High tensions as North Korea puts its troops on a "war footing". Reuters

South Korean troops stand guard near the DMZ. Yahoo/Reuters.

Tensions are high in Korea as the North has put their military on a "war footing" in response to shelling. Reuters. Yesterday, North Korea fired four shells at propaganda speakers in the south. The South Koreans responded by firing 29 shells of their own. North Korea is demanding the speakers be removed but South Korea put them up in response to two of their troops being injured in a land mine incident which they blamed on the North. Other then the two men injured by the mine, no one was injured on either side during the skirmish. South Korean intelligence sources say the North may be preparing to fire short range missiles, but they may be fired into the sea in response to US-South Korean war games. The war games make it unlikely that the situation will escalate due to all the forces being in a ready state. 

My Comment:

Once again, North Korea is back to saber rattling. I seriously doubt that anything will come of this. We have all heard this story before and nothing ever really comes from it. The most likely worst case scenario at this point is a short artillery duel between the North and South. I just don't see it getting any worse then that. The best case, and most likely scenario, is that nothing major happens yet again. This is bluster, sound and fury signifying very little. 

Why? For one, North Korea would lose any war against the South. It would be terrible and destructive, but there is no way the regime would survive. North Korea has a huge army, but they are under armed, under trained and under fed. South Korea has a modern, well trained army with many new weapons. They also have the help of about 30,000 American troops along with naval and aviation assets. Any real war between North Korea would be a curbstomp battle that would end with the unification of Korea. 

And this is a very bad time for the North Koreans to do anything. The South Koreans and the Americans are doing their joint exercises right now, so they have even more forces ready to fight. These troops are strong enough to counter any real attack from the North. To attack now would be even stupider then a normal attack would be. 

And I doubt that there is actually any danger here. If there was going to be a major war, we would be hearing reports of massive troop movements, artillery getting readied and missiles being moved to launchpads. Sure the North is moving a few missiles around, but those will most likely be shot into the ocean. If you start to hear reports of the North Koreans actually moving troops to the front line, then you can worry. But right now there just isn't enough activity to indicate anything at all serious.

So what is really going on? My guess is that North Korea is playing the same game it always does. Rachet up the tension and when things look like they are on the brink of war, pull back in exchange for humanitarian aid. I posted awhile ago that North Korea is going through a drought right now, and I haven't heard anything about that situation improving. My guess is that they had crop failures this summer and are realizing that they aren't going to have food left to feed their people. Everyone in North Korea knows how bad it gets there when they run out of food, and it's in North Korea's best interest to make these threats to get humanitarian aid. 

Why don't they just ask for help? Well North Koreans are big on the concept of Juche, which roughly translates as self reliance. They want to maintain their independence and asking for aid would be admitting that they aren't as independent as they want to appear. In order to save face, they have to make it seem like they are obtaining the aid on their terms. So they make threats, shoot warning shots and plant mines. It's all a show just so they can save face.

Of course there is always a small chance that something could go wrong. Maybe a stray shot kills a lot more people then they intended. Maybe a local commander gets and itchy trigger finger. Maybe a couple of naval vessels get too close and one of them sinks. Any of these situations could happen and lead to an actual war. But that threat has been there for decades, and to date, both the North and South Koreans have pulled back from the brink. Here's hoping that good luck continues in the future.