Skirmish erupts between armies of Turkey and Syria in Idlib.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Reuters. 

A skirmish has erupted between the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Idlib province. Reuters. The Turkish military hit dozens of targets in the region after 8 of their troops were killed in shelling. They claim to have hit 54 targets and killed 76 Syrian soldiers. The Turks claimed to have used American provided F-16's in the strikes but Russia denies this. The skirmish happened in Idlib, which is the last remaining rebel stronghold in Syria. Turkey backs the rebels in the war while Russia is backing the Syrian government. The skirmish is damaging relations between Russia and Turkey and joint patrols that the two governments conduct in Syria have been canceled. 

My Comment:

I think the best thing Turkey could do here is to pull out of Syria. The war there has gone on for nine years and all Turkey is doing right now is delaying the inevitable. Idlib is the only area of the country where the rebels are still active. 

And to be clear, the Idlib province doesn't have many actual rebels. The vast majority of troops there are with whatever al-Nusra Front is calling themselves today. Al-Nusra, as you may know, are an al-Qaeda affiliate and if it wasn't for the existence of ISIS they would be the evilest faction in Syria. 

I do have to say that it was a bad idea for Syria to try and pick a fight with Turkey. Their military has been bleed dry by 9 years of war and they are in no way ready to pick a fight with Turkey. Even with Russia's backing they can't really counter Turkey's military might. 

That being said though, I think Turkey might be biting off more than the can chew if they get into an involved conflict with the Syrian government. Turkey is stretched thin right now. They have an internal conflict with the Kurds that isn't going away, plus they just made a major deployment in Libya to prop up one of the governments there. If an actual war with Syria were to break out they could be in trouble. 

The Russians can't be happy here. They want the war to end and want the Syrian government to stand. They also want to protect their various bases in Syria. A fight with Turkey threatens all of that. And given that Turkey and Russia had an agreement on Syria they are probably very upset with this whole situation.

However, I am betting that this whole thing will blow over. A major fight between Syria and Turkey isn't in anyone's best interest. My guess is that cooler heads will prevail and in the end the status quo will reign supreme.