Kurdish fighters. BBC/AFP
Iraqi government and Kurdish forces have clashed over the oil rich city of Kirkuk. BBC. Peshmerga fighters fled from the city as Iraqi troops have captured the K1 military base, oil fields and a oil companies offices. The retreat was mostly peaceful, but clashed have broken out between the Kurds and government fighters south of Kirkuk. The Iraqi operation is seen in response to the independence referendum that passed in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Information is lacking but it does seem clear that people have died in the clashes and military equipment has been destroyed. The deployment of Iranian backed militias have complicated the situation further.
#Kirkuk - southern city limit checkpoint. All peaceful until...#bbcnews #iraq @OrlaGuerin pic.twitter.com/CROgynoVtj— Duncan Stone (@DuncanCStone) October 16, 2017
My Comment:
Fairly disappointed in both sides of this conflict. The Kurds and Iraqis were brothers in arms for most of the war against ISIS and it is sad to see them throw it away so quickly. I think both sides bear responsibility for this conflict.
First, the Kurds did not have to hold their independence referendum so soon. ISIS isn't even defeated yet and they still control some of the countryside. Iraq isn't stable right now and the Kurds needed to realize that pushing for independence now wasn't ever going to fly. They should also realize that the Iraqi military is not the broken force it once was. It is now a professional, well armed, well led and well motivated fighting force. Pushing them around with this independence vote was a very bad idea. A better time would have been when ISIS was at it's peak and the Iraqi government was too weak to respond.
But it's not like the Iraqi's are innocent here either. They shouldn't have pushed so hard to regain control of Kirkuk. Doing so has only intensified the conflict. Instead they should have gone to the negotiating table. They didn't have to give the Kurds independence but they could have at least stalled for time. The war against ISIS isn't over yet and they last thing they need is to open up another front in the war.
Speaking of ISIS, I have long said that the only chance they have is another major conflict to erupt that could divide the forces arrayed against them. Certainly an all out war between the Iraqis and Kurds would do so nicely, especially if that conflict spreads to the neighboring states with Kurdish minorities as well. Both military forces are powerful now but a major conflict between them could weaken them both enough that ISIS could make a resurgence in Iraq. It's still a longshot given how completely devastated ISIS is, but they are still getting an opportunity if war does break out.
The United States probably isn't happy about this. We have long supported both the Iraqi government and the Kurdish fighters in their war against ISIS and they have been our best allies throughout the war. Not only does this work against our purpose against ISIS, it undoes much of the progress we have made in the Middle East.
The enemies of the Kurds in the region are probably thrilled. Obviously ISIS counts, but the governments of Iran, Syria and Turkey are also happy. Iraqi's aren't the only people afraid of an independent Kurdish state. With large Kurdish minorities in all three countries, they are happy that Iraq appears to be making an example of the Kurds.
Why did Iraq go for Kirkuk though? Well they had to abandon the city during the war against ISIS. The Kurds stepped up and took the city and defended it against ISIS even though it wasn't their territory. Now that the war against ISIS is winding down, the Iraqis want the city back, even though the Kurds fought for it.
Why? Because of money. Kirkuk is in one of the most fertile oil producing areas in the country and Iraq desperately needs that oil money to help rebuild the country. It's a massively important strategic asset and they can't let the Kurds keep it under any circumstances.
Finally, is war likely? I honestly don't know. You would hope that the two groups that fought side by side for most of the war would be able to get over something like this. But on the other hand, wars have started for stupider reasons and it's not unreasonable that Iraqis would fight to keep control of Kurdish territory and that the Kurds would want their own country. I fear that war may indeed be coming and if it does it will be another dark chapter in the already depressing story of Iraq...
First, the Kurds did not have to hold their independence referendum so soon. ISIS isn't even defeated yet and they still control some of the countryside. Iraq isn't stable right now and the Kurds needed to realize that pushing for independence now wasn't ever going to fly. They should also realize that the Iraqi military is not the broken force it once was. It is now a professional, well armed, well led and well motivated fighting force. Pushing them around with this independence vote was a very bad idea. A better time would have been when ISIS was at it's peak and the Iraqi government was too weak to respond.
But it's not like the Iraqi's are innocent here either. They shouldn't have pushed so hard to regain control of Kirkuk. Doing so has only intensified the conflict. Instead they should have gone to the negotiating table. They didn't have to give the Kurds independence but they could have at least stalled for time. The war against ISIS isn't over yet and they last thing they need is to open up another front in the war.
Speaking of ISIS, I have long said that the only chance they have is another major conflict to erupt that could divide the forces arrayed against them. Certainly an all out war between the Iraqis and Kurds would do so nicely, especially if that conflict spreads to the neighboring states with Kurdish minorities as well. Both military forces are powerful now but a major conflict between them could weaken them both enough that ISIS could make a resurgence in Iraq. It's still a longshot given how completely devastated ISIS is, but they are still getting an opportunity if war does break out.
The United States probably isn't happy about this. We have long supported both the Iraqi government and the Kurdish fighters in their war against ISIS and they have been our best allies throughout the war. Not only does this work against our purpose against ISIS, it undoes much of the progress we have made in the Middle East.
The enemies of the Kurds in the region are probably thrilled. Obviously ISIS counts, but the governments of Iran, Syria and Turkey are also happy. Iraqi's aren't the only people afraid of an independent Kurdish state. With large Kurdish minorities in all three countries, they are happy that Iraq appears to be making an example of the Kurds.
Why did Iraq go for Kirkuk though? Well they had to abandon the city during the war against ISIS. The Kurds stepped up and took the city and defended it against ISIS even though it wasn't their territory. Now that the war against ISIS is winding down, the Iraqis want the city back, even though the Kurds fought for it.
Why? Because of money. Kirkuk is in one of the most fertile oil producing areas in the country and Iraq desperately needs that oil money to help rebuild the country. It's a massively important strategic asset and they can't let the Kurds keep it under any circumstances.
Finally, is war likely? I honestly don't know. You would hope that the two groups that fought side by side for most of the war would be able to get over something like this. But on the other hand, wars have started for stupider reasons and it's not unreasonable that Iraqis would fight to keep control of Kurdish territory and that the Kurds would want their own country. I fear that war may indeed be coming and if it does it will be another dark chapter in the already depressing story of Iraq...
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