence in Iraq and is a nationalist who wants both the United States and Iran to stop interfering with Iraq. The disorder caused by al-Sadr's resignation has spread from Baghdad's Green Zone to other Shiite parts of the country, including Basra. It is unclear if al-Sadr's resignation will stick, as he has made the threat before.
My Comment:
There is a very good chance of Iraq falling into war for a third time if this situation isn't resolved. The two sides here don't seem to be very compatible and raise fundamental questions about who should control Iraq. It's also about if Iraq should be their own sovereign nation or if they should be a puppet of Iran or the United States.
Muqtata al-Sadr is a fairly complicated person. Al-Sadr was a thorn in the side of the United States during the first phase of the war, where he and his militias were attacking US forces. Al-Sadr is responsible for the deaths of many American soldiers and ordinary Iraqis. It's a testament to his power that he was never taken out.
On the other hand, I am somewhat sympathetic to his nationalist goals. Since the United States had been invaded the country has been dominated by other countries. Sometimes it was us, and sometimes it was Iran. I don't blame him for not wanting to put up with it.
Iran's fingers are all over this. They don't like al-Sadr because he is an Iraqi nationalist and he could interfere with their ambitions there. They don't particularly care if Iraq falls into civil war again, indeed, they would be happy with it if their power there increases.
The US reaction to this has been notable in how silent it has been. This is despite the fact that the fighting is happening right in the Green Zone, putting our diplomats and soldiers at risk. Biden, as usual, is out to lunch, talking about how half the country is fascist while he manages to blunder into yet another foreign policy disaster.
To be fair though, this is a crisis where we don't have good options. Muqtata al-Sadr hates the United States and is extremely unlikely to work with us. But we also don't want to work with the Iran backed party for what should be obvious reasons.
I think it says a lot about the state of Iraq that neither side decided to ally with Iraq's Sunni Muslims. I know that the Sunni Muslims discriminated against the Shiites, not only during the reign of Saddam Hussein but under ISIS as well, so it's little wonder why neither side has reached out to them. As for the Sunnis themselves, I see them sitting out of this conflict for obvious reasons.
Will the situation fall into war? I am not sure. The violence there is already getting pretty bad and heavy weapons have been deployed. There is still a chance for cooler heads to prevail, but given how far apart the two sides are, it seems very unlikely...
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