Coronavirus outbreak spreads into South Korea, Iran and Italy.

A police officer and pedestrians wear facemasks in Tehran, Iran. NPR/AP.

Despite ongoing efforts to contain the disease in China, major outbreaks of the Coronavirus are occurring in South Korea, Italy and Iran. NPR. In South Korea they have had 602 cases and 6 deaths, which has lead to the government declaring the national threat to the highest level. This will allow the country to enforce lockdowns and restrict travel. The outbreak there is centered on the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, where many of the cases originated after an infected person attended services. 

Over the weekend in Italy, 152 cases were found with three deaths. This is a major escalation as before Friday Italy only had three cases. 11 towns and cities have gone into lockdown with many events and activities canceled. Italy is the first country outside of Asia to have a large number of transmissions in the wild, with most other countries which have cases due to people returning from China. 

In Iran, 43 cases were found with 8 deaths, most of which occurred in Qom. Officials are handing out facemasks and hand sanitizer. The Iranian government is shutting down events along with cultural and religious centers. Surrounding countries, including Turkey and Pakistan, have closed their borders with Iran. 

My Comment:

Bad news indeed. It seems likely now that the Coronavirus isn't going to be contained. There are now major outbreaks in these three countries which will likely get much worse. And if they can happen in Iran, South Korea and Italy, they can happen anywhere. Governments are closing the borders with these countries but given the long incubation time for the virus it may already be too late. 

South Korea wasn't too surprising as the country is near China and people regularly travel between the two countries for business. Given the conditions there are similar to China and they have a high population density it's no surprise that the virus is spreading there. They will also likely have the same kind of trouble containing the virus as China has, even though they seem to be adapting the same methods to fight the virus.

Iran is a bit more of a shock as I haven't heard how the virus got their in the first place. Obviously someone traveled from China but the details are scarce. Pretty much every country in the region has closed their borders with Iran, probably because they have little faith in the Islamic Republic to contain the virus. Given how fragile the country is, the Coronavirus might be the thing that pushes the country over the edge as people are already protesting the response to the virus. 

Italy is a major development and it's very concerning how quickly the virus spread. In just a weekend they have had triple digit infections and three deaths. I think it also puts to rest the conspiracy theory that Coronavirus only effects Asians as presumably most, if not all, the infected are white. Given Italy's central location and the ease of travel in the EU, I would not be surprised if new outbreaks are seen soon in Europe. 

Of course China is the main problem and it seems like there are less infections. However, it does seem as though China has changed the way they count cases and I don't trust the numbers coming out of China in the first place. Indeed, one of the positive things from these new outbreaks is that we will finally be able to tell how dangerous this virus is because I trust Italy and South Korea to give the world and accurate accounting of what is going on in their countries. 

The economic effects of all these lockdowns is going to be severe. Already companies that are dependent on Chinese goods and supplies are starting to have production problems. With the virus spreading to new countries that problem is going to get a lot worse. This will greatly disrupt the world economy and could even lead to a rescission. 

With cases popping up in new countries I think its probably time to start preparing for the virus. As Italy shows, it's very possible that your country can go from little to no cases to more than a hundred in just a couple of days. I think that it is a matter of when this will happen in your country and not if. With our global economy and world travel it's only a matter of time now. 

So what should you do to prepare? My advice would be to stock up on supplies with food and medicine being a major priority. With lockdowns being the main strategy to fight the virus, you might not be able to get those things on your own and you don't want to be dependent on the government. And if you are lucky enough to live in a country where you can own a firearm, now would be the time to get one, or make sure to stock up on ammo if you already have one. 

That being said, I don't think this will be "collapse of civilization" bad. After all, the Spanish Flu was way worse. 27% of the worlds population got infected and 50 to 100 million people died. I'm not expecting the Coronavirus to reach either of those numbers but even if it did it's important to note that the Spanish Flu was not a civilization ender. Things mostly continued the way they were even though many millions of people died. I think that's the worst case scenario here and even that is unlikely. 

And it's also important to note that for most people Coronavirus caused mild illness. Some cases are more severe but the mortality rate is mostly connected to age and general health. It's mostly the elderly and the already sick that are dying from this disease with few younger people dying. That's little comfort for anyone who's older or sick but it does give hope for the average person.

I do think this will have a major impact on the United States and not just in the terms of the economy. This is an election year and I think the virus could have a pretty huge impact on the outcome of the election. If the virus starts spreading, President Trump could be blamed for it and it could be the kind of "black swan" event that could cost him a 2nd term. Of course the other candidates would be effected by travel bans and I don't know how people would be able to vote if they are in lockdown. And given the advanced age of the candidates and how often they meet with large numbers of people it's possible that the candidates themselves could succumb to the disease. 

Compared to other stories happening right now, I haven't been writing extensively on the Coronavirus. Part of that is due to the large numbers of big stories going on right now, but I do think I have been neglecting it. Given how widespread the outbreak is now and that it has spread far beyond the borders of China, expect more posts about the Coronavirus as we get more news about the disease.