A doctor treating Coronavirus patients. Politico.
The Coronavirus and the economic impact of the outbreak could be a "black swan" event that could damage President Trump's reelection campaign. Politico. The stock market tumbled today after reports surfaced over the weekend of major new outbreaks of the virus in Italy, Iran and South Korea. The virus, if it continues to spread, could cause major economic damage which is a bad thing for President Trump who is basing his reelection campaign on the economic success of his first three years in office. There is also concern if an outbreak happens in the United States, which is very possible, the Trump administration could be blamed for it.
My Comment:
I'm fairly worried about this myself. I had said in the past that President Trump should sail to reelection baring some kind of disaster but the Coronavirus outbreak could be that disaster. It's one of those economic events that people really couldn't have predicted.
However, it really depends on how bad things get. If the virus does get contained, which is possible, the economy should bounce back rather quickly. America has been insulated from the worst damage from the virus and it could even benefit the American economy as companies decide that getting all their supplies from China is a dangerous proposition. Though things look bad right now it's very possible that the virus does get contained or mutates to a less dangerous form.
If there is a major outbreak globally than the economic damage could be extreme. The problems we are already seeing with supply chains and production could get worse. This will be true even if it doesn't spread to America, or we only have limited cases. One of the main flaws of globalism is that damage done to one economy effect the entire world, and if China's economy takes forever to recover, or Europe and the rest of Asia start seeing the same kind of problems, we might not be able to limit the damage to our economy as well.
Of course if this damage tanks the US economy it could damage the President's reelection bid. Right now it's hard to argue against the economic success that President Trump has had. His tax cut helped normal Americans and there are help wanted signs pretty much everywhere. A major economic recession caused by the Coronavirus could ruin the argument against President Trump.
However, I think that the Politico article overestimates the economic argument for President Trump. When I voted for him back in 2016, the economy wasn't a major concern. I voted for him based on foreign policy, which has been a success. I was also angry about the actions of the Democrats and, if anything, they have gone even more insane. President Trump has also been controversy proof for his fans and he's fairly charismatic and funny.
And his opponents are controversial to say the least. The front-runner is a geriatric old socilaist who is deeply unpopular with the GOP and independents. He's also facing a nanny state anti-gun former mayor who is trying to buy the election, a senile old man, a totally unlikable woman and a small town mayor. Even if President Trump botches the virus outbreak, his competition probably isn't going to be able to capitalize it due to their own fatal flaws.
But the worst case scenario makes the whole thing pointless. If the outbreak becomes widespread and the country goes on lockdown, will we even have an election? Given the advanced age of most of the frontrunners (President Trump, Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren are all over 70), couldn't they succumb to the virus as well? Without more information about how dangerous this situation actually is we are limited to speculation, but if the virus infects millions of people all bets are off.
Regardless though, my money would still be on President Trump. Though the Coronavirus is a major curve-ball, even if it does get bad the power of incumbency is a major factor that is extremely difficult to overcome. People don't like switching horses in the middle of a race so my guess is that President Trump gets a second term.
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