Benghazi burns in Libya during a battle between government forces and rebels, including ISIS. AFP.
ISIS's foothold in Libya is expanding and may end up being a base should they lose their territory in Iraq and Syria. AFP. After the collapse of the Libyan regime, the country has become a spawning ground for terrorist groups. In the chaos afterwards, ISIS was able to capture the city of Sirte, the former home of Momar Qadaffi. With Sirte and several other towns and villages captured by ISIS, it is feared that they will use the area as a base to attack further into Africa, including Chad, Niger and Sudan. ISIS is also using Libya as a base to plan an execute terrorist attacks, especially in the neighboring country of Tunisia where they have attacked three times this year so far. ISIS also has European ambitions, including the unrealistic one of reclaiming Spain, and the much more realistic one of infiltrating into Europe via Italy, which is just across the Mediterranean. However, Libya isn't quite as welcoming as Syria and Iraq are. Libya is a much poorer in both resources to exploit and population to draw taxes and recruits from. ISIS is also much more vulnerable to attack then they are in Syria and have to compete with at least two governments and multiple militia groups, including those loyal to al-Qaeda. Europe and the United States are not dealing with the threat, as almost all attention is focused on Syria and Iraq.
My Comment:
This is why ISIS is so very dangerous. Even if we were to completely destroy all of the forces ISIS has in Syria and Iraq, they would still control territory throughout the world. Libya is far from the only place outside of those two countries that ISIS has territory in. Their allies in Egypt control part of the Sinai Peninsula, where they just launched a major terrorist attack against a Russian Jet. In Yemen, ISIS has control of a few cities as well, and they are making inroads in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Palestine. And their Nigerian allies, Boko Haram, may offer up support for ISIS fighters as well.
And it't not like anyone is taking ISIS seriously either. Even though the UK joined the war, and the French and Russians have stepped up their commitments, ISIS is still in control of vast stretches of territory, holds billions of dollars in assets and own the fates of millions of people. Raqqa and Mosul still stand. And Ramadi, under siege, still stands as well. Only now are efforts underway to destroy their oil business, and even those efforts won't cripple the state. Ground troops will, but nobody will deploy them.
In Libya, ISIS is in a weaker position then they are in Syria and Iraq. They really only control Sirte and a few surrounding towns and villages. It is still an alarming amount of territory. Libya is a huge country and ISIS controls a decent chuck of the coast. The problem for ISIS is that there are so many other factions vying for the country as well. At least three other major factions, the two Libyan governments and other Islamic militants under the banner of Ansar al-Sharia. All of these factions fight each other and ISIS as well, and none of them are in a position to take and hold the entire country. ISIS is one of the smaller factions in Libya as well, with only 3000 to 5000 fighters.
Still, the threat isn't that ISIS is going to take over the entire country. It's the fact that they have yet another base to attack from. I do think that ISIS is planning to attack further into Africa. They want to link up with the Islamic militias there, and taking more territory is a major objective for them, even if that territory is largely useless to them. If they were to take territory in Niger or Chad, they could possibly link up with Boko Haram and have joint operations between the two groups. Right now, Boko Haram is an ISIS affiliate, but they have little in the way of direct contact with ISIS due to the geography involved. Still, such an offensive doesn't look very realistic at this time. They would need a much larger foothold and a large increase of troops in Libya to mount offensive operations to take and hold territory outside of it.
The much larger threat is terrorism. ISIS is already using Libya as a base to send out terrorist attacks to Tunisia. These attacks have been brutal and the Bardo Museum attack and the attacks in Sousse killed dozens of westerners. They were also a preview of the kind of tactics that ISIS would use in Paris France, and perhaps in San Bernadino as well. More attacks on Tunisia are coming, either targeting whatever Western tourists brave or foolish enough to visit the country or at the government itself.
Of greater concern is ISIS using Libya as a major base to attack Europe. ISIS has their hands in the human smuggling business that is shipping hundreds of thousands of migrants over the Mediterranean. It would be trivial for them to bring in a few attackers disguised as these migrants, and indeed, they have already done so. Libya is one of the main corridors for the migrant crisis, and it would be crazy if ISIS isn't exploiting it somehow. Even if it means they are just collecting money from the enterprise.
Another major terrorist attack is coming to Europe and I think it will happen soon. Maybe not before the year is over, but I would be stunned if ISIS doesn't pull something off before Winter is over. I'm actually kind of worried about the Pope. I have heard multiple reports of the Pope being threatened and plans being disrupted. But he is a huge target for ISIS and he is known to be a man of the people, highly vulnerable to assassination. Even if he isn't attacked, the Vatican and other tourist spots in Italy, are prime terror targets, and those attacks could be launched from Libya.
Again though, this is just for the attacks that ISIS is directly responsible for. The threat of more homegrown terrorists, like the ones in San Bernardino is sky high right now. ISIS has to do very little to pull off these attacks. Simply by existing they are inspiring these kinds of attacks. All they have to do is encourage them a little and dozens of radicalized Muslims could attack.
One thing is for sure, nobody is going to do anything with Libya. The United States has washed its hands of the disaster after the attack on the consulate in Benghazi that killed our ambassador there. After that happened everyone tried to pretend that Libya never happened. But it was all our fault. Taking out Qadaffi was a mistake as it brought chaos and destruction, two ingredients that always cause ISIS to thrive. And just a reminder, one of the main architects for this mess is currently running for president...
In Libya, ISIS is in a weaker position then they are in Syria and Iraq. They really only control Sirte and a few surrounding towns and villages. It is still an alarming amount of territory. Libya is a huge country and ISIS controls a decent chuck of the coast. The problem for ISIS is that there are so many other factions vying for the country as well. At least three other major factions, the two Libyan governments and other Islamic militants under the banner of Ansar al-Sharia. All of these factions fight each other and ISIS as well, and none of them are in a position to take and hold the entire country. ISIS is one of the smaller factions in Libya as well, with only 3000 to 5000 fighters.
Still, the threat isn't that ISIS is going to take over the entire country. It's the fact that they have yet another base to attack from. I do think that ISIS is planning to attack further into Africa. They want to link up with the Islamic militias there, and taking more territory is a major objective for them, even if that territory is largely useless to them. If they were to take territory in Niger or Chad, they could possibly link up with Boko Haram and have joint operations between the two groups. Right now, Boko Haram is an ISIS affiliate, but they have little in the way of direct contact with ISIS due to the geography involved. Still, such an offensive doesn't look very realistic at this time. They would need a much larger foothold and a large increase of troops in Libya to mount offensive operations to take and hold territory outside of it.
The much larger threat is terrorism. ISIS is already using Libya as a base to send out terrorist attacks to Tunisia. These attacks have been brutal and the Bardo Museum attack and the attacks in Sousse killed dozens of westerners. They were also a preview of the kind of tactics that ISIS would use in Paris France, and perhaps in San Bernadino as well. More attacks on Tunisia are coming, either targeting whatever Western tourists brave or foolish enough to visit the country or at the government itself.
Of greater concern is ISIS using Libya as a major base to attack Europe. ISIS has their hands in the human smuggling business that is shipping hundreds of thousands of migrants over the Mediterranean. It would be trivial for them to bring in a few attackers disguised as these migrants, and indeed, they have already done so. Libya is one of the main corridors for the migrant crisis, and it would be crazy if ISIS isn't exploiting it somehow. Even if it means they are just collecting money from the enterprise.
Another major terrorist attack is coming to Europe and I think it will happen soon. Maybe not before the year is over, but I would be stunned if ISIS doesn't pull something off before Winter is over. I'm actually kind of worried about the Pope. I have heard multiple reports of the Pope being threatened and plans being disrupted. But he is a huge target for ISIS and he is known to be a man of the people, highly vulnerable to assassination. Even if he isn't attacked, the Vatican and other tourist spots in Italy, are prime terror targets, and those attacks could be launched from Libya.
Again though, this is just for the attacks that ISIS is directly responsible for. The threat of more homegrown terrorists, like the ones in San Bernardino is sky high right now. ISIS has to do very little to pull off these attacks. Simply by existing they are inspiring these kinds of attacks. All they have to do is encourage them a little and dozens of radicalized Muslims could attack.
One thing is for sure, nobody is going to do anything with Libya. The United States has washed its hands of the disaster after the attack on the consulate in Benghazi that killed our ambassador there. After that happened everyone tried to pretend that Libya never happened. But it was all our fault. Taking out Qadaffi was a mistake as it brought chaos and destruction, two ingredients that always cause ISIS to thrive. And just a reminder, one of the main architects for this mess is currently running for president...
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