North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. The Telegraph/Getty.
North Korea is suspected of building a major biological weapons program according to a new study. The Telegraph. They are suspected of using 13 biological agents, including smallpox, anthrax and cholera. North Korea may also attempt to bypass the technical difficulty in loading biological agents into warheads by using unconventional tactics. They could instead use infiltrators to spray agents or contaminate water supplies. In addition to their nuclear weapons, the North Koreans could use biological weapons as a major distraction during any potential war. It is unclear how advanced North Korea's biological weapons program is as there are not any clear signs like earthquakes from the nuclear tests. The study recommends that the United States increase focus on the biological threat.
The Harvard Kennedy School report can be found here.
My Comment:
North Korea has gotten the most attention for their advanced nuclear program. That program is a threat. If they were to deploy their weapons and they successfully detonated in major South Korean cities, millions could die. And North Korea's missile program is advanced enough that they can definitely hit Japan or Guam and perhaps the west coast of America as well.
Still, even if a nuclear war were to break out with North Korea, it would be survivable. Sure millions of people would die but it would not be a threat to human civilization. Even if China, Russia and the United States launched all of their nukes humanity would survive, though greatly weakened.
That might not be true for biological weapons. It is possible that the North Koreans could develop a biological weapon that could kill more people through pandemic than even a full scale nuclear war. Weaponizeing something like smallpox but modifying it to make the vaccines against it not work is something that is technically possible and could spread throughout the world.
Though such a thing is technically possible, I doubt that the North Koreans have the technical ability to do so. Modifying biological weapons has been done before, but it takes quite a bit of expertise and it is very expensive. I don't know if they North Koreans are capable of doing so. The problem is that I don't know if anyone else does either.
Of course even a conventional release of a normal pathogen could be hugely dangerous. Smallpox is one of the biggest threats. Smallpox has, of course, been eradicated since 1980 and the vaccine is dangerous as well. We have largely lost our immunity to the disease and if it were to be released it could kill millions of people. And agents like Anthrax and Cholera would devastate the South Koreans.
The limiting factor is that any release of biological weapons would occur during a major war. That major war would greatly limit travel in the region and prevent the disease from spreading to other countries. They would likely devastate South Korean civilians and weaken both their military and any US troops deployed in the region, but hopefully it wouldn't spread beyond that. And agents like Anthrax and Cholera wouldn't be easily spread outside of the region anyways, though Smallpox would spread like wildfire.
I also think that there would be a global panic if North Korea used biological weapons. People have a natural fear of disease and will be horrifying by the images that would come from a massive biological attack. Remember the Ebola outbreak? That outbreak was mostly limited to Africa but the few cases that made it outside caused quite a bit of concern. Imagine how freaked out people would be if that outbreak was man-made. And remember that Ebola could potentially be weaponized if the North Koreans have access to it...
Still, there is a strong argument to be made for North Korea being smart enough to not deploy biological weapons. The obvious reason is that any deployment of biological weapons has a very good chance of backfiring and hitting your own troops and population. Even North Korea's leadership would be put at risk, especially from any weapons that don't have an available vaccine. And official US policy is that any chemical or biological weapons strike will be treated as a nuclear one and responded to in kind.
On the other hand, North Korea has to know that they can't win a conventional war against the combined forces of South Korea and America, plus anyone else that wants to join in. Their conventional Army, Navy and Air Force are outdated and outgunned by their enemies. Anything that can weaken their enemies might be considered even if it results in further North Korean deaths...
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