Aircraft carrier sent to Persian Gulf in response to intelligence saying Iran was planning attacks on US forces.

The USS Abraham Lincoln. ABC News/US Navy.

A US aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, has been deployed along with other assets in response to intelligence that Iran was planning attacks against US targets in Iraq, Syria and at sea. ABC News.  The military said that there was credible intelligence that Iran and their proxy forces were going to attack. In response, the USS Abraham Lincoln was deployed along with a force of B-52 bombers. Secretary of State Mike Pompano, who headed to Iraq in response to the crisis, said that targets in Erbil and Baghdad in Iraq and Amman in Jordan were at risk. National Security Adviser John Bolton said that America is not seeking war with Iran, but would respond to any attacks on US forces. 

My Comment:

I'm not really too concerned about this deployment. People on the internet are freaking out about this but people on the internet freak out about everything. A single deployment is not a prelude to war and the forces in the region are not adequate to defeat the Iranian regime. 

 That being said, there are enough forces in the area to respond to an attack. The carrier and it's supporting ships could launch close air support against any attack and they could also attack Iranian targets with their bomber aircraft and cruise missiles. The B-52's could also help defend against any attacks. 

It's unclear what the threats could be. US forces in Iraq and Syria have been largely withdrawn and the cities mentioned by Pompano are not ones where he have large numbers of combat troops. Instead it seems like diplomatic targets like embassies and consulates were the targets. Those targets would be less defended and could be easy targets. 

Reports say that US ships could have been at risk as well. I have mentioned that Iran has used drones to photograph US ships and I wonder if a drone strike against our ships is possible. It's unclear how good our ships defenses are against drones but we might have found out. 

I think the main threat was from terror groups like Hezbollah who are Iranian proxies. They have experience with these kinds of attacks and have a major presence in both Iraq and Syria. They could easily launch attacks in both countries. Jordan is more of a headscratcher as I don't really think of Hezbollah when I think of Jordan, but Hezbollah is a huge terror organization and it wouldn't be that difficult for them to attack there. 

Attacking US forces makes little sense for Iran. At least doing it openly makes little sense. Doing so with plausible deniability like they did during the Iraq War has less risk but openly attacking means they will get a response. It might not be regime change but it could mean major airstrikes and missile attacks. It would destroy their economy which is already hanging by a thread and could result in the deaths of the leaders of Iran. 

It could be a desperation play though. Iran has been crippled by sanctions and the suspensions of the nuclear deal and they may feel like they have nothing to lose. They could also be misinterpreting President Trump. Though Trump is tough on Iran, he has little desire for war or regime change. If they Iranians don't understand that they might actually launch an attack. 

I think that outcome is unlikely, but if Iran does launch attacks it could be much more dangerous for America then people think. Hezbollah does have a presence in America and could easily launch attacks on US civilians or military targets. Such an attack would guarantee a response but it could cause massive damage. 

Still, I think this is a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. Iran's leadership shouldn't be this stupid and the only way they get knocked out of power is if they do something this stupid. My guess is that the intel was for hypothetical attacks. That being said, it is something to keep an eye on over the next few days.