How and why Ebola is destroying West Africa. -Vox.

Chart showing actual and projected cases for Ebola. Vox/HealthMap.

Vox takes a look at how the worst case scenario for 277,000 to 1.4 million cases of Ebola by the end of winter could come to pass. The article details how difficult it is to track people with the virus in an outbreak of this size where infected people have contact with dozens of potential victims. They also detail how difficult it is to find healthcare workers and volunteers to fight the disease. Doctors and nurses are also walking of the job. The economic consequences of Ebola are dire, leading to food shortages, job losses and possible permanent long term damage to the economy. Health care, already a sore spot for West Africa, has essentially been destroyed, leading to many more deaths from preventable and treatable diseases, which also feeds the Ebola epidemic. Finally, the fear of Ebola and the violence and instability it causes could lead to isolation and the withdrawal of international business and aid organizations. The only good news is that Nigeria and Senegal have managed, for now, to beat back the virus. 

My Comment:

I'll focus on the good news first. It's true that Nigeria and Senegal have manged to stop the spread of the virus, at least for now. There is always a chance that they missed someone or that a new refugee could come to those countries with the virus, but for now it seems like they dodged a bullet. That is good news for them and if other countries in the region end up with new cases of Ebola they can learn from what they did. It's the only hope to keep this from becoming a wider outbreak. 

As for Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, the situation is almost beyond hope. The Vox piece points a picture of a society coming apart at the seems. Ebola isn't just  deadly disease that kills more then 50% of the people it infects. It is also war, famine and economic disruption. It is killing West Africa as surely as a nuclear bomb would. If the worst case scenario does come true then it's pretty much over for them. The population of the three West African nations is about 20 million people so if 1.4 million people are infected that's 15% of the population. Most of those people would die. And that's not counting all the deaths from other diseases, civil unrest, starvation and possibly even war. 

As for U.S. and international intervention, I don't see it working. If it had happened months ago then it might have made a difference but at this point it is probably too little to late. Every time they open a new Ebola clinic they are flooded with patients, many of them that don't have the disease but can't get treatment because everywhere else is either closed or overwhelmed. There aren't enough volunteers and the African civilians are getting even more hostile to foreigners due to superstition and prejudice. It is an almost hopeless situation and it is going to get worse before it gets better.