Iraqi forces launch attack on the last remaining ISIS strongholds in Iraq.

Iraqi forces with a technical. BBC/AFP.

Iraqi forces have launched their final offensive on the last remaining ISIS strongholds in Iraq, the border towns of al-Qaim and Rawa. BBC. The Prime Minster of Iraq, Haider al-Abadi has told ISIS militants that they must choose between "death and surrender". ISIS still has control of parts of Syria, with the besieged city of Dier ez Zor being their last major holding. Iraqi forces have already clears some villages and liberated the H-2 airbase in the western desert. ISIS is thought to have 1500 remaining troops in the al-Qaim area. 50,000 civilians remain in the two towns as well. 

My Comment:

This is the beginning of the end for ISIS in Iraq. After Rawa and al-Qaim fall they will have no major holdings left in Iraq. All of the cities and towns they captured since 2014 will be liberated in Iraq. They may still have holdouts camping out in the desert or left behind in those cities and towns but as a major fighting force ISIS will be done. Their Caliphate will no longer exist in Iraq.

And they will be defeated sooner rather than later. With only 1500 fighters left they are facing a very strong and battle tested Iraqi military along with their US and other allied air support. They have very little hope of survival, let alone victory. They can't hope to defeat the forces arrayed against them, they can only delay the inevitable. 

Their best bet is to fight a rear guard action while most of their troops flee to Syria. That could save the lives of some of those ISIS fighters and allow them to continue fighting for another day. But even that option is evaporating quickly and would likely just be a fool's errand. Both the Syrian government, backed by the Russians, and the Syrian Kurds, backed by the United States, are advancing quickly towards the border with Iraq as well. Their last major stronghold in Syria, Deir ez Zor has been cut off and is currently besieged by Syrian forces. 

There really isn't anywhere to flee to. Escaping from the Iraqi/Syrian border region isn't possible because all routes of escape have been cut off. ISIS is too weak and devastated that they can't really try and break out either. Even attempting it seems impossible at this point. Fleeing to Syria could buy a bit of time with the hope that somehow things there could devolve into a major war between the Kurds and the Syrian government as well as their backers, but even that seems inconceivable now. 

ISIS will be defeated in both Iran and Syria and the only question that remains is how long it will take and how many people will have to die before it happens. They have no chance of recovering from this as an actual state and they have lost both of their capitals in Raqqa and Mosul. My guess is that Iraq will be liberated completely before the end of this year and Syria will join them sometime early in 2018 at the latest. 

Of course, and I always say this since the war turned against ISIS, the defeat of ISIS on the battlefield will not mean the end of ISIS. They will continue on as a guerrilla force and will continue to launch raids and terror attacks in both Iraq and Syria. And there are potentially millions of people that still support what they tried to do and will support them in the future as the Islamic State evolves into a more traditional terrorist movement. 

I also always have to mention that it really was a game changer when both the Iraqis and the United States changed the rules of engagement to prioritize killing ISIS fighters over letting them escape. Doing so has greatly increased the pace of liberation and probably saved thousands of lives. Sure, the shift probably killed a few civilians in the short term, but it is going to end the fighting so much quicker. Both President Donald Trump and Prime Minster Haider al-Abadi deserve a lot of credit for that. 

I don't know what will happen after ISIS is kicked out of Iraq. I think that the tensions that are already flaring up between the Kurds and the Iraqi government could fracture Iraq's chances for peace. That would be a shame as Iraq certainly deserves some peace after the US invasion, the first insurgency and the ISIS catastrophe. I sincerely hope that the defeat of ISIS in Iraq will represent an end to the fighting there. Let us all hope that peace finally breaks out.