ISIS takes responsibility for bombing a Cairo courthouse that wounded 29 people. Reuters.

A security official stands near the location of the blast. Yahoo/Reuters. 

ISIS has taken responsibility for bombing a courthouse in Cairo, Egypt. Reuters. The ISIS affiliate, Sinai Province, detonated a car bomb and wounded 29 people. The bombing was in retaliation for the execution of six militants who conducted an attack in Egypt last year. That attack in Arab Sharkas village, killed two officers in 2014. Sinai Province has been very active in Egypt and has killed hundreds of Egyptian police and soldiers since the 2013 counter-revolution. The blast was powerful enough that people throughout the city of Cairo felt and heard it. In response to the threat posed by ISIS and other militant groups Egypt has rolled out a campaign targeting them. The crackdown is the most severe in Egyptian history and has been condemned by human rights groups. 

My Comment:

First things first, it is amazing that nobody got killed in this bombing. From what I understand the bomb was powerful enough that it felt like an earthquake to the people in Cairo. Sure, 29 people got hurt, but you would think that someone would have been killed. Not that I am complaining, it's always good when a terrorist attack fails to kill anyone. It also sounds like the people that planted the bomb survived as well, which is significantly less good. It makes sense for ISIS to avoid suicide bombing when they can, and in this case there seemed to be no need for the bomber to die along with his bomb. I don't like it when ISIS does smart things and avoiding using suicide bombers when they don't necessarily have to use them is pretty smart. 

The Sinai branch of ISIS has gathered quite a few headlines lately. Their most recent atrocity was beheading a Croatian national. That murder didn't really get the press it could have gotten in the West. It's far from the only thing ISIS has done in Egypt. They have conducted several attacks on bases and checkpoints, murdered a high ranking prosecutor and conducted terror bombings. In short, ISIS is very active in Egypt. In my reckoning, only Iraq, Syria and Libya have had more ISIS activity, unless you count Boko Haram as part of ISIS instead of just an ally. 

So why is ISIS so active in Egypt? In short, it's because Egypt is so unstable. The revolution and counter-revolution left the country in chaos. Given that the first revolution ended with the Muslim Brotherhood in power it makes sense that a lot of people would be upset about the fact that they were replaced by yet another secular semi-dictator. Abdel Sisi isn't that much different then Hosni Mubarak, and his crackdown on militants isn't all that different then Mubarak's decades long state of emergency. All that leaves a lot of disillusioned young men, ripe for radicalization, and an insecure state to try and combat it. 

Of course the whole region is unstable. Egypt is right next to Libya and in the same general area as Iraq and Syria. ISIS has the ability to move their fighters from all four countries and I wouldn't be too surprised if the terrorists in Sinai get reinforced.  If they can make the kind of gains they have made in Syria and Iraq in Egypt, it would be the biggest prize they have collected so far. 

I don't think they can pull that off though. Even an unstable Egypt has a hugely powerful military with loads of modern military equipment. We have sold the Egyptians our most modern weapons for years and their military is fairly competent by regional standards. And ISIS only has 1000 to 2000 fighters in the country. In an out an out battle Egypt would destroy ISIS utterly. My guess is that ISIS will continue their current, underground, strategy. There will be more raids, more bombings and possibly more attacks on civilians or foreign targets and very few of the larger scale battles as seen in Iraq and Syria. 

I think the battle between Egypt and ISIS is going to heat up and I think ISIS will probably target western interests in the country as well. I don't know if those targets will be western tourists or western businesses or even both, but they will be hit. ISIS has already killed at least one Croatian man and I would not be surprised if they find more contractors or tourists to kidnap or kill. The worst case would be a major terror attack on any of the ancient ruins in Egypt. An attack on the Pyramids, for example, would not only have a profound psychological effect on the whole damn world, and it would completely destroy Egypt's tourist industry.

That's why it is so important for Egypt to fight ISIS. The crackdown that Egypt is currently undergoing probably does undermine or counter the goals of the revolution that toppled Mubarak, but at this point what can they do? They either crackdown or lose their country. My hope is that they succeed and destroy the Sinai Province branch. But it won't happen soon and it's going to be a bloody, terrible war.