President Trump extends social distancing until the end of April.

President Trump at today's news conference. Yahoo News/Reuters.

President Trump has extended social distancing until the end of April. Yahoo News. President Trump had hoped that the country would be allowed to reopen in time for Easter, but the newest models said that the disease may be peaking at that point. President Trump and his advisers have expressed concern about the damage the measures are doing to the economy. However, President Trump has now said that the measures may have to continue in May. 

My Comment:

This wasn't too unexpected. Opening up the country by Easter was always the best case scenario and it doesn't seem like it's going to happen now. It's clear that the virus is still spreading and that our various social distancing and quarantines haven't slowed the virus down enough to consider opening the country back up. 

But is the end of April too optimistic too? I guess we don't know yet. A lot can happen in 30 days and it's possible that the virus won't have slowed down enough for President Trump to roll out his gradual opening of America. It took quite some time for China to open up Wuhan after months of quarantine and we might see the same thing happen here. 

I do think that the weather will have an effect that might slow the virus. Though there are major outbreaks in the Southern Hemisphere and places like India, they seem to be spreading slower than they have in the Northern Hemisphere and cooler climates. I don't think there is evidence that the virus can't spread in warmer climates but it does seem like it does slow it down, which would be a good thing for the United States. 

This decision is going to harm the economy, no doubt about it. There are a lot of businesses that might have pulled through if they could open by Easter but won't survive to the end of the month. And I shudder to think about all the people out of work right now. Unemployment and Trump's $1200 will help a little but these people are going to start wondering how they are going to pay their bills, if they aren't behind already. 

That being said, I think this probably is the right decision. If the models are right and the virus is going to peak around Easter than it would be stupid to open things then. Once we get things under control then we can use President Trump's three tiered system to open things up county by county. The rural areas can open first and then the suburbs and finally the big cities.

I also think there is room for optimism. I still think that there are effective treatments out there and by the end of this shutdown they should be well distributed and widely available. And China, South Korea and Japan show that the virus can be slowed considerably and even stopped in the case of China (if you believe their numbers). This virus will eventually go away and I don't think the worst case scenario will come to pass. Indeed, we are already handling this better than I had feared during the early days of the crisis.