Pro-Russian rebels are threatening the city of Maruipol... again. AFP

Rebel tanks on the way to Mariupol. Yahoo/AFP.

Ukraine is reporting heavy battles with pro-Russian rebels near the critical port city of Mariupol. AFP. On Ukrainian soldier was killed and three more were injured in fresh clashes north of the city. The battle is over the highway between Donetsk and Mariupol. Currently the government controls the road, but if the rebels were to capture it, they could use it to target the city directly. Mariupol is critical for several reasons, not the least of which is its economic importance. But it also would provide a land bridge to the recently annexed Crimean Peninsula. Heavy rocket and mortar fire started last Monday and has continued throughout the week. The battle is considered one of the largest since the signing of the cease fire last February. In total the war in Ukraine has killed 6,800 people and displaced a 1.4 million more. 

My Comment:

The war in the Donbass region of Ukraine has certainly fallen off of the radar of the media and it is rare to hear anything about it in the news. But even though there was a cease-fire, the war never really did not stop. It continued as a low intensity conflict. After the lines stabilized after the cease fire, there has been little in the way of movement. That hasn't stopped both sides from taking pot shots at each other. Artillery duels and small unit actions are common place. 

It sounds like this could be a bit more serious. Even if the shelling wasn't described as some of the most fierce of the war post cease fire, the location alone shows the potential for a major battle to break out. Mariupol was a major goal for the rebels before they signed the cease fire and made a major push that didn't quite make it to the city right before the cease fire. 

So why is Mariupol so important? Well, like the article said, it's a major economic city and the link to Crimea. The rebels improve their situation greatly if they can gain that corridor to Crimea. That would pretty much win them the war because I think Russia would be more willing to guarantee the independence of Donbass, or annex them completely, if they can secure a land route to supply Crimea. Though Russia has a long history of oddly cut off portions of their territories, Kaliningrad is a great example, they must want to get a land bridge to Crimea. 

But will a larger battle erupt? Honestly, I don't know. I don't know if the rebels want to start the war up again and risk more international condemnation. Vladimir Putin doesn't seem as concerned about the war as he once was and it just doesn't seem like the time for a major offensive to happen. On the other hand, Russia and Putin exert less influence on the rebels then most western media gives them credit for. It's possible that the rebels could go off on their own and try to finally win the war. 

There is always another x-factor that could change the conditions on the ground. My pick for that would be Ukraine's ultra-nationalist militias. I posted awhile back about how the Right Sector, a far right ultra-nationalist army/political party, was threatening the government over issues of corruption and military control. And the Right Sector is hardly the only far-right or neo-Nazi group working in Ukraine right now. 

It is very possible that a second civil war could break out. The relations between the far right groups and the government are not exactly cordial right now. The battalions have a point that they are basically the only thing standing in the way for the rebels winning independence and that the government is corrupt. But they are still essentially Nazis. That puts them at odds with everyone else in the region. The government only tolerates them because they have too. 

Any disruption or rebellion in the west of the country would greatly strengthen the rebellion in the east. And it wouldn't even have to be a civil war. These far right armies could just withdraw, leaving the Ukrainian military to fight the rebels alone. I don't see them winning if that happens. 

I still say the most likely end state for this war is for an independent Donbass. Ukraine is too poor, too corrupt and too weak militarily to take back the region by force. The rebels have a powerful ally and the Ukrainians have only received limited aid. My guess is that Donbass will be independent within five years as a vassal state of Russia or they will be annexed completely like Crimea was.

I also have to wonder what kind of impact the U.S. presidential election could have on the war. A few candidates have made noise about supplying weapons to the Ukrainians but by the time someone is elected it would probably be too late to matter. And there is no guarantee that the new president would be able to get congress to go along with it. 

Actually, my hope is for the new cold war dying as soon as Obama gets out of office. Unlike many Americans, I'd rather be allied with Russia then Ukraine. I was never comfortable with interfering with the Ukraine conflict, and I feel Obama handled the situation poorly to say the least. Hopefully, if Donbass is in Russian hands, there will be no more reason for us to risk war with Russia...