Russia, China, the UK, France and the United States all agree, no one can win a nuclear war.

 

File photo of the IAEA. Reuters.

The five permanent members of the UN Security council, Russia, China, France, the UK and the United States, have all agreed that no one can win a nuclear war. Reuters. They have all released a statement condemning the proliferation of nuclear arms and the use of those weapons. China said the statement would help reduce tensions as well and pointed out that they had a "no first use" policy. France said that they would be trying to get a disarmament treaty in place. The statement comes when US relations with Russia and China are at historic lows. 

My Comment:

I actually think that it is very possible to win a nuclear war. Indeed, it has happened before. After all, the United States won the Pacific Theater of World War II with the use of nuclear arms. The key to that was that Japan did not have nuclear weapons of their own to respond. 

And I do think it is possible that a limited exchange scenerio where only a few nuclear weapons were used could end with victory for one side or another. India vs Pakistan is a scenario where that could play out. Neither side has enough nukes to completely wipe out the other side, but the use of nuclear weapons could cripple the other side if they nukes were used in a way that made sure that most of the other sides weapons were destroyed, probably through a surprise attack. 

What about a full nuclear exchange between two powers like China, Russia and/or the United States? That seems a lot less likely to end with a major victory for either side. There would be massive casualties, huge amounts of materials and equipment destroyed and even after the nukes fall, there would be conventional forces that survive. But at that point many major cities would be destroyed and any eventual victory would be Pyric at best. 

But I do think that the nuclear doomsday scenario is overplayed. Most of the world would not feel the effects of nuclear weapons. Nuclear winter is a myth and any environmental effects are going to be limited to one hemisphere. 

That being said, I do think that nuclear war is something to be avoided. Just because it might be possible to win a nuclear war and the war itself won't be a world ending disaster does not mean that it is something we want. A nuclear war would kill millions and probably destroy civilization in the countries that got hit. 

I don't think we are anywhere near nuclear war though. I tend to think that the proposed hotspots in Ukraine and Taiwan are vastly overstated in terms of threats. If any war were to breakout, and remember, I'm extremely skeptical that one would, it would be limited in nature. Nuclear war would not happen. 

If a nuclear war were to happen my guess is that it would be between the nuclear countries that did not put out this statement. India and Pakistan have had major tensions and a few border wars before. A total war between those two is very possible. Same with Israel and Iran, though Iran currently has no nuclear weapons. Those countries have fewer nukes and the calculations for them are different. It would still be a major disaster with millions of dead, and it would crash the world economy, but it would not be a world ender.