Iraqi military takes back part of Ramadi from the Islamic State. AFP

An Iraqi soldier with an RPG fighting in the outskirts of Ramadi. AFP.

Iraqi soldiers have retaken parts of the city of Ramadi from the Islamic State. AFP. Iraqi forces have taken the southern district of Al-Tameem, after battling ISIS for months. The Iraqis have gotten quite a bit of air support from the US led coalition, which has launched 45 airstrikes in the area this week alone. Iraqi spokesmen said that Al-Tameem has been completely cleared of ISIS fighters and claim that they are getting closer to taking the entire city. Though al-Tameem has been cleared of fighters, many dangers still remain. ISIS has continued to use their preferred tactic of planting bombs and booby traps in cities they have been forced from. Iraqi forces are now working hard at clearing these traps. 

My Comment:

It's too soon to say that Ramadi will fall to Iraqi security forces. But at least some progress is being made in the area. Iraqi forces have been dragging their feat in taking back the city. Ramadi was taken in large part because of incompetence by the Iraqi security forces, so it makes sense that they would have trouble taking back the city. They never should have lost it in the first place, but taking it back would be a major victory against ISIS. 

To be fair to the Iraqis, fighting in a city is about the most difficult thing you can do. City fighting is brutal, and greatly limits what you can do. Due to concerns about civilian casualties, you can't really use airstrikes or heavy armor in cities. Doing so isn't effective and can cause a horrible toll on the civilians unlucky enough to be caught in the crossfire. The Iraqis would also like to keep the city relatively intact. ISIS won't help with that but sending in airstrikes and tanks will level the city and mean that there is nothing worth saving after taking the city. ISIS may end up destroying much of the city anyways, due to their obsession with explosives and traps. 

The Iraqis have also taken quite a bit of territory from ISIS lately. ISIS used to control a huge portion of central Iraq, but the Iraqis have taken most of it back. ISIS only controls Ramadi, Fallujah and Hit in central Iraq, and all of those cities are largely cut off from the rest of ISIS forces. They aren't really in danger of losing those cities any time soon, but defending them will be much more difficult for ISIS unless they can open up their supply lines. 

Still, ISIS is in a strong position in Iraq. Most of what has been taken back from ISIS is small towns and villages, not major cities. That control is also dubious at best, while ISIS fighters are still able to operate and move through the territory they have taken back. And they still control Mosul and most of western Iraq. Though the Kurds have taken back Sinjar, there had been little other movement in the northern part of the country. And, of course, ISIS still controls much of Syria as well. As long as that is true, ISIS will be able to conduct operations and terrorist attacks throughout Iraq. 

I wonder how much US airstrike have effected the outcome of this battle. I already  mentioned that it's hard to use airstrikes in cities, but it seems like US forces are doing so anyways. Those 45 airstrikes seems to have given backbone to the Iraqi fighters. Though airstrikes can in no way win a battle alone, they can improve morale for the troops on the ground, who are the actual guys that won the battle. Indeed, one of the reasons ISIS was able to take Ramadi in the first place, was because a lack of US airstrikes do to weather conditions. Without US support, the troops on the ground broke and fled. Now that we are backing them, they seem to have improved their performance. I think the morale boost given to the Iraqi forces is probably a larger factor in the battle then the actual damage the airstrikes have done to ISIS. 

As for ISIS, losing Ramadi won't effect them all that much. There was  a point where they could have used the city as a jumping off point to attack Baghdad, but that time has passed. ISIS lost momentum during the summer, largely because fighting in summer in Iraq is a terrible idea. That killed their offensive dead, so Ramadi doesn't really matter all that much to them anymore. I don't see them advancing to Baghdad anytime soon. 

ISIS does care about taking and holding territory, but they are unique in that it doesn't matter nearly as much to them as you would think. Their main goals are damaging the Iraqi army and bringing in as many enemies to fight as possible. Losing Ramadi won't hurt either of those goals. And like I said, they still have massive stretches of territory in Iraq, Syria and Libya.  They will lose a tax base and an area for recruitment, but I'm not sure that holding it will be worth the costs for them. Better to withdraw, after leaving behind many snipers and traps, and attack other places.

Also, in the past ISIS has launched counter offensives after losing territory. ISIS main strategy, which is fairly basic if you think about it, is to hit the enemy where they weak. Losing Ramadi won't have much of an effect if Iraqi forces are weak enough elsewhere that they lose a different city. Right now the Iraqis are concentrating forces in south-central Iraq, where Ramadi, Fallujah and Hit are. Perhaps ISIS will launch a new offensive in north-central Iraq? 

Still, taking back Ramadi would be good news. It has been awhile since there has been a major victory in Iraq. Yes, the Kurds took back Sinjar, but that was the Kurds and not the Iraqi military. Taking Ramadi would be a huge morale boost for the Iraqis and may hurt the morale of ISIS. The Iraqis really need this win. Their morale has been destroyed, along with most of their army, due to the loss of Mosul and Ramadi. Taking back Ramadi won't fix the Iraqi Army. But it might give them back some of their pride...