North Korea facing a massive drought. Worst in 100 years. International Business Times.

Kim Jong Un in a rice field. IBT/Reuters

North Korea is facing the worst drought in recent memory, and with it comes fears of starvation. International Business Times. 30% of North Korea's rice fields are too dry to sustain growth. Total crop production could drop as much as 20%. Water levels in lakes, rivers and reservoirs have dropped immensely as well. The drought is especially devastating because North Korea is already dependent on food imports on survival. Even in the best of days 70% of the population of North Korea suffers from food insecurity. 1/3rd of the children in North Korea already suffer from stunted growth due to malnutrition. This is not the first time that North Korea has had to deal with food insecurity. In the mid to late 90's millions died due to famine. Afterwords, the government made some adjustments to farming, and allowed local farmers more autonomy. North Korea's food production was still poor even after the improvements. 

My Comment:

Not good news out of North Korea. The country has had some truly horrific famines in the past. The one in the 1990's was something out of a horror movie, even compared to everyday life in North Korea under normal circumstances. People were so hungry that their were widespread reports of cannibalism. The people that were starving weren't just the people in the concentration camps. They wer the normal citizens, and they had nothing to eat. Millions died, and even the North Korean government admitted the scale of the disaster. 

Can it happen again? I think it is possible. North Korea is better at agriculture then it was but they still aren't very good at it. And even if they were good at it, look at how bad droughts have effected a modern country like America. The droughts a few years ago in Texas did huge damage to our beef industry and the drought in California is having an impact on food production as well. For a healthy, comparatively well run country like America, these are minor setbacks. They have a price but it's one we can pay. For a basket case country like North Korea, it's a price they can't pay.

In order to avert a huge humanitarian disaster, aid needs to start flowing into North Korea and it needs to happen fast. Acting now could save thousands, or even millions of lives. But I doubt they will get enough of what they need. North Korea has managed to offend and alienate everyone else in the region. Very few people will advocate for the survival of the North Korean people. After all, it is largely their fault that they are in this position, and nobody likes helping people that are largely responsible for their fate. And their is the moral question if it is right to help people if helping people means the continued existence of the North Korean regime.

So why cover the drought if nobody is going to care? Well, for one thing, even if the North Koreans haven't done anything to get rid of their terrible incompetent government, they are still people. Nobody deserves to starve to death. Nobody. And given how terrible the 1990's drought was, it would be a good thing to avoid that amount of suffering again. 

The other factor is that famine is one of the most reliable indicators of instability and war. Though I think it is extremely unlikely for their to be a rebellion in North Korea, food scarcity is a major factor in that kind of unrest. Indeed, it has been theorized that the Arab Spring had more to do with high global food prices then any other factor. I don't see a change in government in North Korea, but there could be unrest. Which means more people in camps and more pointless deaths. There is little chance that any rebellion could succeed without major outside help, but one might happen anyways if the food situation becomes dire enough. 

War is also a possible outcome. It isn't likely because I am sure that even Kim Jong Un knows that he would be destroyed in any real war. But desperate times occasionally result in desperate measures. It wouldn't have to be an intentional war. North Korea has a long history of doing terrible things to get what they want. More often then not this involves some kind of military skirmish. Let's say they want food aid and in order to get it they conduct a cross border raid or torpedo a patrol ship. That could easily spiral into a war that neither side would want.

These kind of conflicts are always at risk of spiraling out of control, but their frequency has lessened lately. But if North Korea ends up with famine they may be more willing to do something stupid. The risks might be higher but the rewards are not having your people starve and/or rise up against you. That makes the potential costs a lot easier to ignore. After all, if you are already going to lose everything, there is no point in not risking everything for a small chance of success a skirmish could gain. There is a good chance that the whole thing blows up in their face though.

Still, North Korea has dealt with this kind of issue before and they haven't really been anymore antagonistic then they have been normally. That is to say that there is always a chance that North Korea could cause some kind of war or conflict just because they like to play a dangerous game. They antagonize and then negotiate. It just seems that war is always averted somehow, no matter how unlikely peace is, it always seems to prevail in Korea. I do think that the drought could increase the chances of a conflict in the region, but I still think that the most likely position is the status quo, only with more people starving to death. I'd say that instead of a 95% chance of nothing happening in North Korea this year, be it a war, regime change or major skirmish, it's now down to 90%.