Saturday, May 4, 2019

DR Congo Ebola deaths pass 1000 and outbreak continues.

A man makes a headstone for a victim of the Ebola outbreak. BBC/Reuters. 

Deaths in the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo has topped 1000. BBC. The outbreak began last year and is now the 2nd deadliest in history, after the West African outbreak of 2013-2016. Though a vaccine has been developed and administered to over 100,000 high risk individuals, infections continue. Complicating matters are the multiple attacks on health workers, with 119 attacks since January. The violence in Eastern Congo have made it very difficult for health workers to operate, plus the locals are very suspicious of health workers. The country is also suffering from an outbreak of Measles which has killed a similar number of people, but infected many more. The risk of Ebola spreading globally is low but the World Health Organization believes that it could spread beyond the borders of DR Congo. 

My Comment:
A quick update on the Ebola outbreak, which seems to be doomed to continue in the foreseeable future. With DR Congo continuing to be a basketcase and quite a bit of violence erupting, I don't see how this outbreak ends anytime soon. Indeed, if it wasn't for the vaccine and the limited efforts to stop the virus, I am betting this one would already be worse than the last Ebola outbreak.

The anti-government militias are the main source of violence and are preventing health care workers from doing their jobs. Such actions are pretty stupid because these militias are just as vulnerable to Ebola as anyone else, but I doubt they care. 

Ebola is helping them fight the government though. Having to treat hundreds of sick people is a major cost for them and the more damage the virus does to the government the better it is for the militias. 

Of course, recent reports that ISIS is now active in the DR Republic of Congo have complicated things. A three way war will be even harder to manage than the current civil war and would give the virus a major foothold to spread perhaps even outside of the borders of the Congo.

The measles outbreak in the country has not gotten anywhere near the press as the Ebola outbreak has. Part of that is due to the fact that measles is a much less deadly disease. Many more people in the Congo have gotten measles but only 1000 have died. Part of it is also the fact that most American and Europeans have been vaccinated for measles so even if the outbreak spreads they will be safe. Not so with Ebola. 

But will Ebola spread beyond the borders of DR Congo? The same violence and disorder that has prevented the treatment of the disease may also be containing it. Travel is difficult in the Congo these days and may make it much harder to spread the disease to other countries. 

I don't know what the solution is for the current Ebola outbreak. The 2013-2016 one was stopped due to a huge international response with many doctors and aid workers pouring into the affected countries. The chaos and violence in the DR Congo, with the additional threat of ISIS makes that impossible. Eventually the virus may burn itself out but it will take a very long time with many dead...

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