Switzerland raises their terror alert status due to possible ISIS militants. AFP

Swiss soldiers on patrol last February. AFP.

Switzerland has raised their terror alert status due to reports of possible Islamic State militants in Geneva. AFP. Police were searching for suspects, who may have connections to the terrorist attacks in Paris, France last month. Switzerland also reports a specific threat, and that they are searching for as many as four suspects. Though the suspects appear connected to the Paris attacks, it is unlikely any of the suspects have a direct link to perpetrators of that massacre. At the UN's European headquarters, offices were searched and evacuated while guards with submachine guns were posted at the gates. More officers were deployed at strategic points throughout Geneva. So far, Switzerland has not canceled a major festival to be held this weekend. 

My Comment:

I'm not sure how serious this threat is. Obviously the Swiss are taking it very seriously, and for good reason. The fact that they evacuated the European UN headquarters tells me they had a very specific threat. The UN headquarters would make a juicy target for ISIS as the UN is something that stands for everything ISIS hates. But now that the alert has been sounded, I doubt that will be the target anymore, if indeed the threat is real. 

Terrorists like to hit soft targets, and right now with dozens of cops posted at the UN, I doubt they would hit there. Much more likely are softer targets, like cafes, pubs or clubs. Though security has probably been picked up in those places as well, I would not be surprised if one was hit. There are dozens of other targets the terrorists could hit, so it will be very difficult for the Swiss to protect everything. And it is also possible that the Swiss are chasing after ghosts, or have been deliberately misled. 

Switzerland seems like an odd choice for a terrorist attack. After all, they are officially neutral and have never fought a war since the country was founded in 1815. Quite frankly, the Swiss are mostly harmless, unless you try and invade them. That isn't to say they are helpless, far from it. Most people in Switzerland have military training and the level of weapon ownership, though occasionally overstated by Americans, is much higher then most of Europe. In some ways Switzerland is more of a hard target then other countries in the region. Out of all the countries in Europe to attack, Switzerland seems like one of the most difficult to pull off a successful operation, along with the Czech Republic and a few other countries in Europe with looser gun laws. 

Still, the UN headquarters means that Switzerland is a major target for terrorist attacks. Striking a blow in Geneva would send a message to every member of the UN. Even the center of diplomacy for the civilized world is not safe from ISIS. It would not even have to be a successful attack, as any strike would send the same message. ISIS is strong, and we can hit your very foundations. 

It seems unclear if this particular cell that is active in Switzerland is related to the attackers in France, some of whom are still on the loose. It sounds like none of these people participated in the attack but it also sounds like they had some knowledge. My guess is that they are part of a wider European network that had some contact with each other during the attacks. Both the French cell and this cell must have communicated at some point, otherwise the Swiss would not say that there was a connection there.

That is bad fieldwork for these ISIS operatives. Though there is something to be said for cooperating to pull off larger attacks, once the Paris attacks happened, the cell involved should have broken up and not contacted anyone else. After all, they put the suspects in Switzerland in danger of being caught and may have completely disrupted an attack in Geneva. I am guessing someone screwed up and screwed up badly. If so, then this is a stroke of luck for everyone fighting ISIS. It's also possible that they did go silent but intelligence was gathered anyways after the attack. 

 I would not be surprised if there was another attack in Europe before this month is over. ISIS has been on an absolute rampage lately and major terrorist attacks seem to happen every couple of weeks. We might be due for another attack soon, and given all the activity in Europe right now, I would not be surprised if they were the ones being hit. To be fair, right now it seems like anyplace in the world could be hit by ISIS...

I also think the chances of a lone wolf attack happening are through the roof. Given all the massive coverage ISIS is getting in the media, and the way the US media has completely lost their minds over Donald Trump's recent comments, Islam and terrorism are in the news.  It would not be surprising if people are watching all this and are thinking to themselves that now is the time to attack. That's not to blame Trump for any attack that could occur, but you have to admit that he's brought the issue to a new level of relevance. I'm actually worried that the terrorists themselves might take a shot at him as well, but the threat goes way beyond just him. Indeed, just last week, a lone wolf terrorist stabbed some people in London. Fortunately, nobody died in that attack, but the next lone wolf attacker may be more successful...

Finally, I have to say that I haven't seen people this nervous about terrorism since 9/11. After the attacks happened, I got the impression that terrorist attacks would become an almost weekly happening. Due to the way Al-Qaeda planned their attacks, that did not come to fruition. But ISIS seems to be much more reckless and active then Al-Qaeda ever was. We really are to the point where it seems like there is a major terrorist attack, almost anywhere in the world, every couple of weeks. Sure, that was always the case in the various tinderboxes in the Middle East, but it wasn't really true globally. ISIS has uttered in a new age of much more effective terrorist attacks, with a much shorter cooldown between attacks. Part of me thinks that this rate of attacks can't possibly continue, but so far I have been wrong...