The United States now leads the world in Coronavirus infections.

A microscopy picture of the Coronavirus. NIAID.

The United States has passed China and Italy and now has the most recorded number of Coronavirus cases. The Hill. As of this writing the United States has recorded 82,404 cases. The massive increase is largely due to better testing which is now finding cases that had been missed previously. However, it is unclear if America is really the number one country, with President Trump questioning the numbers coming out of China. However, it is important to note that America's deaths, at 1,290, are behind Italy, Spain, China, Iran and France. 

My Comment:

This is fairly grim news but it's important to note that our death rate is doing better than many other countries. Italy doesn't have as many cases but it has many more deaths, even though their outbreak has lasted about as long as our outbreak. However, we aren't doing as well as South Korea and Germany, who have had very few deaths.

Why are the death rates different? That's the million dollar question isn't it? I don't think it's due to difference in response, as Italy and Spain haven't been that incompetent with it. I have heard other explanations such as the fact that Northern Italy is pretty polluted and their population is older. 

However, I think the main problem for Italy is how concentrated the cases were. Unlike the United States where cases are popping up everywhere, cases in Italy were concentrated in Northern Italy. This caused Italy's health care system to be overwhelmed while in the United States only New York is having trouble keeping up with cases so far. This resulted in Italy having to triage patients, which obviously increased the death rate. 

I also think that America has been helped by the fact that we have had access to treatments that weren't available in the first months of the outbreak. We have evidence now that Chloroquinine, Hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir are at least somewhat effective against the virus and we are distributing it widely on humanitarian grounds despite them not being officially approved yet. This may also help keep the death rate down. Supply and logistics is a serious issue but one that will improve with time. 

I don't think there was a whole lot that could have been done to prevent this. Banning travel from China and Europe saved us some time but there is evidence that the disease was here and spreading before either was even an option. Testing was a problem but given how open our borders were and how huge our country is I don't think the South Korea outcome, where they largely limited cases to one city, was ever realistic here. 

I also think that things aren't quite as bad as the media is making it out to be. As I said before, I think that the death rate will be better here in the United States than elsewhere. And I also think it's important to note that our shutdown just begun and that cases are catching up with testing. Many of these case are not new infections, just ones that have been discovered. As more states go into lockdown, new infections will decrease. 

Will we make the Easter deadline that President Trump wants for a lift on social distancing? I am not sure. It seems pretty obvious that some of our larger cities, like New York, Los Angeles and New Orleans will not make that deadline. However, much of America may be able to do so as many states have nowhere near the number of active cases as these big cities. In my state, Wisconsin, it may be possible to open up much of the state in a couple weeks due to the fact many of our counties have single digit number cases or no detected cases at all. Time will tell if it works out, which even President Trump has acknowledged. 

I do think that the worst case scenarios described in the media won't happen either. These tend to expect that no treatments will be found and that social distancing won't work. It seems that both of those things are not true as countries have been able to slow or even stop the virus. Both South Korea and China have stopped the virus in their tracks and I think that we may be able to do the same thing. 

Finally, I think it's very possible that the Oxford model is correct. Researchers in the UK have proposed that the Coronavirus is actually more widespread than previously thought and that as much as half of the UK has already been infected. Most of those people either had no symptoms at all or only had very minor ones. If true that means that the virus won't be anywhere near as terrible as people are saying, though since the virus spreads so fast it could overwhelm health care systems. 

What we need right now is more information. Antibody tests will be able to detect people who have had the virus and didn't display symptoms. We know these people exist but we have no idea how many of them there are. Once an antibody test is widely deployed we can find out how bad this thing really is. And hopefully the Oxford model is correct and most of the country can go back to work.