Calls for urgent action against Ebola, the mathematics of the situation are not looking good at all. -Wired

Chart showing the growth of the virus. Wired/Eurosurveillance 

The mathematics of the Ebola outbreak paint a grim picture and international response is needed to prevent a disaster. -Wired. Scientists have tried to determine the so called reproductive number for Ebola in a new study published in Eurosurveillance (the EU's CDC). The R0 number is a measure of how many people each infected person infects on average. If the R number is less then one then the disease will die out. Unfortunately the R0 number is at the very least one and in many cases it is as high as two. So for every infected patient at least one more person will get sick and it's possible that two will on average. Using these numbers Scientists estimate that there will be between 77,000 and 270,000 cases by the end of the year. Other scientists have  discussed the possibility of the virus going airborne, which, due to the high rate of infection and unprecedented size of the outbreak, is higher then ever. Both reports recommend a massive international response involving the United States and other governments armies. 

My Comment:

I already discussed the possibility of Ebola going airborne in this post. To recap, it's certainly possible and if it happens that's pretty much the end of everything. We might survive as a species, but there wouldn't be all that many of us left. As for the estimates, I tend to believe them. If anything they are conservative. The raw number of cases per month has been roughly doubling and the rate for Liberia is just insane. At the beginning of August they had 468 cases but by the end of the month hey had 1698, more then tripling the number of cases. The numbers are incredibly grim and I'm officially predicting the breakdown of civil society in Liberia, at the very least, before the end of the year. 

The situation is dire but is the world going to do what it takes to prevent this? At this point it might be too late. The time for a massive military and political response was a couple of months ago. It's just too widespread now, especially in Liberia. When ever they open a new clinic it's full by the end of the day and people are driving around in taxis desperately trying to find help, and spreading the disease. The only way I see stopping the virus is to completely quarantine effected areas. Liberia tried that in the West Point slum. It failed after the civilians there rioted and broke the quarantine. Some people got shot and they still fled. The government then just gave up and let the people roam free. The situation is totally out of control and only an massive effort, with military as well as medical resources, might make a difference. Either that or a lucky random mutation that makes the disease either less deadly or infectious. We can't rely on that so the world needs to wake up and do something.

As someone in a living in a first world country with a decent medical system, I've upgraded my "alert level" for this disease. I'm seriously considering buying supplies, not so much from fear of the disease itself but for the impact it will have in the world. Should the virus make it out of Africa there will be huge economic and political consequences. Food shortages, job losses, trade and travel restrictions, widespread civil unrest, all of it could be coming. I'm not 100% sure that it will happen but the chances are getting better everyday. Of course if the virus does go airborne, none of it will matter because my line of work is probably at a higher risk of infection then for other professions. I'll either die right away or survive only to see the world burn around me.