Syrian Army in retreat in Shal al-Ghab. Reuters

A burned out vehicle in Syria. Yahoo/Reuters.

Facing a new advance in the critical Shal al-Ghab region, Syrian forces have retreated to a new defensive line. Reuters. The region is considered a gateway to the historical homeland of Bashar Al-Assad and the Alawite people. Rebels, including the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front have taken the high ground in the Shal al-Ghab region. With the high ground taken the rebels can direct artillery and anti-tank missiles at the original defensive line, so the Syrians have retreated to a second defensive line. Syrian officials admitted to pulling out, claiming that they will eventually re-take the areas the abandoned. The Syrian government now controls about a quarter of the country. Insurgents have threatened the Alawite homeland before, but they were pushed back. The difference this time is that the rebels are now armed with TOW anti-tank missiles. The weapons are strong enough to counter the governments strength in air power.

My Comment:

It sounds like the Syrian regime is in serious trouble. The key part of the country for them is the western coast, and it sounds like the rebels are moving in on the area. Seriously, the rebel offensive is like a dagger to the neck of the Syrian regime. If they can't hold out here, they lose the war. And they are running out of places to retreat too. 

I wonder if the regime will pull out of the outposts in the east that are cut off from the rest of the country. Places like Hasakah and Dier Er Zor have been surrounded for a long time and are a drain on Syrian resources. I am sure the Syrians don't want to abandon these areas, but they might not have a choice. Retreating would free up much needed troops and relieve the problems caused by trying to supply these areas. 

It is fairly worrying that the rebel groups that are threatening the Syrian regime are linked to al-Qaeda. Though the al-Nusra front is not quite as bad as ISIS, they are still a radical group. They also hate the Alawite sect since they are related to Shia Islam. If al-Nusra does finally destroy the regime, expect a massive slaughter. 

It is clear that the western weapons the rebels are getting provided with are having a major impact on the war. In the past, Syrian armor was the deciding factor in the war, along with airstrikes. The TOW missiles are a hard counter to Syrian tanks and APC's, neutering the regime's greatest advantage. Without the advantage of armor, the regime and the rebels are on an almost equal footing. Syria still has the advantage of air power, but even air power has its limits. 

Of course, if the Syrian regime is knocked out of the war, it won't be the end of the fighting. ISIS and al-Nusra will continue to fight each other and other factions won't lay down their arms either. The Kurds, secular Syrian rebels, the Druze in the south, and the Kurds in the North, all of them will keep fighting. I don't see the war ending anytime soon, even if the Syrian regime falls.

And I have to say, I would much rather see the regime survive. Bashar al-Assad is an evil man and he is responsible for many atrocities, but he is still better then ISIS and al-Qaeda. Given the choice, I would choose to live under a despotic secular regime instead of despotic religious one. ISIS have proven to be much more brutal then even the Syrian regime and I have little doubt that al-Nusra would be just as bad. But it seems like the most likely endgame is for one of the Jihadi groups winning a Pyrrhic victory against the regime as the rest of the country continues in civil war.