Saturday, January 1, 2022

Will Joe Biden survive 2022 politically?

 

Joe Biden White House photo. 

In previous years on New Year's Day I would make predictions of the upcoming year and grade myself on the predictions I made in the year previously. That tradition ended last year due to the monkey wrench the Coronavirus threw into everything. I did not make predictions on 2021 because it was pointless, the virus made things too unpredictable. 

This year is much of the same as the virus still is making things very unpredictable. Indeed, most people thought that the virus would be gone now but it, and the reaction to it, has remained a forefront issue. It's almost hard to imagine what will happen when the virus is finally gone so it's very hard to make predictions about 2022. 

But I think there is one issue that is fairly easy to discuss and that is the Presidency of Joe Biden. Indeed, it's the talk of the town and all anyone has to think about these days. Biden has had a terrible first year in office and his continued political survival is no guarantee. 

Let's review some of the failures Biden had in 2021. The most obvious is the resurgence of the Coronavirus. Biden had famously promised to get the virus under control and for awhile in summer it looked like he might pull it off, or rather take credit for the virus receding naturally. The Delta variant killed that theory dead and Omicron is now desecrating the corpse. Biden made a huge mistake promising to get the virus under control and he is now paying the price for it. To be fair, Donald Trump made the same mistake, the virus was never a problem to be solved, but a hardship to be endured. Both men learned that the hard way. 

But that wasn't his only pandemic blunder. His policy of pursing vaccination rates at the expense of all other anti-Coronavirus measures have also backfired on him. The newer variants have proven that they can easily evade these vaccines and many of the people who got both the vaccine and the boosters are now sick. Imagine how much better things would be now if he had actually pursued treatments and updating guidelines. I remain convinced that the reason the Delta death rate was so high is because doctors are still intubating people, and Biden could have put a stop to that. 

Even worse, Biden put into place medical apartheid. Can anyone argue that the unvaccinated people in America are now not second class citizens? He wants people who don't get the vaccine to be essentially removed from society and he has done so, especially in the military. His actions have been contested but people will remember how he went after peoples jobs and livelihoods. It made his pandemic response needlessly divisive and didn't do a damn thing to stop the virus, as the current Omicron wave has proven. 

Biden has been a huge failure outside of the pandemic as well. Though the media has largely forgotten about it, the withdrawal from Afghanistan was a huge disaster. Most people were fine with pulling out troops but hated the way he did it. The Afghan government falling was probably inevitable given the massive corruption it had, but what wasn't inevitable was the massive failure that was the withdrawal, with people falling off of planes, a major terror attack and an airstrike that killed no terrorists but wiped out an innocent family. 

The biggest failure has to be the economy. Inflation is totally out of control and there are indicators that the problem will get worse before it gets better, if it ever does get better. Prices have gone up on everything and keep in mind that we are still buying goods built under the old pricings. Soon new products are going to be built under the new prices and that means everything will go up in price. And that means either people will stop buying products, leading to a recession, or inflation will continue until it reaches hyperinflation. 

How does Biden get out of this mess? I don't see how he does. His answer to every problem seems to be to double down further. People don't like vaccine mandates in the military? Make them for private companies as well. Inflation is a problem due to huge government spending? Spend more. Indeed, it doesn't seem like Biden has even the slightest idea how to handle these problems.

And Biden's poll numbers reflect this. His approval rating is dismal and not just among Republicans, who rightly hate him. He is now losing ground with independents and even some Democrats as well. His rating is lower than President Trump's were during this time of his presidency and that is with Trump having the major disadvantage of the media and other powers that be being totally opposed to him. 

Keep in mind that Biden's ceiling for approval is probably around 55%. Almost zero Republicans believe he is a legitimate president and feel he stole the election. And though you get censored for pointing out the various problems of the 2020 elections, the media has done nothing to convince anyone that Biden won legitimately. Indeed, Biden never even attempted to prove his case, he just banned anyone from disagreeing with him, which hasn't worked out for him and made his opponents case even stronger. 

The utter disgust for Biden is not something I have seen before. Many people disliked our last two Presidents, Obama and Trump, but there was nothing like the pure exasperation people are feeling towards Biden. The "Fuck Joe Biden" and "Let's Go Brandon" chants are pretty unprecedented politically and not something I have seen in my lifetime. It's disgust at a visceral level.

Even Democrats are getting sick of him, largely because the failures in Congress. Biden promised a lot to the far left and has delivered very little. Presidents usually only get one shot at passing a major bill before everyone starts worrying about the first term midterms that usually wipe out the party of the President and that has sure happened here. Biden's not going to get his "build back better" bill, he's not getting his voter fraud, oh excuse me, voter rights bill, he's not going to cancel student debt. And the progressives that voted for him for those reasons? They feel pretty stupid right now. 

Biden does still have some supporters. Most of them are center left, only watch TV news and voted for him because they hated Donald Trump. These people live in a bubble and mostly don't see how bad things are getting. But there is evidence that some of these people are questioning things now. It's hard to ignore a massive Coronavirus surge as well as inflation. 

All this indicates to me that Biden will lose control of at least the house, and probably the Senate as well in the 2022 elections. I don't think that the GOP will gain enough votes to actually remove Biden, but he will be impeached and with good reason. Biden has failed and in any other system of democratic government he would have had a vote of no confidence and been removed. I don't see Biden resigning or otherwise being removed from office but I think he is a lame duck President now and if he runs in 2024 the only way he wins is through some kind of miraculous recovery or massive voter fraud. But I don't see him running in 2024. He will either step down or some other Democrat will challenge him in the primary and likely win. His career has to be over at this point, it's just on life support. 

Of course it is no guarantee that Biden even makes it through 2022 alive, making the previous discussion pretty moot. Given his poor health which is obviously declining, he might not make it through the week, let alone the entirety of his term. Biden's mental decline has been shocking and it's clear he won't be around much longer even if he does somehow make it to the end of his term... 


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