Iran's Foreign Minster says that "there will be no war" between Iran and the United States.

Iran's Foreign Minster Mohammad Javad Zarif. BBC/Reuters.

Iran's Foreign Minster Mohammad Javad Zarif says that "there will be no war" between Iran and the United States. BBC. Though tensions between the countries remain very high, Zarif's comments match President Donald Trump who also said that he did not want war. Zarif claimed that Trump's advisers were the ones that want war but he realizes that Trump himself does not want it. Tensions are high after the US pulled out of a nuclear agreement and have resulted in warnings about attacks by Iranian proxies and more US forces in the area. 

My Comment:

Once again, I've always maintained that Iran was likely to go the same way that North Korea did. All the saber rattling and threats don't amount to much and may be a prelude to talks. The entire situation reminds me of the first steps of the North Korea thaw. 

If you remember, tensions were very high with North Korea right after Trump was elected. Trump and the North Korean government exchanged insults, but it was always clear that Trump left the door open for negotiation. Eventually North Korea decided to use that door, and although the situation isn't perfect now, it's massively better than it was when we all started. 

I think something similar is here. I think Trump's strategy is the same. Saber rattle and insult your opponents but at the same time leaving the door open for a face saving deal. It's fairly predictable and if Iran goes for it, it will be for the best. 

However, the real question is if Iran will go for it. This is the first sign I have seen that it's possible that they will. They have been much more aggressive than North Korea ever was and have ideological and practical reasons to not want to negotiation with President Trump. 

Ideologically, Iran hates Israel and America and doesn't want to be seen weak by getting into an agreement with America that could threaten their ambitions in the region. The reason they accepted Obama's deal wasn't because they genuinely wanted peace but because they knew they got a sweetheart deal. 

And practically, Iran may want to just wait it out. After all, they made a big deal with Obama and the Democrats and might expect that if/when Trump is out of office they will get a better deal with the next presumably Democratic president. That's the same play China is making and even if they are wrong and Trump gets re-elected (which I believe he will) they only have to wait four more years after that. Why not wait Trump out?

Still, sanctions are hurting Iran pretty badly and it seems like they are terrified of Trump's war hawk advisers, especially John Bolton. They may decide to come to the table just so Trump doesn't listen to Bolton, who is perceived at least as wanting to start a war. I am thinking that despite the obvious reasons not to come to the table, Iran may indeed decide that discretion is the better part of valor here. 

I sincerely hope that war can be avoided. Obviously, I don't want Trump to start a war, but if Iran miscalculates and attacks us at home or abroad, it pretty much has to happen. Right now, I think that outcome is very unlikely and I feel like cooler heads will prevail in the end.