The Russian destroyer Smetlivy in a 2013 photo. Reuters
In yet another incident between Turkey and Russia, a Russian destroyer had to fire warning shots at a Turkish fishing boat. AFP. The conflict occurred in the Aegean Sea where the Russian destroyer Smetlivy was at anchor 13.7 miles from the Greek island of Lemnos. While there it encountered a Turkish fishing boat that was on a collision course with the destroyer. The Russian ship tried to make contact with the Turkish one, but the ship ignored both radio contact and visual signals. When the ship closed to about 600 meters, sailors on the Smetlivy opened fire with small arms in what is being described as warning shots. The Turkish ship then changed course. Tensions between Turkey and Russia are sky high due to the destruction of a Russian fighter jet that was serving in Syria. Turkey shot that plane down and their allies on the ground killed one of the pilots. Russia released a statement saying that the government had grave concerns over the incident.
My Comment:
This is a very serious incident and it is a minor miracle that nobody was killed. The Russians were in the right here as threats against naval ships are extremely serious. Everyone remembers the USS Cole attack, and it was very possible that the Russians were thinking that this could have been another terrorist attack in the same style. Given how active the terrorism threat is right now, I wouldn't put it past ISIS or some other group to attack a Russian warship. And even if the threat from terrorism was zero, depending on the size of the Turkish vessel, a collision between the two ships could have damaged or even sunk the Smetlivy. It's a good thing that this Turkish ship backed off, because if they hadn't it is very likely that they would have been destroyed by the Smetlivy.
One wonders what the Turks are trying to accomplish here. I guess it is possible that there was some kind of communication error, or that the Turkish captain was just acting on his own. But the much more likely possibility is that this incident was engineered by the Turkish government. Ever since the downing of the Russian SU-24 in Syria, Turkey has engaged in a serious amount of saber rattling. They are doing their best to try and intimidate and punish the Russians for their role in the Syrian Civil War.
I've got news for the Turks. It's not going to work out well for them. Russia is led by Vladimir Putin. You can say many things about Putin, but you can not say he is the kind of coward that would back down from this kind of intimidation. Though he has shown quite a bit of restraint ever since the SU-24 incident, he is doing a lot to punish the Turks for their actions. Sanctions, tourism restrictions and axing business deals have all been enacted in response to Turkey's actions. And Russian Prime Minister, Dimity Medvedev, has already said that the SU-24 shooting was a casus belli for a war between the two countries...
There is a real danger that if Turkey keeps trying to rattle the Russians, they could cause a war. And war with a nuclear armed Russia would be no joke. Turkey might be alone if they did end up in the war. Yes they are a member of NATO, but it could be argued that the incident that kicked this whole thing off was a deliberate unfriendly offensive action. Sure, the Turks would argue that the plane was violating their airspace, but that happens all the time, and in most cases it ends with an escort or, at worst, a warning shot. Should an aggressive action by the Turks lead to an all out war, it's very possible that NATO wouldn't have their back. I know, for one, if Turkey got into a shooting war with Russia, I would be contacting my representatives to keep us out of the war. Assuming I even got the chance... I'm my city would most likely be on the target list for any nuclear war...
If a war were to happen between Russia and Turkey, it would be interesting to see how it would turn out. Well, perhaps interesting is the wrong word to use, because I would be terrified that it could involve the United States and that could lead to nuclear warfare. I think that is an outside possibility, so let's just assume that NATO doesn't back Turkey's play. What would a war between Russia and Turkey look like?
Turkey and Russia don't share a border and there are several unfriendly countries between them. I doubt Georgia, Armenia or Azerbaijan would allow either country to attack each other through their territory. Russia would have the Black Sea to launch strikes out of, and they could use their naval assets to attack Turkey. Turkey, in response, could close the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus straits. Doing so would cut off the Russian forces in Syria, which would could come under attack as well. Over all, I would expect naval and aerial battles, but little to no ground combat. I think both sides would be fairly evenly matched because as a NATO member, Turkey has advanced weapons. Turkish F-16's and F-15's would be a tough matchup against Russia's fighters, and I would expect that Turkey would have the advantage. But they would also have to deal with Russia's formidable navy, would could use cruise missiles to destroy those planes on the ground and destroy their bases.
I'm not sure who would win in a war between Turkey and Russia, but as a whole, everyone involved would lose. Obviously, the war would be a disaster for both the Russians and the Turks, both in terms of human life lost and economic damage. If Turkey were to close their straits, then the world economy would take a massive hit as well. A lot of trade goes through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits. NATO would lose no matter what, since they would be forced to decide whether to back Turkey or not. If they don't then the whole alliance could fall apart. If they do then they could end up in a shooting war with Russia, a war which could go nuclear, which would be the end of the world as we know it. Such an outcome is unthinkable, but certainly possible.
So will war between Russia and Turkey happen? I don't know, but it certainly seems like Turkey wants a war. Their ambitions in Syria, and their hatred of the Kurds, seems to be worth the risk for them. That is, quite frankly, insane. And that is what really scares me about this conflict. I don't think Recep Tayyip Erdogon is a rational actor. His way of thinking does not make any sense to me at all, and I wonder if he is mentally sound. If he has lost his mind, then there is no telling what he could do. And even if he is sane, Turkey has certainly taken a huge step back when it comes to civilized behavior.
I really think that it is beyond time to reconsider America's relationship with Turkey. I want them kicked out of NATO for their recent behavior. I don't think their recent actions are in anyway justified. They have no reason to fight the Russians, even if they have different goals in Syria. If countries as different as the United States, France, Israel and Russia can all share Syrian airspace, then I don't understand why Turkey can't as well. And I think Erdogon is a fool at best and a madman at worst. We don't need to work with him, and we should wash our hands with Turkey...
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