President Trump signals that the Coronavirus lockdown/social distancing might be lifted earlier than thought.

President Trump at a Coronavirus briefing. CBS News/Reuters.

President Trump is signalling that the Coronavirus lockdown might be lifted earlier than previously thought. CBS News. Trump said the 15 day guideline would be reevaluated after it expires. President Trump said that he did not want the cure to be worse than the disease, referring to the damage the virus is causing to the country's economy. The Coronavirus is spreading quickly, but is more prominent in New York, Washington state and California. 

My Comment:

I think this, along with the failure of congress to pass a third economic package, is pretty good evidence that we are going to have a treatment for Coronavirus soon. It seems pretty clear that the various quinine based drugs are working and that once we ramp up production we will be able to loosen restrictions, at least for younger and healthier people. 

My guess is that we will need some more time to ramp up production of these drugs and make sure that we have enough ventilators and masks for people. That justifies keeping the lockdown/social distancing measures brought by the President. And I do think that it probably will be extended for a little while, we might get another 7-15 days of the original order, but after that I think we will see some things get eased back. 

What will that look like? I am guessing that older people and people with bad immune systems will be left in lockdown. These people are extra vulnerable even if Chloroquine proves effective. Younger healthier people will be able to return to work, possibly on a limited basis. Bars and restaurants probably won't be allowed to open right away or do so on a very limited basis. 

I think that it will also depend on the state. With the virus out of control in New York, I fully expect the lockdown there to continue for quite some time. But in other states which don't have many infections and where there isn't too much pressure on the health care system I think things will return to normal more quickly. 

I do think that it is important to note that lifting restrictions will probably lead to more deaths and infections even if Chloroquine and other drugs are able to treat this disease. The treatment may work for many people but not everyone will be able to take it and it won't work in some cases. And if the drugs don't work than a lot of people could get sick.

But I think there has to be a trade off. We can't just lock down the country indefinitely. We already have taken massive economic damage and at some point we have to do something to get the country back on it's feet. There has to be a trade off somewhere and at some point we have to decide that fighting the virus isn't worth completely destroying the economy, especially with Congress utterly failing to pass help for American families. 

I think it's right when President Trump says we can do more than one thing. We can fight the virus and get the economy back on its feet at the same time. We may have to make some serious sacrifices but if we have a treatment that is mostly effective those sacrifices will be a lot easier to bear.